UNOFFICIAL..TD 16 Forecast 1; NWward; land near 72HRS; 55kts

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quote Nencweather.com:
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable (see below link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com.

Verifications may be found here:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... index.html

Forecast 1:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... xteen.html

Basically this was meant to be a quick discussion and turned out to be a rather long write-up of different possibilities--basically the track forecast is a bit uncertain, but the general pattern through three days is quite confident. Also, the intensity is quite dependent on track, and also on wind shear, so given both negative factors, I do forecast a hurricane; however, this will be dependent on organization on the short-term which I've tended to underestimate this season.

Scott