New 11PM NHC track

[nequad]

Okay...we now have somewhat of a model consensus. The 18Z GFS/GFDL and 12Z UK all track Ophelia near the Outer Banks...with the UK a little slower than the other two. Despite the timing issues...the tracks are quite similar.

Question is: will the NHC adjust the track all the way to near Hatteras at 11PM?

I doubt they move it that far...but we shall see.

Oh yeah...I forgot... the 12Z and 18Z NOGAPS also takes the big O over the Banks.

[Scorpion]

Looks like the thinking is significantly different today. Before it was GA/SC coast but now its Outer Banks or even fish.

[Rainband]

with the little movement..anything is possible. She isn't moving much ..so it makes it harder to tell if and when and where she will make landfall.

[orion]

I think they will bump it north, especially since it is east of their current track. i agree with you though, don't think they'll take it all the way to OBX yet. Guess we have to wait and see when (and if) she makes that westward movement.

[pgoss11]

what time frame do they have landfall

[gatorcane]

fish or outerbanks

[nequad]

^ true rainband...but a model consensus inside 96 hours is pretty good...and normally reliable...but another 24 hours is really needed before assuming anything.

[shaggy]

starting to relax a bit but what a bust for the NHC on this one.Would love to look back a few days and see where there 5 day plot was and for them to be so sure of a west turn that seems to never happen!

[Brent]

what time frame do they have landfall

Tuesday Afternoon at Cape Fear as of now... the farther north it goes, the later it'll be(assuming it doesn't miss all together). I'm wondering if it might pull an Alex and skirt Hatteras and then out to sea.

[EDR1222]

what time frame do they have landfall

Tuesday Afternoon at Cape Fear as of now... the farther north it goes, the later it'll be(assuming it doesn't miss all together). I'm wondering if it might pull an Alex and skirt Hatteras and then out to sea.

I was thinking the same thing. Some of the models are indicating a brush along the outerbanks or even out to sea. That would definately be some good news if the models trend even further east.

[orion]

I was thinking the same thing. Some of the models are indicating a brush along the outerbanks or even out to sea. That would definately be some good news if the models trend even further east.

Looks like they are doing just that, at least for the moment... check out cycloneye's post with the model graphics at
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=73697&start=860&sid=45eaf03981bf6c524633a2bf58b15eb8

[jrod]

with the little movement..anything is possible. She isn't moving much ..so it makes it harder to tell if and when and where she will make landfall.

Yep, easy to agree with a moderator

The computer models have done poorly for the most part with this storm IMHO, so I dont think the NHC with jump on the latest model consensus, at least until the storm starts to follow their tracks if at all. The 11pm advisory forecasted track will probaly be shifted a little north with a less intense storm forecasted.

Not much has changed with the track, the intensity should be lowered because of the dry air invasion, but this is still a threat to the Carolina's.


*Not an official forecast or anything like that, just the opnion of this poster*

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, looks like a very good chance of being a fish storm. Every model is calling for "fish" with the NOGAPS just skimming the coast. This is great news!!! The 5 day forecast track hasn't yet shifted with the models completely as the track still brings the storm just a bit inland, but I have a feeling that will be shifted further to the right by 5:00 am and it too will call for a "fish"...


Of course everyone needs to pay attention just in case it does something unexpected. Ya hate to be caught off guard, but this is looking better and better every hour.

We need to keep our hurricane resources down in the South, so I"m sure there are a ton of people praying for "fish" me included. This is the best news all day, that and the fact that it's not strengthening and not really expecting to

[krysof]

don't be so sure yet

[Andrew92]

Yep, looks like a very good chance of being a fish storm. Every model is calling for "fish" with the NOGAPS just skimming the coast. This is great news!!! The 5 day forecast track hasn't yet shifted with the models completely as the track still brings the storm just a bit inland, but I have a feeling that will be shifted further to the right by 5:00 am and it too will call for a "fish"...


Of course everyone needs to pay attention just in case it does something unexpected. Ya hate to be caught off guard, but this is looking better and better every hour.

We need to keep our hurricane resources down in the South, so I"m sure there are a ton of people praying for "fish" me included. This is the best news all day, that and the fact that it's not strengthening and not really expecting to

Are you kidding me? The official forecast still calls for a landfall in NC, as of 11 PM. In addition, the discussion indicated that only TWO models had Ophelia passing east of Cape Hatteras, the GFS and the GFDL.

I fail to see any good news for now about this storm, other than that it's not intensifying for now. We'll see over tiomorrow if indeed they change to a "fish" track, but posts like this may increase complacency to those in NC. Granted, you say that residents should keep watch, but for the most part, it is not wise to say that the forecasts are likely to trend towards a fish when the official forecast doesn't indicate that (yet).

And I don't even take a C1 hurricane lightly.

-Andrew92

[nequad]

Keep in mind folks the term "fish" is really not prudent yet. Although the GFS/UK/GFDL all trak the storm just east of the Banks, they all move it close enough that the eye wall would likely graze Hatteras Island. Let's see if the eastward trend continues further east before calling it a fish.

[Andrew92]

Keep in mind folks the term "fish" is really not prudent yet. Although the GFS/UK/GFDL all trak the storm just east of the Banks, they all move it close enough that the eye wall would likely graze Hatteras Island. Let's see if the eastward trend continues further east before calling it a fish.

Totally agree.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, looks like a very good chance of being a fish storm. Every model is calling for "fish" with the NOGAPS just skimming the coast. This is great news!!! The 5 day forecast track hasn't yet shifted with the models completely as the track still brings the storm just a bit inland, but I have a feeling that will be shifted further to the right by 5:00 am and it too will call for a "fish"...


Of course everyone needs to pay attention just in case it does something unexpected. Ya hate to be caught off guard, but this is looking better and better every hour.

We need to keep our hurricane resources down in the South, so I"m sure there are a ton of people praying for "fish" me included. This is the best news all day, that and the fact that it's not strengthening and not really expecting to

Are you kidding me? The official forecast still calls for a landfall in NC, as of 11 PM. In addition, the discussion indicated that only TWO models had Ophelia passing east of Cape Hatteras, the GFS and the GFDL.

I fail to see any good news for now about this storm, other than that it's not intensifying for now. We'll see over tiomorrow if indeed they change to a "fish" track, but posts like this may increase complacency to those in NC. Granted, you say that residents should keep watch, but for the most part, it is not wise to say that the forecasts are likely to trend towards a fish when the official forecast doesn't indicate that (yet).

And I don't even take a C1 hurricane lightly.

-Andrew92

I don't think you read what I said. I said the models are taking this offshore and the forecast track HAS N0T YET AGREED, it doesn't mean that they won't by morning though. Usually the models shift, then the track does. It doesn't always happen at the same time.

Check out the below link. Which of these models other than the NOGAPS it onshore?? I can't find one.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[hurricanefreak1988]

Wow, it looks like we're going to miss out yet again. Some rain and some winds are probably all we're going to get from Ophelia. How's that for a turn of events?

[NC George]

They showed 4 model runs on our local news at 11p, and they all had Ophelia going out to sea. The models that took it farthest west actually scooted it out to sea fastest, and the northerly models indicated a near miss of Cape Hat.