Yet another west shift in the latest models

[logybogy]

GFDL has a New Orleans hit now.

[gatorcane]

[Brent]

Heck... at this point it may go well west of New Orleans.

[tronbunny]

It appears that the slower the forward motion over the next 24-48 hours... the further east it will landfall. (just a natural observation)...
So, would a west of NOLA scenario be less catastrophic?

[Opal storm]

I'm not totally convinced.I remember during Dennis the models showed a LA landfall,very much like this run and then the next day they were all back over the panhandle.

We'll see though.

[tallywx]

As we all know from Isidore in 2002, a storm being forced SW can stall and turn north on a dime (without any model predicting such). No one is safe on the Gulf Coast.

[StormWarning1]

The models predicted the stall and north turn

[hicksta]

Most updated take it to central La

[BayouVenteux]

I'm not totally convinced.I remember during Dennis the models showed a LA landfall,very much like this run and then the next day they were all back over the panhandle.

We'll see though.

Agree. Too slow a forward speed and too much real estate to cover to get into a lather over current model runs. IMHO we're all in for a long day or two of watching the model tracks flail about like a garden hose with a stuck spray nozzle. I'd venture to guess that by Sunday evening we'll have a much clearer and more stable run-to-run model consensus developing.

[cjrciadt]

As we all know from Isidore in 2002, a storm being forced SW can stall and turn north on a dime (without any model predicting such). No one is safe on the Gulf Coast.

It was heading to the BOC, and turned on a dime literally.

[TS Zack]

[Florida_TSR]

This is not a surprise that the trend is west. This is due to the current motion - WSW. Look for the NHC to make another shift west @ 11 PM.

[Wthrman13]

As we all know from Isidore in 2002, a storm being forced SW can stall and turn north on a dime (without any model predicting such). No one is safe on the Gulf Coast.

StormWarning is right, the models in general did predict that stall (even the southward jog) and the subsequent north turn days in advance.

[PTrackerLA]

The S*** is gonna hit the fan tomorrow in south Louisiana. This is NOT good.

[Frank P]

The S*** is gonna hit the fan tomorrow in south Louisiana. This is NOT good.

big time if these model runs continue through the night.... I think the NHC will move the track west again at 11 with landfall somewhere between NO and the MS/LA line.... a majority of the models currently are west of the NHC 5 pm track....

[tallywx]

As we all know from Isidore in 2002, a storm being forced SW can stall and turn north on a dime (without any model predicting such). No one is safe on the Gulf Coast.

StormWarning is right, the models in general did predict that stall (even the southward jog) and the subsequent north turn days in advance.

Not quite. When Isidore was at the longitude that Katrina is currently, this is what they had predicted:

INITIAL 20/0300Z 21.0N 82.5W 75 KTS
12HR VT 20/1200Z 21.7N 83.5W 85 KTS
24HR VT 21/0000Z 22.5N 84.5W 95 KTS
36HR VT 21/1200Z 23.0N 85.5W 100 KTS
48HR VT 22/0000Z 23.5N 86.5W 105 KTS
72HR VT 23/0000Z 24.0N 87.0W 105 KTS


No south jog at all forecasted there.

[cajungal]

Worst possible track for New Orleans. And since I live just southwest of New Orleans, I would be on the bad side of it as well if that were to verify. Reminds me of Andrew!

[Brent]

GFDL predicting a 152 mph Strong 4 nearing New Orleans...

[feederband]

IMO Its going to go way west....If it continues wsw will it miss the trough all together...?

[PTrackerLA]

This is looking more and more like Louisiana's BIG ONE. I'm praying it's not New Orleans' BIG ONE. I just called a good friend of mine in New Orleans and told her to be ready to leave tomorrow or she's going to be stuck in horrible traffic if she waits too late .