(ophelia) thoughts on southern new england coast potential

[clipper35]

any one have a thought on this potential........thanks

[shaggy]

the potential is there if it turns not turn back out to sea.Would have to be moving really fats to bring you guys much wind though

[wxwatcher91]

I've been monitoring this possibility for the past few days... I didnt want to start the topic because the last time I did (Irene) we didnt get anything and not that I'm wishing for a category 5 up here but it would be very cool to have at least something up here because I have never experienced anything...

looks like we will simply have to monitor the speed of the next westerly swing through and the speed of Ophelia...

[pgoss11]

Wxwatcher I doubt you'd feel any effects up in NH- maybe a few squally showers, but if the NHC track is correct even us in sne would only get some breezy conditions along with some much needed rain.

[krysof]

how about New Jersey?

[pgoss11]

Kysof I think alot depends on the position of the high pressure and how fast she turns ne after landfall. You would be on the western side of the storm so maybe a little rain but not too much wind and that's if Ophelia even survives the night- she's looking pretty sickly right now- upwelling and dry air may just kill her off.

[wxwatcher91]

Wxwatcher I doubt you'd feel any effects up in NH- maybe a few squally showers, but if the NHC track is correct even us in sne would only get some breezy conditions along with some much needed rain.

well the NHC has had trouble forecast 6 hours into the future... not that I'm saying it will continue like that but right now any possible landfall/grazing of New England would happen 5 days from now and the track could vary a lot just over the next 24 hours I bet. for another perspective just look at the cone.

-----------------------------------------------

special weather statement for all of sne INCLUDING southern NH

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
315 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-120300-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
315 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005

...PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION
CENTER...

THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER BRINGS
OPHELIA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATER THIS WEEK...PASSING SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET AS A TROPICAL STORM FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THE MAIN IMPACTS
FROM OPHELIA WOULD BE FELT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ALTHOUGH OPHELIA IS STILL FAR AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND...SWELLS NEAR
5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS MONDAY. AS
OPHELIA BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH...SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RIP CURRENTS
DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK.

MARINERS PLANNING EXTENDED OFFSHORE TRIPS...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD PLAN ON SEEKING SAFE HARBOR LATE
WEDNESDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. BASED UPON THE EXPECTED TRACK...THE THREAT OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS IS GREATEST ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...WHILE THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON OPHELIA
FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER. IF THE TRACK IS EVENTUALLY
ADJUSTED FARTHER OFFSHORE...IT WOULD POSE A THREAT MOSTLY TO THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD BRING A GREATER
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
UPDATED INFORMATION THIS WEEK.

$$

JWD

[pgoss11]

Yes everyone has had a problem with this storm, and like you said things can change by tomorrow morning- we'll just have to keep checking to see how things will change. It is doubtful the track 5 days out will verify when they are having difficulty with a 24 hour forecast.

[JamesFromMaine2]

According to the latest run of the GFDL here in Maine we will be seeing TS force winds and cat 1 force winds!

[pgoss11]

Wow that would be something- tropical storm warning for Maine