CV wave looks promising!

[canes04]

Can this be the long tracker we have been waiting for?
Any thought's from the experts.

[PuertoRicoLibre]

Hard to tell but I would not bet on it. Even though the latest models I have seen give this one a better chance at attempting to do something, they kind of lose it after a while. If I had to bet money on it, I would say it will likely encounter hostile conditions that will prevent its development. I would want to hear Derek or Mike W. on this one.

[Duffy]

hmm yes it does look good right now, Warm SST's and upper level winds appear favorable right now, the way this Season has gone so far, i wouldn't rule ANYTHING OUT!
but as he said, the one thing we've missed so far this year is a classic long tracking CV system! Unfortanetly or fortunatly, however way you look at it....the conditions just haven't been good enough for a long tracking system.....technically i suppose you could make the argument that Dennis and TD 10, which parts of it, eventually became Katrina....we haven't had a Classic CV system this year, like Frances or Ivan, last year
we still have some weeks to go yet, before CV Season starts to shut down, so there is still some hope that something will come across...we'll just have to see

[Hyperstorm]

Don't be so quick to point out development.

There is currently a rather deep mid-upper level trough dropping southward from the far NE Atlantic Ocean which is ushering much drier air from the north and strong WSW winds. This is currently squashing any potential for development.

The tropical low/wave will have to move much farther westward to further develop, if at all...

[gatorcane]

Don't be so quick to point out development.

There is currently a rather deep mid-upper level trough dropping southward from the far NE Atlantic Ocean which is ushering much drier air from the north and strong WSW winds. This is currently squashing any potential for development.

The tropical low/wave will have to move much farther westward to further develop, if at all...

It's starting to look more and more like fall with each day...the CV season doesn't have much time left

[SouthFloridawx]

Currently there is Sal to the north of the system however if the southern end survives this thing may have a chance take a look at the sal/shear/shear tendency. The shear in the area in front of this wave looks to relax and may give this wave a chance. Who know's anything is possible this season.








What do you think?

[SouthFloridawx]

anyone on this one?

[LarryWx]

Don't be so quick to point out development.

There is currently a rather deep mid-upper level trough dropping southward from the far NE Atlantic Ocean which is ushering much drier air from the north and strong WSW winds. This is currently squashing any potential for development.

The tropical low/wave will have to move much farther westward to further develop, if at all...

It's starting to look more and more like fall with each day...the CV season doesn't have much time left

Climowise, the season for the FORMATION of CV storms* later hitting the U.S. hits a peak on 9/10 and then rapidly winds down. Here are the dates of formation of CV storms since 1900 that later hit the U.S.:

7/5, 7/15, 7/31, 8/3, 8/5, 8/7, 8/7, 8/16, 8/17, 8/18, 8/19, 8/20, 8/20, 8/21, 8/23, 8/25, 8/25, 8/27, 8/28, 8/28, 8/29, 8/29, 9/2, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6, 9/6, 9/7, 9/8, 9/10, 9/10, 9/10, 9/10, 9/11, 9/15, 9/16, 9/21, 9/21

So, after the next 3-4 days, climo says the chances drop significantly.

**My def. of CV storm: tropical storm/hurricane that first became at least a TD E of 50W and S of 20N and EXCLUDING the unnamed storm of 1988

[PuertoRicoLibre]

1. Granted that climo speaking the chances for a US hit decrease after the peak, yet they do not decrease as fast for the Caribbean.

2. Climo speaking, this is not a regular season by any means, so climo may not be a good parameter, when compared to what is actually going on in the atmosphere, which anyway is a better predictive factor. Remember good old 1995?

3. To the extent there is no shear, the water is warm and SAL is under control, at Sept. 7, any CV wave has a good chance at development.

4. This one looks like it could have a chance if the lessening of the atypical conditions in that area this year insofar as shear and SAL hold. Whether that lessening of hostile conditions will persit, however, I do not know.

[/quote]

[no advance]

Wheres Hyper His tropical wave looks dried out. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W/40W FROM 9N TO 22N IS MOVING W ABOUT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED WITHIN 7 TO 8 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS. Probally another seedling for next wk.

[Hyperstorm]

Wheres Hyper His tropical wave looks dried out. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W/40W FROM 9N TO 22N IS MOVING W ABOUT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED WITHIN 7 TO 8 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS. Probally another seedling for next wk.

no advance...

Yes, in the thread I made regarding it, I posted about its weakening. The wave succumbed to the extremely hostile conditions in the Eastern Atlantic that have been prevalent so far this year. It will have to move further west to develop, if at all.

This latest wave to move off the coast has also met its demise with a strong UL trough northeast of it that is proving cooler, drier air from the north and WSW wind shear. The wave is being stretched out at this point and I don't think it has a chance of developing anytime in the immediate future.

Very strange what's happening in this part of the world, even though there are no obvious large-scale factors that are inhibiting activity overall in the Atlantic...

[cycloneye]

A WELL-DEFINED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED OVER SENEGAL AND
GUINEA-BISSAU AND IS THE PROBABLE HARBINGER OF THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE TO MOVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST.

$$
BERG


The above from 8 PM Discussion.

Let's see if that well defined low survives the hurdles in the atlantic.By the way Steve Lyons briefly mentioned tonight that it has to be watched in the next few days.

[wxcrazytwo]

Can this be the long tracker we have been waiting for?
Any thought's from the experts.

ALREADY POSTED. WHY POST ANOTHER ONE??

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=73865

[soonertwister]

Promising = fish storm.

[Duffy]

sooner, why do you say that? its already pretty far South that would tend to make me guess it would avoid any troughing

[nequad]

I think the CV season is dead.

[Brent]

Can this be the long tracker we have been waiting for?
Any thought's from the experts.

ALREADY POSTED. WHY POST ANOTHER ONE??

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=73865

This thread was here before you posted yours.

[Foladar]

Can this be the long tracker we have been waiting for?
Any thought's from the experts.

ALREADY POSTED. WHY POST ANOTHER ONE??

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=73865

Your right, why DID you post another one?

[wxcrazytwo]

I never saw this one. My bad..

[Scorpion]

But don't they all... until they get to that dreaded shear zone.