Wave Approaching Southeastern Bahamas (N of P.R./Hispaniola)

[MiamiensisWx]

A new tropical wave appears to have formed north of Hispaniola. There is some strong convection associated with it. This is not the wave in the southeastern Bahamas people were earlier referring to. This is a new system and there is no other thread on it. Here it is on infra-red imagery (below). Notice it?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

There is a small area of deep red convection in the center of it as well within the main (largest) area of convection.

Here it is on visible imagery.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg

This wave so far has not been mentioned in the National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Outlook.

Any thoughts on it?

[Hurricanehink]

Not bad. Ophelia will likely disallow development, but when she gets out of the way, you never know.

[cycloneye]

A LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTMS EXTENDS UP TO 250 NM N
OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE BAHAMAS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

The only mention at the 2 PM discussion is the above.

[MiamiensisWx]

Not bad. Ophelia will likely disallow development, but when she gets out of the way, you never know.

True, Ophelia might temporarily halt significant development. However, although there is 20KT shear ahead of the system, the area of 20KT shear is mainly a pocket. Around that pocket, shear is less, in the 5KT to 10KT range. Also, outflow of the wave might be enhanced by other factors. Even if it does not develop, it is something to watch as it may get closer to the U.S., including Florida.

cycloneye, do you think it will be listed as an INVEST? If so, when do you think it will be?

[MiamiensisWx]

*BUMP*

I'll bump this thread up for anyone who is interested and for cycloneye.

cycloneye, do think this system will be labled an INVEST? If so, when? Any thoughts?

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the latest infra-red floater. No signs of a circulation seem to be appearing yet, but there is plenty of convection. If it persists (at least) I think it might just deserve to be an INVEST.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

Ophelia's circulation is causing some shear over it at the moment, causing convection to pop up and spread out. As Ophelia moves out of the area, however, it may easily very well be something to watch.

[cycloneye]

To get an invest this area has to have a pesistent area of convection,a surface low,a mid-level circulation and models support all of those that this area lacks at this time.Let's see in the comming 24-48 hours if the above things come thru with that area and if so then invest 95L can be up.

[wzrgirl1]

does look persistent...but you can tell that shear is taking a toll on the convection...will be interesting to see what happens when ophelia is out of the picture

[MiamiensisWx]

does look persistent...but you can tell that shear is taking a toll on the convection...will be interesting to see what happens when ophelia is out of the picture

Agreed. If it survives until Ophelia moves away, things could get very interesting.

Thanks for the information as well, cycloneye!

[wxmann_91]

I don't think Ophelia is shearing it, it's a weak upper trough that is.

[MiamiensisWx]

I don't think Ophelia is shearing it, it's a weak upper trough that is.

It may be both. The slight interaction of Ophelia may be coupling with the weak upper trough (the main shearing factor) in front of the tail of Ophelia to produce the shear.

Can anyone also post the link to the QUICKSCAT wind chart of the area where the wave is?

[CHRISTY]

its already heading north? shear needs to back off!

[wxmann_91]

its already heading north? shear needs to back off!

Why does it need to back off? I think that we've had enough threats from hurricanes this year.

[LAwxrgal]

its already heading north? shear needs to back off!

Why does it need to back off? I think that we've had enough threats from hurricanes this year.

Exactly...and the Bahamas too? Seems like they're a hotbed for activity this year.

[MiamiensisWx]

Exactly...and the Bahamas too? Seems like they're a hotbed for activity this year.

Agreed... several named systems this year (e.g., Franklin and Katrina) have formed near or in the Bahamas.

The wave continues to persist with convection... here is the latest infra-red imagery...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Here is the latest visible imagery...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg

Finally, here is the latest water vapor imagery...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg

The wave may be looking slightly less organized and more of a mess due to shear ahead of it; however, it is currently in a fairly moist environment. Now we just need to wait and see if it continues to persist and what will happen when Ophelia and the upper-level trough will move out of the area.

[MiamiensisWx]

*BUMP*

Any thoughts, comments, or opinions on the Bahamas wave?

[MiamiensisWx]

The wave is persisting and is spread out just to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola currently, by the way. Shear is currently limiting organization; still, the wave must be watched.

[no advance]

Still there. This area needs to be watched.

[rainstorm]

looks interesting this morning

[KatDaddy]

FYI.......Miami AFD Excerpt:

THE GFS IS SHOWING A
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGRATING WEST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO EASTERN CUBA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
FEATURE MAY SERVE TO RAMP UP MOISTURE LEVELS. WILL MONITOR.