Is Stationary Upwelling Weakening Ophelia?

[tropicstorm]

The NHC 5 am discussion indicated a drop in mb pressure but Ophelia doesn't look too healthy this morning - matter of fact, the IR sat loop looks like she's pretty ragged right now with warming cloud tops. Just wondering if her stationary position is creating an upwelling effect that has her weakening for the moment?

[artist]

look at radar - you can see she is holding her own.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... kmlb.shtml

[HURAKAN]

Ophelia is over the Gulf Stream, which is basically a subocean river of very hot water. Which makes me think, is upwelling possible over the Gulf Stream?

[SouthFloridawx]

is this falling apart ?

[SouthFloridawx]

sorry here it is

[jpigott]

The NHC 5 am discussion indicated a drop in mb pressure but Ophelia doesn't look too healthy this morning - matter of fact, the IR sat loop looks like she's pretty ragged right now with warming cloud tops. Just wondering if her stationary position is creating an upwelling effect that has her weakening for the moment?

i don't think it's upwelling b/c Ophelia is over the gulf stream where ocean currents are very strong and the cooler waters beneath aren't able to be pulled to the surface

[Hyperstorm]

Upwelling in the Gulf Stream is just not possible with a weak storm.

The convection decrease this morning is related to VERY dry air in the mid-levels that is just north and south of the storm. Look at your favorite water vapor loop and notice all this dry air entraining into the system (especially to the south and east).

As long as she remains over the warm SSTs, she will remain alive. There is just no way to get rid of a well-defined low pressure center which is located over warm waters, in the peak of hurricane season...

[wxmann_91]

sorry here it is

WOW that is certainly NOT falling apart.

[SouthFloridawx]

latest sat pic.

just getting convection now....

[Hyperstorm]

Gulf Stream waters are constantly in motion for a weak storm to upwell it much. Even during the winter, those waters remain fairly warm. It would take a hurricane sitting around for days to really upwell those waters.

If upwelled SSTs were the cause, we wouldn't be seeing convection building intensely near the center. On the contrary, what we see is an on/off pulse of intense convection, which is very indicative of subsidence near the storm.

[x-y-no]

Beginning late yesterday afternood, we had mid-level dry air undercutting the outflow on the NW side, killing the convection.

Seems like Ophelia has weathered that assault, though. I expect slow strengthening today.