Accuweather Track Still Shows Ophelia Cutting Accross FL

[acidus]

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... e&partner=

Is Joe going to be right again?

[KatDaddy]

I do not know. what does Joe say?

[skufful]

it is interesting that their track line is not near the middle of their cone.

[f5]

i won't believe it until its offical beside accuweather is a private company.Besides why does Joe Bastardi want NO to get a direct hit from a CAT 5?

[LarryWx]

i won't believe it until its offical beside accuweather is a private company.Besides why does Joe Bastardi want NO to get a direct hit from a CAT 5?

That track projection would likely give Accuweather more attention/make them more money. I also don't trust their motives and this illustrates a reason to not want that Sen. Santorum bill to pass. The NWS being non-profit is a big plus imho since I believe it gives them more incentive to be unbiased.

[melhow]

i won't believe it until its offical beside accuweather is a private company.Besides why does Joe Bastardi want NO to get a direct hit from a CAT 5?

I'm not a Joe nut or anything, but it doesn't say anything in that forecst about New Orleans or category. All it says is, well, here:

One option is for Ophelia to move across Florida and wind up in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Another option is for Ophelia to drift north or northwest along the Florida coast, before turning northeast away from the Southeast coast. Even if this latter option were to occur, there is still concern that it could loop back toward the coast later next week. The bottom line is that the future movement of Ophelia is very uncertain and all interests along the southeast U.S. coast - and even the Gulf coast - should monitor the progress of Ophelia

[f5]

i won't believe it until its offical beside accuweather is a private company.Besides why does Joe Bastardi want NO to get a direct hit from a CAT 5?

That track projection would likely give Accuweather more attention/make them more money. I also don't trust their motives and this illustrates a reason to not want that Sen. Santorum bill to pass. The NWS being non-profit is a big plus imho since I believe it gives them more incentive to be unbiased.

what is appalling by companies like Accuweather is that they are always trying to forecast armageddon

[SouthFloridawx]

i won't believe it until its offical beside accuweather is a private company.Besides why does Joe Bastardi want NO to get a direct hit from a CAT 5?

He does not want Ophelia to hit NOLO as a Cat 5 !

[melhow]

i won't believe it until its offical beside accuweather is a private company.Besides why does Joe Bastardi want NO to get a direct hit from a CAT 5?

That track projection would likely give Accuweather more attention/make them more money. I also don't trust their motives and this illustrates a reason to not want that Sen. Santorum bill to pass. The NWS being non-profit is a big plus imho since I believe it gives them more incentive to be unbiased.

what is appalling by companies like Accuweather is that they are always trying to forecast armageddon

But there has been no such "armageddon" forecast made on Accuweather for Ophelia. What are you talking about? Accuweather has laid out the options - viable, model-supported, NHC mentioned options, for this storm. Period. That's all. Are you serious with the thinking that Joe Bastardi is sitting in the Accuweather offices stroking his hairless cat and cackling, plotting Ophelia with his other meterologists to pounce on New Orleans? C'mon.

[southerngale]

I agree melhow. The only "hyping" I see is from a couple of posters about Accuweather/JB.

[Dean4Storms]

It is a VERY plausible forecast as several models indicate this scenario and some of those models have show more consistancy than any others with this storm. Secondly why buck trends? The recent trend we have seen with these storms south of 30n this season has been what? West my friends into the Gulf. Thirdly, if Ophelia does miss getting drawn northward by the trough she has little elsewhere to go other than westward around the diving ridge.

[Frank2]

I get the feeling that the east coast trough will be a bit stronger than forecast (per the current surface map, which also indicates that the cold front currently dropping southeast from the northern plains to be a bit stronger than forecast), so, hopefully Ophelia will just drift before being moved northeastward with the trough.

Since a substaintial trough does already exist to the east of Ophelia, due to slow-moving Hurricane Nate, it would make sense that this would make an eastward "path of least resistence" more likely for Ophelia, when the trough created by Nate is enhanced by the east coast trough.

Frank

[rockyman]

i won't believe it until its offical beside accuweather is a private company.Besides why does Joe Bastardi want NO to get a direct hit from a CAT 5?

That track projection would likely give Accuweather more attention/make them more money. I also don't trust their motives and this illustrates a reason to not want that Sen. Santorum bill to pass. The NWS being non-profit is a big plus imho since I believe it gives them more incentive to be unbiased.

what is appalling by companies like Accuweather is that they are always trying to forecast armageddon

I'm assuming your username does not refer to an F5 tornado...or you could be accused of naming yourself after the most Armageddon-like force in all of nature

[Jim Hughes]

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/storms.asp?ocean=atlantic&storm=Ophelia&imagetype=move&partner=

Is Joe going to be right again?

I siincerely hope he is wrong. We just had the strongest x-ray flare in almost two years a couple of hours ago. X18...

This increased activity may keep up. We do not want any systems close to land during the next week or so! I am getting very worried.



Jim

[Frank2]

I'm here at work, but, the more I think about this situation, the more I believe that the east coast trough will be play a primary role in Ophelia taking an eventual track to the northeast.

It's rare for systems nearing 30N to move westward or southwestward, and, it irritates me that people constantly refer to Betsy - that was 40 years ago! Only two systems, the "Yankee Hurricane" of 1935, and Betsy of 1965, had similar tracks - again, it is a very rare occurence.

Frank

[drudd1]

Statistics are not going to steer this storm, the weather will. If a pattern sets up that will force this storm south, west, into a loop, whatever, then it will do so, and past history, odds. etc. will play no part.

[f5]

i won't believe it until its offical beside accuweather is a private company.Besides why does Joe Bastardi want NO to get a direct hit from a CAT 5?

That track projection would likely give Accuweather more attention/make them more money. I also don't trust their motives and this illustrates a reason to not want that Sen. Santorum bill to pass. The NWS being non-profit is a big plus imho since I believe it gives them more incentive to be unbiased.

what is appalling by companies like Accuweather is that they are always trying to forecast armageddon

I'm assuming your username does not refer to an F5 tornado...or you could be accused of naming yourself after the most Armageddon-like force in all of nature

I just don't wish for an F-5 tornado to hit a major city but anyways i apologize for my comments which took an unexpected turn a turn i didn't wish for.

[rockyman]

i won't believe it until its offical beside accuweather is a private company.Besides why does Joe Bastardi want NO to get a direct hit from a CAT 5?

That track projection would likely give Accuweather more attention/make them more money. I also don't trust their motives and this illustrates a reason to not want that Sen. Santorum bill to pass. The NWS being non-profit is a big plus imho since I believe it gives them more incentive to be unbiased.

what is appalling by companies like Accuweather is that they are always trying to forecast armageddon

I'm assuming your username does not refer to an F5 tornado...or you could be accused of naming yourself after the most Armageddon-like force in all of nature

I just don't wish for an F-5 tornado to hit a major city but anyways i apologize for my comments which took an unexpected turn a turn i didn't wish for.

No need to apologize...we're all friends here...I'm just no so sure you are right that Accuwx is always forecasting doomsday...I remember during Katrina that Accuwx had every opportunity to forecast a NOLA hit early on and Accuwx did NOT do so...they even did not forecase a NOLA hit after many other private forecasters had jumped on the bandwagon. Sure, JB can be a little dramatic, but a little drama at a time like this is just what the doctor ordered.

[wxcrazytwo]

I'm here at work, but, the more I think about this situation, the more I believe that the east coast trough will be play a primary role in Ophelia taking an eventual track to the northeast.

It's rare for systems nearing 30N to move westward or southwestward, and, it irritates me that people constantly refer to Betsy - that was 40 years ago! Only two systems, the "Yankee Hurricane" of 1935, and Betsy of 1965, had similar tracks - again, it is a very rare occurence.

Frank

Oh yeah, and bust through the ridge right.

[LarryWx]

Statistics are not going to steer this storm, the weather will. If a pattern sets up that will force this storm south, west, into a loop, whatever, then it will do so, and past history, odds. etc. will play no part.

Yes, of course, the current weather setup will ultimately determine the path. However, the odds of a particular weather setup occurring can be analyzed by looking at weather history for this time of year. I see nothing wrong with using climo as a very important tool to assess odds (As Don S. often does quite well imho) in addition to looking at current model runs.
Keep in mind that even a model can be way off.