Northerly Component May Have Begun

[One Eye]

According to the latest sat pictures, the dreaded northerly component has begun. Even if (and thats a big "if") landfalls in southeast Lousiana, people here in south Mississippi will be in the right quadrant with considerable damage. Well folks its time for me to board up.

[saracop]

well I have watched both Ivan and Dennis come and go. Ivan was to be a AL/MS border storm just 24 hours before landfall as per NHC then it hits some 50 to 75 miles east. Then Dennis a Mobile/Baldwin strom just 24 hours before land fall it to goes 50 to 75 miles east at the least. After living through both I don't feel to good with the NHC saying NOLA since it is only 125 miles from Mobile. If they stay on track that put it in MS and Mobile on the east side not good. I hope the people in Mobile don't take this storm lightly. Also I will be praying for who ever has to end up dealing with Katrina.

[Steve]

Hey man, you might want to edit your title to say northerly component "might have begun". The latest vortex fix is actually south and east of the prior fix. The eyewall replacement cycle seems to have temporarily stalled the system which should either resume the western track, begin the curve to the WNW or maybe send it on another track. But making a proclamation as though it was a fact is kind of frowned upon by the big dogs during a real threat.

Steve

[ROCK]

Hey man, you might want to edit your title to say northerly component "might have begun". The latest vortex fix is actually south and east of the prior fix. The eyewall replacement cycle seems to have temporarily stalled the system which should either resume the western track, begin the curve to the WNW or maybe send it on another track. But making a proclamation as though it was a fact is kind of frowned upon by the big dogs during a real threat.

Steve

no doubt,,please edit....

[Steve]

Agreed Rock. The title is the epitome of what wxman57 was saying earlier. We amateurs should only be presenting evidence or clearly labling our posts with a disclaimer - not claiming something as fact.

Steve

[mtm4319]

I doubt it'll be edited for an hour or so. Didn't you read that he was boarding up?

[Steve]

I missed that part but Southern Mississippi stands to take a wallop whether Katrina hits SE LA or not - so I don't blame him. I'm not boarding up personally because my house has way too many windows and I don't have anywhere to store plywood. On the severe off-chance I would have to rebuild in the future, I would put in rolldown shutters or some other type of built-in protection.

Steve

[Matthew Williams]

Steve. Looking at vortex obs I am getting a .1N and .07W. I understand about the disclaimer in this case so no one lets their gaurd down but how are you getting a south movement? I am not trying to start anything I am just seeing if I missed something?

EDIT: The movement I am getting has been from the last 2 hours.

[One Eye]

I'm also getting the same bearing points also. Just looking at the expansion envelop to the north west dictates a more wnw motion. Me and hopefully everyone in this watch area should be preparing.

[ROCK]

I missed that part but Southern Mississippi stands to take a wallop whether Katrina hits SE LA or not - so I don't blame him. I'm not boarding up personally because my house has way too many windows and I don't have anywhere to store plywood. On the severe off-chance I would have to rebuild in the future, I would put in rolldown shutters or some other type of built-in protection.

Steve

Steve, not familiar with your location but you stated roll down shutters so I presume your close to the GOM?? are you heading out??

[One Eye]

I live 10 miles north of I-10 but also live by several bayous. I made reservation in Hattiesburg just in case. Tomorrow we will all have a better picture of where this storm will go.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Katrina is undergoing an eyewall replacement. Looks to have bumped a little nw but should continue on a more westerly course later this evening. Flow in the gulf is still mainly easterly.