TD16 Trapped? Betsy/Jeanne-like Scenario in the GFS?

[MWatkins]

The GFS model continues to assert that a strong ridge of high pressure will begin to build in the SE US in the TN/MO valley in about 4 days or so.

The most recent GFS guidance...although not complete yet...is a bit to the right of the previous guidance and starts to tug the system off the coast in the 3 to 4 day period on a course...perhaps...out to sea.

However....there is a major fly in the ointment. As this ridge builds in the model it traps TD16 on the eastern side and begins to bring the system SE under the back side of the ridge...and in fact by day 5 has this system moving DUE SOUTH and executing a Betsy-like loop (although further north and Betsy).

Of course...anything beyound day 5...especially in the GFS model...is for entertainment purposes only...but by day 6/7 TD 16 is trapped under a high amplitude...short period ridge in the model and heading back...slowly toward the north central FL coast.

So...although this is a shift eastward in one model...early on...the same picture remains...the chances of this system getting out to sea have not changed...there is going to be a ridge that will build in late in the NHC forecast period (days 4 and 5) and it is going to be strong enough to hold this system off the coast...somewhere east of the SEUS...for several days.

This could be a long weekend....

MW

[jaxfladude]

Great, just great!!!

[LaBreeze]

Local met here mentioned the high pressure building in and holding tough for some time. He mentioned the left hook it may take as it runs into that expected high pressure. A wait and see situation for sure.

[AussieMark]

after Katrina I bet a Betsy type track is really what the US needs right now

[Skywatch_NC]

The anchored HIGH sure isn't doing any good for the parched Carolinas...honestly wouldn't mind one quick-moving TS to come to the Carolinas...because I read on Martinsville_Weather (Kevin)'s site that next chance of rain may not come around until Sept. 15th...

Eric

[krysof]

it will move slowly off the coast, but that would take several days, no rain for much of the east coast, accept Florida and Georgia.

[rainydaze]

I was thinking the same thing when I see the GFS ala Jeanne. the thing I've learned is once these trpoical systems get trapped under that high they are going nowhere but west baby.......with maybe a dash of southwest thrown in there for good measure.

I think the key to TD 16 will be where and at what time she gets hit by the high pressure...then she'll probably just steam west til she hits land.


STORM 2K DISCLAIMER.....IT'S PROBABLY PAINFULLY OBVIOUS I AM NOT A PROFESSIONAL AND BARELY EVEN AN AMATEUR....IN LIGHT OF THIS PLEASE DO NOT LISTEN TO ANYTHING I HAVE TO SAY.......REFER TO NHC FOR A REAL FORECAST.

[ameriwx2003]

GFDL.. once again with the 0Z run brings 16 West across Florida into the Gulf. It will be interesting to see the 0Z run of the EURO.

Scroll to the bottom of the page at link below for T.D. 16

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05090705

[spinfan4eva]

The GFS model continues to assert that a strong ridge of high pressure will begin to build in the SE US in the TN/MO valley in about 4 days or so.

The most recent GFS guidance...although not complete yet...is a bit to the right of the previous guidance and starts to tug the system off the coast in the 3 to 4 day period on a course...perhaps...out to sea.

However....there is a major fly in the ointment. As this ridge builds in the model it traps TD16 on the eastern side and begins to bring the system SE under the back side of the ridge...and in fact by day 5 has this system moving DUE SOUTH and executing a Betsy-like loop (although further north and Betsy).

Of course...anything beyound day 5...especially in the GFS model...is for entertainment purposes only...but by day 6/7 TD 16 is trapped under a high amplitude...short period ridge in the model and heading back...slowly toward the north central FL coast.

So...although this is a shift eastward in one model...early on...the same picture remains...the chances of this system getting out to sea have not changed...there is going to be a ridge that will build in late in the NHC forecast period (days 4 and 5) and it is going to be strong enough to hold this system off the coast...somewhere east of the SEUS...for several days.

This could be a long weekend....

MW

I hope you are wrong with all due respect. If Jeanne was any indication, then, we could see a Major headed for central/North Florida

[FlSteel]

I pray that that scenario does not play out. North East Florida would be in really bad shape afterward.

[f5]

Worst case scenario would be for that high to push that storm to the sw(much like the Legendary Katrina did)

[ameriwx2003]

0Z EURO also sends 16 across Florida into the Gulf once again.

http://www.ecmwf.int/

[deltadog03]

WOW!!! the Euro is amazingly consistant...either wrong or right...and this 00z run is even stronger on the system...hmm...time will tale

[f5]

0Z EURO also sends 16 across Florida into the Gulf once again.

http://www.ecmwf.int/

Does NO all of sudden have a kick me sign on it back i know Flordia residents know what that means?

[flair]

The anchored HIGH sure isn't doing any good for the parched Carolinas...honestly wouldn't mind one quick-moving TS to come to the Carolinas...because I read on Martinsville_Weather (Kevin)'s site that next chance of rain may not come around until Sept. 15th...

Eric

I'm not far from you here in Hertford Co. I can't remember the last time we had rain. I haven't had to mow grass in weeks. The drive around here is pitiful, as the corn looks like it has been set on fire. High pressure has dominated the Mid-Atlantic going back to May.

[DAVE440]

VERY INTERESTING Scenario!

First forecasts were calling for NW movement across Central FL...but that may be changin.

According to the 5am NHC....Ophelia makes it close to landfall
but just skirts the FL coast then turns N NE and begins a loop!!

Also forecasting an increase to hurricane strength as it gets
farther from land.

If you notice the 3 day cone...(circle)...it was down thru Broward....now thats moved north so the southernmost part of the circle is just below lake okeechobee.....

HOWEVER...the 5 Day (Circle) has done just the opposite and actually extended further south!! Now the Southern part of the 5 day extends just south of Florida.

With the possibility of a 360 in the works....I don't think they really know where its going!!

[fci]

VERY INTERESTING Scenario!

First forecasts were calling for NW movement across Central FL...but that may be changin.

According to the 5am NHC....Ophelia makes it close to landfall
but just skirts the FL coast then turns N NE and begins a loop!!

Also forecasting an increase to hurricane strength as it gets
farther from land.

If you notice the 3 day cone...(circle)...it was down thru Broward....now thats moved north so the southernmost part of the circle is just below lake okeechobee.....

HOWEVER...the 5 Day (Circle) has done just the opposite and actually extended further south!! Now the Southern part of the 5 day extends just south of Florida.

With the possibility of a 360 in the works....I don't think they really know where its going!!

I just can't imagine this thing chugging South enough to come back here.

[Nimbus]

The core of Ophelia is a lot better organized this morning and it looks like she is drifting northwest.

Guess it would be better if Ophelia made landfall sooner rather than later in Florida. They will have to up the intensity forecast at 11 if the CDO keeps building like that.

[ga_ben]

5AM advisory has it moving NNW at 8. Is this thing expected to slow down again?

[Blown Away]

I'll play the odds here w/o scientific data! A hurricane landfall is extremely rare north of Melbourne through Georgia! I'll bet she ends up out to sea, in the Carolina's, or loops around and heads back towards SFL! I'm not buying the NE FL track! Im all in!