Ophelia Forecast #2: Loop de do...

[Josephine96]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA
NJN WEATHER CENTER
810 PM WED SEPT 7TH 2005

Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to get better organized as she meanders just to the east of Central and North Florida. Max winds were 50 mph at 5 pm.

Ophelia is currently not moving very much. She is expected to start drifting to the North, possibly the NW with time. and eventually make a potential right turn to the east.

If she makes the right turn to the east, then the scenario gets interesting. Models are hinting at a "Jeanne" scenario. This being where Ophelia is trapped and begins to make a cyclonic loop to the SW. The NHC track even still hints at this possibility after day 5.

My forecast for Ophelia hasn't changed all that much as I still think a North Central Florida landfall is in the cards. Thus when the storm begins to move more south and west {if she does the loop}. She will begin to head back into the direction of the Florida Peninsula.

Here's a look at my experimental 5 day outlook.
Tonight: Organizing and meandering. Max winds: 55 mph
Thursday: Maybe slight strengthening over the waters. Max winds: 60 mph
Friday: Still not much movement, maybe even stalled. Max winds: 65 mph
Saturday: Nearing hurricane status. Showing signs of maybe beginning to loop around. max winds: 75 mph
Sunday: Perhaps the longest TS warnings ever for a non landfalling yet system, as she slowly begins to approach the Florida coast. max winds: 80 mph

[gatorcane]

she's drifting ESE at the moment

[WeatherEmperor]

she's drifting ESE at the moment

where have ya been lately?

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

was banned for about a week or so and then gone all Labor Day weekend...

[WeatherEmperor]

you were banned? you lie. you wouldnt get banned.

<RICKY>

[SouthFloridawx]

hey boca chris how you doing i haven't seen you for a while.... what's up man?

[boca]

Hey Boca_Chris you weren't banned you lieing sack of -----.

[gatorcane]

hey nice to see all S. Floridians....yes I was banned for a political comment I made. Anyway, Ophelia is going to be interesting to watch through this weekend.

I call for a S. Florida hit as usual...no I'm only joking

[SouthFloridawx]

hey nice to see all S. Floridians....yes I was banned for a political comment I made. Anyway, Odelphia is going to be interesting to watch through this weekend.

I call for a S. Florida hit as usual...no I'm only joking

ha

[jlauderdal]

hey nice to see all S. Floridians....yes I was banned for a political comment I made. Anyway, Ophelia is going to be interesting to watch through this weekend.

I call for a S. Florida hit as usual...no I'm only joking

you can join floydbuster in the detention hall for your political cooments, lol.,.i had two posts deleted today so i am in your hood.

[gatorcane]

you can join floydbuster in the detention hall for your political cooments, lol.,.i had two posts deleted today so i am in your hood.

Nice to see all my S. Florida posters here when I get back

[Josephine96]

This thread was supposed to be for comments of my forecast.. Ya'll could have at least made an observation on that

[gatorcane]

This thread was supposed to be for comments of my forecast.. Ya'll could have at least made an observation on that

lol. yes, I agree. Let's not deviate from the subject. My fault, I definitely don't want to get banned again

[gatorcane]

If she makes the right turn to the east, then the scenario gets interesting. Models are hinting at a "Jeanne" scenario. This being where Ophelia is trapped and begins to make a cyclonic loop to the SW. The NHC track even still hints at this possibility after day 5.

What models are you alluding to? Many are starting to pull her NE out to sea. I see her meandering for several days and becoming a minimal hurricane but by that time a trough will have picked her up and sent her NE into the open Atlantic.

[Josephine96]

Boca.. I'm sorry too.. I wasn't trying to be a smart well ya know what lol..

The models I refer too are the 1's I saw early this morning.. I guess I haven't checked the newest 1's yet..

I don't see her going out to sea.. The high pressure above.. could have her trapped and keep her moving west or northwest

[NFLnut]

was banned for about a week or so and then gone all Labor Day weekend...

I kept thinking I would be banned with every post over the weekend because I just couldn't take some of the political nonsense that was going on over in the Hurricane recovery forum. I was waiting for .. DING .. "You've Got Mail!" from the Mods. Eventually I just had to shut down the ol' Storm2K forums 'cause I thought a blood vessel was going to burst in my forehead!