TD 13 Advisories=11 AM=Last Advisorie

[cycloneye]

5 PM EDT the first advisorie.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2005



data from a new NOAA buoy...41041...located in the tropical Atlantic
have helped to determine that a weak but large surface circulation
has developed in association with the tropical wave east of the
Lesser Antilles. The deep convection is disorganized and is located
mostly to the west and southwest of the circulation due to
northeasterly shear. Initial intensity is set at 25 knots and only
slight strengthening is indicated in the forecast. The
depression could reach tropical storm status during the next few
days. SHIPS model is a little more aggressive and brings the
cyclone to 62 knots.

Initial motion is highly uncertain since the depression is in its
formative stage. There are several circulation centers rotating
around a larger gyre and any of them...especially the one farther to
the north...could become the dominant center. The best estimate of
the initial motion is 300 degrees at 11 knots. Currently the
depression is located on the southwestern edge of the subtropical
ridge and this pattern should keep the cyclone on a general
west-northwest track well north of the Lesser Antilles. The
depression will likely turn to the northwest by the end of the
forecast period due to a weakness in the ridge which is forecast to
be placed along 65 degrees west.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 28/2100z 15.4n 46.8w 25 kt
12hr VT 29/0600z 16.0n 48.5w 25 kt
24hr VT 29/1800z 17.0n 50.5w 25 kt
36hr VT 30/0600z 18.0n 53.0w 30 kt
48hr VT 30/1800z 19.0n 55.0w 35 kt
72hr VT 31/1800z 20.5n 58.5w 35 kt
96hr VT 01/1800z 22.0n 61.0w 35 kt
120hr VT 02/1800z 24.0n 64.0w 35 kt

[cjrciadt]

Lee by Tuesday, terrific,

[krysof]

Looks like a potential EC threat. Once it get's closer to land masses, it could strengthen more.

[WindRunner]

...
There are several circulation centers rotating
around a larger gyre and any of them...especially the one farther to
the north...could become the dominant center.
...

I remember something like that in one of Katrina's first advisories.
Not making suggestions, just a note . . .

[cyclone_eye]

TD13 won't be a problem to the islands, possibly Bahamas and then Bermuda. It is moving around the periphery of high pressure area.

"TD14" behind will follow similar path. Islands out of the woods for the foreseeable future. Bahamas will not be as lucky.

[cycloneye]

TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132005
0300Z MON AUG 29 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 47.4W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 47.4W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 46.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.9N 48.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.1N 50.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.2N 52.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.4N 54.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 24.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 25.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 47.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITHIN THE
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN...WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAIN UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
PROBLEMATIC. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST DISSIPATION WITHIN
48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. SHIPS SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE BY MID
PERIOD...GRADUALLY BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO 61 KT IN 120 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
GFDL...INDICATING SLOW STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 48
HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/10. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST
A RELATIVELY SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH IN 48 HOURS NEAR 54W JUST
BEFORE DISSIPATION. ANOTHER POSSIBLE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM
COMPLETELY SHEARS FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND CONTINUES ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS BETA ADVECTION MODELS...THE
GFDL...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CALLING FOR A GRADUAL TURN
NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 15.9N 47.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 16.9N 48.7W 25 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 18.1N 50.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 19.2N 52.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 20.4N 54.8W 35 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 22.5N 58.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 24.0N 60.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 25.5N 62.0W 35 KT

[wxwatcher91]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 290838
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON AUG 29 2005

...DISORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN EXPECTED TO PASS
WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST OR ABOUT
795 MILES...1280 KM... EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...16.8 N... 49.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART

[wxwatcher91]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 290910
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS BECOME RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
THIS MORNING. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY 41040
SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE MORE THAN ONE CIRCULATION BENEATH THE
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. AT THE MOMENT...THE DOMINANT
CIRCULATION SEEMS TO BE NEAR THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER. HOWEVER... IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE CENTER WERE
TO BE RELOCATED FURTHER SOUTHWEST IN VISIBLE IMAGERY WHERE THE BUOY
INDICATED A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 10 KT. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE
25 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...SUPPORTING A 25 KT INITIAL INTENSITY.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...INDICATING GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITHIN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/12. THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH BY 72 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AS A SHEARED SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS
SOLUTION.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 16.8N 49.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 17.8N 51.0W 25 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 19.3N 53.2W 30 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 20.7N 55.3W 30 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 22.0N 57.3W 35 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 23.7N 59.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 25.5N 61.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 27.0N 63.0W 35 KT


$$

[Frank2]

Looks like TD13 it might be a recurving system (and the disturbance behind it as well, since the TWO has that already moving WNW), so, as someone here said a few weeks ago, due to the mid-Atlantic trough, the systems that might be of consequence will be those forming closer to the U.S. - like Katrina.

Frank

[cycloneye]

TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON AUG 29 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST OR ABOUT 745
MILES...1200 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR
16 MPH ...26 KM/HR.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...IN A FEW
SQUALLS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...18.5 N... 50.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER AVILA


675
WTNT43 KNHC 291422
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS DEGENERATED INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL WERE CORRECT IN SUGGESTING
THAT THIS CYCLONE WAS NOT GOING TO DEVELOP FURTHER. THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL PRODUCING DISORGANIZED PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 19.0N AND 51.5W.
THEREFORE...THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 18.5N 50.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 30/0000Z 20.0N 52.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING


Last advisorie.

[cjrciadt]

Another TD10 I'm I stuck in that bad movie Groundhog Day????

[apocalypt-flyer]

Hopefully this one will dissipate for GOOD.

[Josephine96]

RIP #13

[krysof]

could still regenerate

[JtSmarts]

TD 13 was jealous of the attention Katrina was getting so it committed stormocide.

[fci]

could still regenerate

Oh, here we go again.
A 150 page thread on a dead TD!!!!

[Brent]

Not that I'm saying this will... but Katrina partially came from a long-dead TD.

[cjrciadt]

could still regenerate

Oh, here we go again.
A 150 page thread on a dead TD!!!!

We know where that lead too....