September Review of 2005 Personal Seasonal Outlook

[DoctorHurricane2003]

This post is a review of my July 31 revision of my personal 2005 seasonal outlook for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Oceans. This is not an official forecast, and should not be treated as such, but instead, is meant to provide useful insight into the last three months of this hurricane season.

My July 31st revision can be located at this link: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=69512

I. INTRODUCTION

I noted in my last forecast that it may be necessary to change my outlook for the 2005 season in the beginning of September. I have decided to maintain my forecast for the 2005 season, however, I will note a few things. I have decided to change the way I average my forecast for verification. At the end of this year, I will provide three verifications. The first verification will be the original averaged verification, that include the years 2001-2004 for verification, which has the original 2/1 average ratio (where the June forecast counts for 67% of the yearly averaged forecast, and the August update counts for 33%). The second verification is the original June forecast ONLY, beginning with the year 2005 and continuing from there. The third verification is for the August update ONLY, beginning with the year 2005 and continuing from there. In the following two sections, I will explain how the actual result may vary from my August updated forecast.

II. ATLANTIC OCEAN

As I said, I do not believe the actual result of the 2005 season will vary that much from my August revisional forecast. There are some cases, however, where the result may differ from my August revision. Below I will go through each section of the numbers, include the forecast, and explain how I expect it to stay the same and/or differ.

TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS: 24

We have already had 16 tropical depressions by the peak of the season, one of which did not develop into a tropical storm. I do believe there is a high probability that we may see another tropical depression that does not develop into a storm. This number could differ if we see a more active second half of the season. If we have 8 more depressions develop (24-16= 8)...to be evenly distributed, we should see 4 more in September, 3 in October, and 1 in November....however, as is quite noticeable, the outcome could be quite different than just described.

TROPICAL STORMS: 22

This situation is very similar to that of the tropical depressions. As I said, at least one more depression may not develop into a storm, and the number could be higher than forecast if we see a more active second half. To be evenly distributed, we should see 8 more tropical storms, also distributed as 4 in September, 3 in October, and 1 in November.

HURRICANES: 11

Many of the tropical storms this year have not developed into hurricanes. So far we have had 5 hurricanes, and it does look like Nate will make 6. This means we have 6 (5) more hurricanes left to evenly distribute across the season. Although this seems high, I would like to note that the intensity of the past few storms have been higher than earlier in the season in terms of systems developing into hurricanes (if you include Nate as well). So to be evenly distributed across the remainder of the season, we should see (not including nate) 3 hurricanes in September and 2 in October. (NOTE: I as well as you can see how unlikely these results are, for only one tropical storm each in September and October not to develop into a hurricane, as well as only 3 in October...so it is quite likely that my seasonal outlook may be underestimated in some areas)

MAJOR HURRICANES: 07

I am glad to see that I leaned on the high side with this prediction. Unlike with the tropical storm to hurricane transition, only one hurricane this year has not become a major hurricane (Irene). This is clear evidence of the role of the record level of sea surface temperatures. I believe this number is on target, or even perhaps somewhat underestimated, but to evenly distribute the remaining 3 major hurricanes across the remainder of the season, we should see 2 in September and 1 in October

69% CHANCE OF SEEING A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE

This number was definitely on target. This number reflected a much above average chance at seeing a category 5 hurricane form in the Atlantic Basin, and that did occur (Katrina).

III. EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN

This will be a more brief version of the review I gave for the Atlantic. I do believe that my forecast is on target with the exception of major hurricanes and perhaps it is overestimating by one hurricane. It is quite possible that we may see 0 to 1 major hurricanes in the remainder of the season.

IV. CONCLUSION

Once again this is not an official forecast, and it will in no way affect my personal verifications at the end of the season. It is only meant as guidance to show the progress of the season compared to my August revisional forecast, and to review how the remainder of the forecasted storms will fit in with the remainder of the season, also showing where I may be incorrect in my estimates.


*END

Comments are welcomed.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Nice analysis especially the analysis regarding major canes and record SSTs!