GFDL predicts invest21l to be 163 mph in 120h an pressure 91

[truballer#1]

Im not saying its going to happen but something to watch

[GalvestonDuck]

Freaking A!

[Scorpion]

Yes, and considering it was right on the money with Katrina.

[canegrl04]

Please don't tell me this thing is headed for the US

[truballer#1]

gfdl model was right on katrinas track and intensity too!

[Canelaw99]

[AnthonyC]

What a flippin' joke...hopefully that thing recurves and has no impact on the US. I don't think the United States could take the impact of another category 4/5 hurricane.

[Hyperstorm]

truballer,

Don't be misled by the forecast wind speed which is at a level of a 950mb. You need to convert those winds to the surface. In this case, the system is forecast to be a Category 4 hurricane during that time with winds of 140-145 mph at the surface.

This is an extreme output and should be viewed as such...

[cinlfla]

When will the GFDL be ran again?

[Scorpion]

917 mb and 140 mph? While its possible(Katrina) it seems a little skeptical for a strengthening system.

[x-y-no]

That's possible, I suppose, but pretty extreme.

And if this did verify, I think it would head north into that weakness.

[cajungal]

If another hurricane threatnes the gulf coast this year, I am going to be sick. I will move to Montana and deal with the blizzards instead.

[wxwatcher91]

917 mb and 140 mph? While its possible(Katrina) it seems a little skeptical for a strengthening system.

not 140mph... 142kts and at 950mb... considering the eyewall would have pressures in the 920s to 930s in a 917mb cane, winds would be 142 x 1.15 = 163.3mph at 950mph... but because 950mb wouldnt be possible considering a 917mb storm... winds would be like 170 according to the model...

oh and just to make things clear- I'm only doing the math and in no way does this say anything about my opinion of the model forecast.

[truballer#1]

gfdl isnt the only one hinting a strong hurricane

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

[Hyperstorm]

917 mb and 140 mph? While its possible(Katrina) it seems a little skeptical for a strengthening system.

not 140mph... 142kts and at 950mb... considering the eyewall would have pressures in the 920s to 930s in a 917mb cane, winds would be 142 x 1.15 = 163.3mph at 950mph... but because 950mb wouldnt be possible considering a 917mb storm... winds would be like 170 according to the model...

oh and just to make things clear- I'm only doing the math and in no way does this say anything about my opinion of the model forecast.

wxwatcher,

950 mb is a LEVEL of the atmosphere, it is not the pressure of the storm.
Everyone needs to always convert the GFDL forecast winds to the surface (from 950 mb) at approximately 85% of those Flight-Level winds.

[wxwatcher91]

917 mb and 140 mph? While its possible(Katrina) it seems a little skeptical for a strengthening system.

not 140mph... 142kts and at 950mb... considering the eyewall would have pressures in the 920s to 930s in a 917mb cane, winds would be 142 x 1.15 = 163.3mph at 950mph... but because 950mb wouldnt be possible considering a 917mb storm... winds would be like 170 according to the model...

oh and just to make things clear- I'm only doing the math and in no way does this say anything about my opinion of the model forecast.

wxwatcher,

950 mb is a LEVEL of the atmosphere, it is not the pressure of the storm.
Everyone needs to always convert the GFDL forecast winds to the surface (from 950 mb) at approximately 85% of those Flight-Level winds.

yeah I know but there wouldnt be a 950mb level in this case would there? because since pressures are lower than 950 at the surface and they only lower from there... there wouldnt be a 950 level...

sorry if I'm screwing this up... somebody want to help me out on this? lol

[Anonymous]

Last year...the GFDL took a measley Tropical Storm Ivan to Cat 5 in the Eastern Caribbean...we laughed.

[AussieMark]

this year the GFDL has taken Dennis, Emily and Katrina to category 4's

and was on the money

[cycloneye]

Let's not forget that the GFDL was the only model that forecasted the SW track of Katrina thru South Florida.

[P.K.]

gfdl isnt the only one hinting a strong hurricane

The Met Office model is picking up on 92L and taking it to a similar location http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//ukm/2005090112//slp24.png. On the model guidance this is down under the strong category so it isn't developing it quite as much as the GFDL.