Some Models lowering pressure of W and Central GOM

[KatDaddy]

Anything showing potential development is disturbing after Katrina.

AVN:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

NOGAPS:
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[Mathias]

We definitely do not need this. A strike on the SETX area would devastate the area almost as severely as in the North Gulf states and drive the gas prices to untenable levels: we would see gas prices at $10.00 per gallon or higher. I hope our drought continues for some time in SETX, and that every single storm becomes a fish or fails entirely for the whole US. Wishful thinking.

[HouTXmetro]

I failed to see anything developing on those models.

But who knows....

[hicksta]

You need to realize models arent very acurate that far out..

[deltadog03]

they might not be, but....i do believe this is what Dr. Lyons was talking about last night....he is very nervous about the gulf right now

[vaffie]

I actually think that it's depressingly plausible. The model does not appear to 'make something form in the west and central gulf of mexico'. It actually appears to carry the low pressure from the Bahamas area over Florida and into the western Gulf of Mexico. Considering that a strong high pressure is building over the southeastern United States meanwhile, and this low does on satellite imagery appear to becoming more and more prominent by the hour, it does indeed seem sadly plausible. If you continue looking at the model, they show that the high begins to weaken and head east, meaning that whatever has at that point developed would start moving in a generally northerly direction to hit either Texas or Louisiana. We're still talking ten days out, but there doesn't seem like there's a lot going against this wave. It will have very similar conditions to Katrina, with the only difference being that this time it will have access to the hot and unwelled waters west in the Gulf west of the Mississippi. It is a frightening scenario, but one we should not ignore. We are probably 12 days away, but I would start thinking about it now. Personally, I will be helping with the food drive for Katrina victims in Houston this weekend. God help us all if something else were to hit.

[Mathias]

Granted, these models are too far ahead in time to lend major credence to at this time, but they do leave a person unsettled after such a monumental event, and with so much of an active tropical season still remaining. I hope that 92L and the area of convection in the Bahamas come to naught, because even a hit from a minor category 1 could cause more deaths as well as a deleterious ripple effect on the economy. Here's hoping for death to all the tropical systems for the remainder of the season.

[Jagno]

Please say an extra prayer that it stays away from SW LA and SE Texas. We have our hearts and hands full assisting the evacuees from SE LA, Miss & Alabama. If it were to threaten us then we'd all need to find refuge elsewhere and that would be a catastrophe in and of itself.

[Mathias]

Right now there appears to be no imminent threat in the Gulf that could effect Louisiana or SETX at the moment, so there is no need to panic; just keep a wary eye for any possible development in the near future. I think for now it is best to keep any suppositions of development on the back burner until we see anything of substance develop, such suppositions will just cause more nervousness, and possibly panic, which I admit I did myself earlier in this post, without thinking.

[KatDaddy]

From todays HPC Disc:

SOUTHEAST/GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY IN FL ON THE ECMWF IS LIKELY TOO
FAR SOUTH AS IT SWEEPS IT THROUGH THE KEYS ON THE BACKSIDE OF ITS
VERSION OF LEE. THIS IS NEITHER CLIMATOLOGICAL NOR PREFERRED
CONSIDERING THE WEAKNESS OF THE TROF EXPECTED TO SWING THRU NEW
ENG...SO BACKED UP THE FRONT TO CNTRL FL. ON DAYS 3-4 /SUN-MON
AM/...THE ECMWF PRESSURES HAD TO BE INCREASED OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT TAKES LEE WNWWD...WELL REMOVED FROM THE TPC TRACK.
ALSO AROUND THIS TIME FRAME...THE 06Z DGEX/00Z CAN/00Z ECMWF THROW
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE MIX W/REGARDS FOR THEIR VERSION OF A
POTENTIAL BAROCLINICALLY-INITIATED TROP CYC WHICH FORMS BETWEEN
70-75W AND MOVES NWD. HOWEVER...THE GFS/ECMWF/00Z NCEP ENSMEAN
SHOW/HINT AT UNIFYING UPR ENERGY FROM THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPR
TROF INTO A CLOSED CYC AT THE BASE OF THE TROF NR THE NRN GULF OF
MEX AND HAVE EITHER A WEAKNESS IN THE PRES FIELD OR A LOW WHICH
MOVES WWD. WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SYS OFF NEW ENG TO GRAB THE
ENERGY AND DIVERT IT MORE OUT INTO THE NWRN ATL...THERE IS ROOM
FOR A CLOSED CYC AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A LOW
IN THE GULF. WILL REINTRODUCE A LOW IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT
RETROGRADES VERY SLOWLY WWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AT
NOON A FINAL DETERMINATION W/BE MADE ON THIS SYS PER COORDINATION
W/TPC. OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST THOUGHT IT WAS PRUDENT TO
REINTRODUCE A PSBL TROP CYC EDGING NWD THRU THE BAHAMAS AS
TELECONNECTIONS W/THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES SEEN ACRS ERN CAN BEST
SUPPORT LOWER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS ACRS THE CNTRL BAHAMAS...THIS
WAS DONE IN COORDINATION W/TPC.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

MAPS:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

[KatDaddy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
218 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2005


THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE SHOWN A
BAROCLINICALLY INDUCED TROPICAL LOW MOVING WWD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF AND NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE
TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION. FOR THIS REASON, CLOUD COVER AND POPS
WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY OVER PREVIOUS VALUES.

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/fl/discussion.html

[deltadog03]

WOW!!!!!!!!!

[N2Storms]

THE GFS DEVELOPS A LOW ON THE FRONT NE OF THE GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND AND MOVES SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST AND THEN THROUGH
THE EXTREME SOUTH PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE NAM IS SLOWER WITH THIS
LOW AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER. THIS SITUATION BEARS WATCHING. BELIEVE
ATTM THIS LOW MAY NOT BECOME TROPICAL AND WILL BE JUST A LOW ALONG
THE FRONTAL TROUGH.

[corpusbreeze]

I know I will get flamed but JB has said for the last two days to watch the western GOM. That wave in the southwestern Carrib. is starting to catch my eyes now.

[KatDaddy]

Thanks Corpus for the JB angle. One thing that just came to mind. If something even looks like it will develop in the GOM, panic will ensue after seeing Katrina's death and destruction unfold. Store will sell out very quickly way before any real threat materialize. Something we should all keep in mind.

[Canelaw99]

THE GFS DEVELOPS A LOW ON THE FRONT NE OF THE GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND AND MOVES SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST AND THEN THROUGH
THE EXTREME SOUTH PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE NAM IS SLOWER WITH THIS
LOW AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER. THIS SITUATION BEARS WATCHING. BELIEVE
ATTM THIS LOW MAY NOT BECOME TROPICAL AND WILL BE JUST A LOW ALONG
THE FRONTAL TROUGH.

I don't like the sound of that, that's for sure. Our local NBC met had mentioned this on Monday, so we'll see what develops. My thinking is that with all of these people and models hinting at it, there's a good chance it will happen. I just hope that we're able to get all the debris piles up before anything moves this direction.

[scostorms]

If this ole' bucket does develop, any hints on its magnitude? Also, I am trying to imagine what it might look like if a second cookie' hit Louisiana. Could we be facing a total loss of cities if lets say, a cat. 3, came ashore on Plaquemines Parish again because of the state of the buildings after Katrina?

[SouthFloridawx]

If this ole' bucket does develop, any hints on its magnitude? Also, I am trying to imagine what it might look like if a second cookie' hit Louisiana. Could we be facing a total loss of cities if lets say, a cat. 3, came ashore on Plaquemines Parish again because of the state of the buildings after Katrina?

Lets start paying attention to it when the NHC starts to pay attention to it.