Hurricane Jova at CPAC

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME (EP102005) ON 20050912 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050912 0000 050912 1200 050913 0000 050913 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.8N 114.5W 15.2N 116.6W 15.5N 119.0W 15.7N 121.5W
BAMM 14.8N 114.5W 15.5N 116.7W 16.0N 118.9W 16.4N 121.5W
LBAR 14.8N 114.5W 15.1N 116.4W 15.6N 118.6W 15.8N 121.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050914 0000 050915 0000 050916 0000 050917 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.2N 124.1W 17.4N 129.1W 18.4N 133.8W 19.3N 138.8W
BAMM 17.1N 124.0W 18.5N 129.3W 19.7N 134.9W 21.0N 140.3W
LBAR 16.1N 124.5W 17.1N 130.0W 18.5N 135.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 50KTS 51KTS 43KTS 31KTS
DSHP 50KTS 51KTS 43KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 114.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 113.0W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 111.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



First advisory at 11 PM.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wahoo for the Eastern Pacific. Just 7 more to beat the Atlatnic!!!!

[Brent]

Wahoo for the Eastern Pacific. Just 7 more to beat the Atlatnic!!!!

BRING IT ON.

[WindRunner]

Wahoo for the Eastern Pacific. Just 7 more to beat the Atlatnic!!!!

Just 7? And that's assuming the Atlantic and Artic perform a quick switch in mid-September . . .

[cycloneye]

TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005
0300Z MON SEP 12 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 114.9W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 114.9W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 114.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.2N 116.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.5N 118.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.8N 120.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.2N 122.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 126.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 18.0N 133.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 114.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 120246
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2005

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS
DEPICT THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E.
SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE
SITUATED OVER THE EAST QUADRANT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND BENEATH A LOW-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTERWARD...THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD BE MOVING IN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CLOSER TO COOLER
WATERS. THEREFORE...GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
FORECAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/8. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
SITUATED WITHIN THE MID-LAYER FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
FORCING THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AND CLIMATOLOGY.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 14.9N 114.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 15.2N 116.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 15.5N 118.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 15.8N 120.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 16.2N 122.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 17.0N 126.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 18.0N 133.5W 50 KT

[senorpepr]

TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005
0300Z MON SEP 12 2005

That's interesting... "Tropical Depression Noname"? That should be Ten-E.

[cycloneye]

TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005
0300Z MON SEP 12 2005

That's interesting... "Tropical Depression Noname"? That should be Ten-E.

Mike in the header of discussion it says correctly Ten-E.I am sure they will correct that error at the forecast advisorie.

By the way folks when it turns into a tropical storm the name will be Jova.

[THead]

This is probably a really dumb question for those who follow the Pacific.....but I'm curious now, has a hurricane or any tropical system ever hit the west coast US? Like LA or anywhere?

[hurricanefreak1988]

The E-Pac is still open for business? Heck, I forgot all about them. This new depression is going to get a weird name, though. Jova? What's up with that? I tell you, they have the weirdest names over there.

Wahoo for the Eastern Pacific. Just 7 more to beat the Atlatnic!!!!

Give it up Matt, lol. You're gonna be wearing that avatar come December.

[cycloneye]

TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2005

CONVECTION WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY YESTERDAY EVENING UNTIL A NEW BUT
FAIRLY SMALL BURST DEVELOPED AFTER ABOUT 04Z. THE SYSTEM IS
MAINTAINED AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION BASED ON A 02Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
AND ON THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS. EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM
HAS NOT LOOKED VERY IMPRESSIVE RECENTLY... THE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING... WITH WEAK
SHEAR RESULTING FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
DEPRESSION AND EXTENDING WESTWARD. SINCE OCEAN CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE... WITH SSTS 27C OR GREATER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR
THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS... SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED
UNTIL REACHING SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8... WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY
THE EASTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO ALONG ABOUT 23N.
THE FORWARD SPEED IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY SINCE THE
CONVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT DEEP AND THE RIDGE CURRENTLY IS A BIT
NARROW. HOWEVER... THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD HAWAII DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS... LEAVING LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS... AT AN INCREASING
RATE OF FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH
OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... LEANING MORE TOWARD THE
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 15.0N 115.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 15.2N 117.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 15.6N 119.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 15.9N 121.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 16.1N 124.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 16.5N 129.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 17.0N 134.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 17.0N 140.0W 50 KT

[apocalypt-flyer]

This is probably a really dumb question for those who follow the Pacific.....but I'm curious now, has a hurricane or any tropical system ever hit the west coast US? Like LA or anywhere?

A few system track in this direction. SSTs are, however, barely above 24° or 25° North of 27N near the Coast of California and thus systems tend to weaken very fast and barely get above 30N in the Eastern Pacific/California Coast area.

[Patrick99]

It looks like in time, this EPAC storm may become a CPAC storm, judging from the projected path.

[Andrew92]

It looks like in time, this EPAC storm may become a CPAC storm, judging from the projected path.

It would still be Jova though unless it becomes named in the CPAC. That's assuming it becomes a TS at all, which of course is likely.

-Andrew92

[HURAKAN]

This is probably a really dumb question for those who follow the Pacific.....but I'm curious now, has a hurricane or any tropical system ever hit the west coast US? Like LA or anywhere?

A few system track in this direction. SSTs are, however, barely above 24° or 25° North of 27N near the Coast of California and thus systems tend to weaken very fast and barely get above 30N in the Eastern Pacific/California Coast area.

Also, the systems that usually make their way toward the US are mostly found at the end months of the hurricane season when troughs of low pressure force the systems to move northward instead of a more usual westward progression.

[cycloneye]

062
WTPZ45 KNHC 121426
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2005

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH HAS BEEN NOTED WITH T.D. TEN THIS
MORNING...WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES A CONSENSUS T2.0...30
KT...FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THIS WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NEW BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE APPARENT CENTER
WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED DATA. THE DEPRESSION IS
SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WEST TO
140W. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND FAVOR AT
LEAST MODEST INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER 27C SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM TO 50 KT IN 48 HOURS...THEN
HOLDING STEADY THROUGH 120 HOURS AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SSTS COOL
SLIGHTLY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS MOTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS
BASED PRIMARILY ON A COMBINATION OF MICROWAVE DATA FROM LAST NIGHT
AND CONTINUITY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND KEEP THE
SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT BETWEEN
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH FAVOR A WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST
MOTION...AND THE STATISTICAL MODELS WHICH KEEP A WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND MAINTAINS A STEADY 270-280 DEGREE MOTION THROUGH
120 HOURS.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 15.5N 117.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 15.9N 118.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 16.3N 120.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 16.5N 123.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 16.8N 125.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 17.0N 131.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 136.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 17.0N 142.0W 50 KT

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 130250
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2005

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH NO CLEARLY DISCERNABLE
CENTER. THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT PASS...HOWEVER...DID SHOW A BROAD
CIRCULATION. DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THERE HAS BEEN PERHAPS
SOME IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE PRESUMED
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN ACCORD WITH T2.0
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH
OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM WATERS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE...AS INDICATED BY THE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMIC
PREDICTORS IN THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION
IS THEREFORE ANTICIPATED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS
DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM VERY QUICKLY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE DUE TO THE LACK
OF A CLEAR CENTER...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/10. RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES ON A BASIC WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH THE UKMET SIGNIFICANTLY
FASTER AND THE GFDL RATHER SLOWER.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 14.8N 119.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 14.8N 121.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 14.6N 123.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 14.5N 125.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 14.4N 127.3W 40 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 14.0N 132.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 13.5N 136.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 13.5N 140.5W 50 KT

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 130832
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE SEP 13 2005

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE POORLY ORGANIZED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ANALYSIS OF QUIKSCAT AND SSMI DATA FROM AROUND 0200 UTC
SHOWED A BROAD AND POSSIBLY ELONGATED CENTER SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
POSITION. EARLIER BANDING FEATURES NORTH OF THE CENTER HAVE MOSTLY
DISSIPATED...WITH ONLY A FEW CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH T2.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH A DEEP LAYER
ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE PROVIDING A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE INITIAL POSITION WILL KEEP THE
SYSTEM OVER WARM WATER DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHIPS INTENSITY
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72
HOURS...TAKING THE SYSTEM TO 64 KT BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS DESPITE
PERSISTENT NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMIC PREDICTORS. THE GFDL IS QUITE
ERRATIC IN ITS INTENSITY FORECAST...BUT EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENS THE
CYCLONE TO 82 KT NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS MODEL IS ON
THE OTHER EXTREME...DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM VERY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO 55 KT
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION...BUT IS ESTIMATED AT 265/9 BASED
ON A 24-HOUR MOTION. DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO
SLOW DOWN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WHERE IT
IS VERY CLOSE. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 14.2N 119.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 14.0N 121.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 13.8N 123.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 13.6N 125.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 13.5N 127.7W 45 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 13.5N 132.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 13.5N 136.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 18/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W 55 KT

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 131433
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 13 2005

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION
OF THE DEPRESSION. THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
BUT IT APPEARS TO BE TO THE EAST OF THE WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. T-NUMBERS REMAIN ABOUT 1.5 AND 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. VISIBLE IMAGES LATER TODAY
WILL LIKELY HELP US TO HAVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE LOCATION AND
THE INTENSITY.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WHICH IS FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A TRACK SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THIS
PERSISTENT HIGH IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE SO THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY PACKED INDICATING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION.

THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION WILL KEEP THE DEPRESSION OVER
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK.
THEREFORE...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY. THE GFDL IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD EASILY WEAKEN INSTEAD.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 14.2N 121.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 14.2N 122.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 13.8N 124.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 13.7N 126.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 13.7N 128.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 13.7N 133.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 14.0N 137.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 14.5N 141.0W 55 KT

[cycloneye]

TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2005

A SMALL CDO HAS FORMED AND THERE IS A DEVELOPING BAND OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
ARE 2.0 FROM AFWA AND TAFB AND 2.5 FROM SAB. THUS...THE SYSTEM IS
VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWS INCREASING STABILITY ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK. THE GFDL
MODEL FORECASTS INTENSIFICATION INTO A HURRICANE. GLOBAL MODELS DO
NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING. ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS.

A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE...CONTINUES TO FORCE A WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
WESTWARD MOVEMENT. CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/10 ALTHOUGH THE
SHORT-TERM FORWARD SPEED IS SOMEWHAT FASTER. TRACK GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH A TENDENCY FOR A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND SLOWING BY DAYS 4-5. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS AND SIMILAR
THEREAFTER.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A NEW TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS JUST
DEVELOPED A LITTLE OVER 500 N MI TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
TEN-E...AND IT SHOWS SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. SINCE
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD FASTER THAN THE
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING...A SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 14.2N 122.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 14.1N 124.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 13.9N 125.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 13.9N 127.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 13.9N 130.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 134.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 14.0N 138.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 14.5N 141.0W 55 KT