New Computer Models

[samanthahunter]

I have never posted before but am an avid reader. When will new computer models be out and do you expect any changes?

[Brent]

I have never posted before but am an avid reader. When will new computer models be out and do you expect any changes?

Within the next half hour... new GFDL is already out and is right with the NHC going directly over New Orleans...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_12.gif

It'll say 0z something by each model when they are updated...

[skysummit]

I believe this is the latest plot. They seemed to have shifted a tad west with the latest runs.

[jopatura]

Each model has a different time it comes out. Not quite sure on the run times though. I don't expect much difference other then the models tightening up over one spot. I just don't see the swing east or west like other posters have been calling for. NHC wouldn't call the doomsday scenario for NOLA if they weren't damn sure.

[WindRunner]

First, welcome to Storm 2k.

The computer models are being run right now and could already be out, I haven't checked. However, to look at them plotted on a map you will have to wait until 8:45 EDT at least.

[Brent]

Is the 18z run from this afternoon... 0z is what we're waiting on.

[samanthahunter]

Thanks for Info- Brent where are u in AL? I am in Mobile. Are you making any preparations?

[Brent]

Thanks for Info- Brent where are u in AL? I am in Mobile. Are you making any preparations?

Well inland... near Auburn on the far east side of the state. At this time, I'm watching closely but not expecting anything too bad(some squalls, maybe a tornado threat). This doesn't look like an Ivan unless the landfall is considerably farther east...

Ivan brought several hours of near hurricane force gusts here... it was not pretty. Lost power for about 24 hours and we weren't anywhere close to the eye...

[Thunder44]

191
WHXX01 KWBC 280023
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE KATRINA (AL122005) ON 20050828 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050828 0000 050828 1200 050829 0000 050829 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.9N 85.9W 25.7N 87.6W 27.0N 89.5W 28.5N 90.9W
BAMM 24.9N 85.9W 25.8N 87.7W 27.0N 89.6W 28.3N 90.9W
A98E 24.9N 85.9W 25.4N 87.1W 26.5N 87.9W 28.8N 88.1W
LBAR 24.9N 85.9W 25.6N 87.5W 27.1N 88.9W 29.1N 89.5W
SHIP 100KTS 110KTS 123KTS 130KTS
DSHP 100KTS 110KTS 123KTS 130KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050830 0000 050831 0000 050901 0000 050902 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.5N 91.5W 35.4N 90.3W 40.0N 82.4W 45.3N 69.6W
BAMM 30.1N 91.0W 34.9N 89.0W 39.3N 81.2W 43.7N 70.0W
A98E 32.0N 86.7W 35.8N 78.5W 40.7N 67.3W 42.8N 51.7W
LBAR 31.7N 89.3W 37.1N 84.6W 43.5N 74.4W 48.3N 56.9W
SHIP 131KTS 117KTS 97KTS 67KTS
DSHP 85KTS 33KTS 29KTS 30KTS

[beachbum_al]

Brent where near Auburn. I lived in Auburn for 5 years. My husband has a farm in Macon County.

Samanthahunter,
I am right across from the water. Look out and across Mobile Bay and you might just see me. Actually I am in Fairhope but live closer to the Bay and Fish River.

Right now we are just watching and tomorrow we are going to start boarding up our house. DH is down in Orange Beach taking care of his family's place on the beach.

[Brent]

Slight eastward shift on some...

[truballer#1]

is gfdl still showing a cat 5 hurricane?

[Ivanhater]

Slight eastward shift on some...

[samanthahunter]

Cool. I am in sales and my territory is Baldwin County so I am very familiar with your area.

Brent- I'll take you word for it that those number models mean it shifted eastward. I am weather retarded and need a map. LOL

[Brent]

Cool. I am in sales and my territory is Baldwin County so I am very familiar with your area.

Brent- I'll take you word for it that those number models mean it shifted eastward. I am weather retarded and need a map. LOL

Overall it still says New Orleans... couple are farther east(not exactly models I'd rely on... but).

[WindRunner]

SHIPS bumped that 130kts call up 12 hours, maybe it sees something even more conducive for strengthening now.

[mvtrucking]

Question. Could someone please tell me the best place to get the models? At the NHC site what do you click on? Or a link would be great. (The place I usually go to takes forever and a day to update. Thanks in advance.

MV

[Opal storm]

Is there a graphic of the new runs?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I sure do not like the way BAMD and BAMM are looking right right now. Landfall near Morgan City then going very near Baton Rouge. That would be horrible for all of SE LA. Grand Isle and New Orleans would catch the entire right quad.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I sure do not like the way BAMD and BAMM are looking right right now. Landfall near Morgan City then going very near Baton Rouge. That would be horrible for all of SE LA. Grand Isle and New Orleans would catch the entire right quad.