Massive ridge surging over Ophelia.......

[dixiebreeze]

A huge dry air ridge is plummeting SE over Ophelia and Nate. Should have a big influence on steering, I would think.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

[Derek Ortt]

its not heading into the EC anytime soon. Too much of a weakness is present

[Frank2]

Re: Derek's post

Yes, this is my current feeling, too, as mentioned in my previous posts...

[deltadog03]

well, looking at the loop...that dry is starting to push to the coast...that will be interesting to see what that could or might due...

[deltadog03]

well, look with KAT's path....a shortwave was suppose to pick kat up and make a second landfall over FL panhandle...well, never happend...this shortwave is suppose to tug this north...well, the shortwave is not digging...so, i have my doubts...

[Frank2]

But, Katrina was at 24 or 25 at that time, versus Ophelia at 28 or so, and, while that doesn't sound like much, it really is, since the westerlies are just north of Ophelia.

Frank

[dwg71]

well, look with KAT's path....a shortwave was suppose to pick kat up and make a second landfall over FL panhandle...well, never happend...this shortwave is suppose to tug this north...well, the shortwave is not digging...so, i have my doubts...

I dont believe i Kat was forecast to be "picked up" by any shortwave. She was to move North into a weakness, which she did, it was just further west than predicted. It had nothing to do with missing a trough.

[NorthGaWeather]

well, look with KAT's path....a shortwave was suppose to pick kat up and make a second landfall over FL panhandle...well, never happend...this shortwave is suppose to tug this north...well, the shortwave is not digging...so, i have my doubts...

I dont believe i Kat was forecast to be "picked up" by any shortwave. She was to move North into a weakness, which she did, it was just further west than predicted. It had nothing to do with missing a trough.

Where's the head hitting the wall emoticon?

Anyways, good point delta.

[BensonTCwatcher]

its not heading into the EC anytime soon. Too much of a weakness is present

By "soon" I take you mean past 36 hrs. I posted earilier in the other thread that I saw her following the weakness. Right now that would mean a GA to OBX track, but I don't how the ridging will be in 36+ hours. Since we still don't have much movement, my confidence in that will strt to decrease as long as it sits still. I think it will start N as it intensifies.

Recurve is still a distict possibility. I just never thought it would track west based on the climo history.

[Derek Ortt]

any significant motion almost certainly will be to the ENE this time. we may see a quasi landfall during the next 36, but this is going to be around for many days, probably about 200-300 miles offshore

[Rainband]

any significant motion almost certainly will be to the ENE this time. we may see a quasi landfall during the next 36, but this is going to be around for many days, probably about 200-300 miles offshore

Jeanne #2

[jpigott]

Derek - i know this is a few days off, but do you see anything synoptically down the road that would bring Ophelia back west ala' Jeanne, or will it meander off the coast for 4-5 days then be carried off by the next trough out to the NE

[krysof]

All I know is once this trough passes, the ridge will quickly rebuild and will barely move eastward. Ophelia is here to stay as she waves goodbye to Nate and Maria.

[jasons2k]

well, look with KAT's path....a shortwave was suppose to pick kat up and make a second landfall over FL panhandle...well, never happend...this shortwave is suppose to tug this north...well, the shortwave is not digging...so, i have my doubts...

I dont believe i Kat was forecast to be "picked up" by any shortwave. She was to move North into a weakness, which she did, it was just further west than predicted. It had nothing to do with missing a trough.

She was early on, it was mentioned in a NHC discussion but she missed it, so she took the weakness instead.

[linkerweather]

Katrina was ALWAYS supposed to find the weakness. Because she took a SW jog across Florida, that bascially put the storm farther west prior to finding the weakness, so the northward movement occurred farther west. Had Katrina jogged NW across florida then the northward move would have been farther east. Overall, especially after re-emerging in the GOM, Katrina was extremely well forecast from a track standpoint.

[wxman57]

any significant motion almost certainly will be to the ENE this time. we may see a quasi landfall during the next 36, but this is going to be around for many days, probably about 200-300 miles offshore

Derek, I'm in the "JB camp". I've seen many storms blocked by highs to the north stalling, drifting west to southwest, then heading off to the west. The GFDL really pegged Katrina, and it may have the best handle on Ophelia. The 12Z GFDL was "interesting", though, with the no movement for 48 hours then a sharp jog NNW for 60-80 miles then back WNW across northern Florida. I don't understand that NNW motion at 48-72 hours. Let's see if the 18Z GFDL is back westerly like the 12Z ECMWF.

I think the GFS and NOGAPS are not identifying the ridge to the north properly and are incorrectly moving Ophelia off to the northeast. The longer Ophelia remains stationary, the greater the chance that the GFDL is correct. And that NHC forecast is nothing short of a joke. They need to take a stand and actually make a forecast, not try to cut their losses by forecasting a track right between two possibilities. Pick one or the other. Out to sea or into the Gulf.

Oh, here's the 12Z ECMWF for 96 and 120 hrs:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... emp_96.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_120.gif

[CYCLONE MIKE]

wxman57, I am sick at the fact that there is even a remote chance of this getting in the gulf living here in SE LA. I do agree with you though about her entering the gulf. We always see the models down-playing the ridge and over strengthening the troughs. The two scenarios I see happening as of now are the ridge blocks her and sends her southwest acorss Florida then west through the gulf or she moves ENE like Derek says then does a loop and comes back around and crosses central/southern Folrida on a west to wsw heading. Just my ideas. They will more than likely change come tomorrow. That high does look forecast to be awfully strong though. I guess time will tell.

[wxman57]

18Z GFDL just came in. It continued the trend from 12Z - stationary for 60 hours, then a north jog to 30N then WNW into northern Florida by Jacksonville and inland across southern GA/AL. I still don't buy the NE motion by the GFS and NOGAPS, but I could buy a westward movement after 60 hours from wherever the center is at the time.

[ameriwx2003]

18Z GFDL is in.. The EURO track seems to make sense to me but who knows;):)

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05090723

[ameriwx2003]

On another note.. any word when they may have a Gulfstream Flight ?? That data may help some of the model differences:):)