Tropical Depression Kenneth at CPAC

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 140551Z SEP 05//
WTPN 21 PHNC 140600
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6N 115.6W TO 12.8N 121.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.7N 116.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS. THE NEXT SATELLITE INVESTIGATION IS SCHEDULED FOR
150000Z.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 150600Z.
//




The EPAC is more active now as the favorable wet phase of the MJO as TD 10E and now this disturbance are in that basin.

[Hurricanehink]

TD 11 now according to NRL.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN (EP112005) ON 20050914 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050914 1800 050915 0600 050915 1800 050916 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 118.0W 12.8N 119.5W 13.2N 121.1W 13.5N 122.7W
BAMM 12.3N 118.0W 12.9N 119.4W 13.1N 121.0W 13.2N 122.6W
LBAR 12.3N 118.0W 13.0N 119.8W 13.6N 122.0W 14.4N 124.4W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050916 1800 050917 1800 050918 1800 050919 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.7N 124.0W 14.1N 126.7W 15.0N 129.0W 15.6N 131.6W
BAMM 13.2N 124.1W 13.3N 126.8W 14.2N 128.8W 14.8N 130.8W
LBAR 15.1N 127.1W 15.9N 132.5W 16.5N 137.0W 16.4N 140.2W
SHIP 54KTS 59KTS 58KTS 58KTS
DSHP 54KTS 59KTS 58KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 118.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 116.2W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 114.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Yep the models confirm it is a TD now.First advisorie at 2 PM PDT or 5 PM EDT.Now there are two cyclones in the EPAC showing how favorable is the MJO there now.

[Scorpion]

Good the EPAC won't have as much as an embarrasing loss to the Atlantic as it did before.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 142030
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 N MI EAST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E HAS
DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED AT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH TOPS TO -75C. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 300/9. NONE OF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF...ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THIS
SYSTEM EXISTS. THE ECMWF CALLS FOR A ERRATIC WESTWARD MOTION SOUTH
OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INITIAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE WESTWARD WITH TIME. THIS TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE NHC91. SOME ADJUSTMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD OCCUR
ONCE THE INITIAL MOTION IS BETTER KNOWN.

VERTICAL SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL IS THE ONLY MODEL TO
FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL LEAN MORE ON THE SHIPS MODEL.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 12.5N 118.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 13.0N 119.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 13.4N 121.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 13.7N 123.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 125.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 14.5N 128.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 14.5N 131.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 14.5N 134.5W 30 KT

[LAwxrgal]

Geez the Pacific is getting active Two tropical depressions in 2 days...

[cycloneye]

573
WTPZ41 KNHC 150244
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE
DEPRESSION THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION IS PULSING UP AND DOWN ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH IS PARTLY EXPOSED
ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE. A TRMM PASS AT 2203Z CONFIRMS THIS SHEARED
APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
NOW AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FROM TAFB/SAB...THE TRMM PASS SHOWED
NO WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION HIGHER THAN 25 KT.
THERE ARE ALSO NO TRUE CURVED BAND FEATURES WITH A BLOB-LIKE
APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30
KT AND IF THE CONVECTION PERSISTS...THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME THE
11TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON OVERNIGHT.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SEEM FAVORABLE FOR
SLOW STRENGTHENING AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD DUE TO GRADUALLY COOLING SSTS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

THE TRMM PASS ALSO HELPED THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...NOW ABOUT
310/9. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH THAN
EARLIER...PERHAPS RESPONDING TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ALONG 125W. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT... OR
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL.
MODELS ALSO INSIST ON A SLOWER MOTION THAN RECENTLY SEEN AND THE
FORECAST SPEED IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. SOME ADJUSTMENT IN TRACK WILL PROBABLY STILL BE
NEEDED AS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE BETTER ASSIMILATES THE DEPRESSION'S
POSITION AND INTENSITY.

FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 13.0N 119.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 13.5N 120.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 14.0N 121.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 14.5N 123.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 15.0N 124.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 127.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 16.0N 130.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 16.5N 133.5W 50 KT

[hurricanefreak1988]

Good the EPAC won't have as much as an embarrasing loss to the Atlantic as it did before.

Don't be so sure... we've still got the rest of September and October/November to build a big lead once again.

[cycloneye]

TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CLUSTER OF VERY STRONG
CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -80C WHICH HAVE
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 6-8 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE
T3.0...45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KENNETH...THE ELEVENTH
TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON.

INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 35 KT. LAST EVENING THE
CENTER WAS EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CONVECTION...BUT LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW UNDERNEATH THE
STRONG CONVECTION. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS
EMBEDDED IN RELATIVELY LIGHT EASTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN 20N-25N. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
INHIBITING FACTOR COULD BE KENNETH'S PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL STORM
JOVA TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN KENNETH...THEREBY LESSENING THE CHANCES OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES. BEYOND 72
HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 125W.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED RATHER TIGHTLY ALONG A WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER IN
FORWARD SPEED THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. BEYOND 72 HOURS...MODELS SHOW
SOME DIVERGENCE WITH THE GFS CONTINUING A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK...AND THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL WHICH TURNS KENNETH IN A
CYCLONIC LOOP. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT A BIT SLOWER.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 13.1N 119.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 13.5N 120.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 13.9N 121.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 14.3N 123.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 14.7N 124.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 16.5N 128.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 17.0N 131.5W 50 KT

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 151427
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WELL-DEFINED BANDING IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND VERY COLD CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM 35 TO 45 KT AND MAY STILL BE A
LITTLE BEHIND THE CURVE. OUTFLOW IS STRONG TO THE SOUTH BUT
LIMITED ELSEWHERE. INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR THAT OF
JOVA...WITH THE GFDL TAKING THE SYSTEM TO OVER 80 KT BUT THE SHIPS
KEEPING THE CYCLONE AS A TROPICAL STORM. GIVEN THE MORE IMPRESSIVE
ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM...I TEND TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFDL
SOLUTION. INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS
AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOP THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF KENNETH AND END
UP HAVING THIS SYSTEM ABSORB KENNETH. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT
CONSIDERED REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING
THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS AND GFDL
GUIDANCE...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE
DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 13.1N 120.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 13.3N 121.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 13.6N 122.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 13.9N 123.6W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 14.2N 124.6W 70 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 14.8N 126.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 15.5N 129.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W 60 KT

[cycloneye]

299
WTPZ21 KNHC 152038
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
2100Z THU SEP 15 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 120.7W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 120.7W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 120.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.1N 121.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.3N 122.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.6N 123.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.9N 125.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 131.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 120.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Scorpion]

Yea the Atlantic is going to smoke the EPAC soon(well it already has) with the disturbance close to PR and 95L, and the wet phase moving in.

[cycloneye]

TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED CLOUD PATTERN
FOR KENNETH...WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND NOT A LOT OF CONCENTRATED CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/5. KENNETH IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE...AND IS IN BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM JOVA TO THE WEST AND AN
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE EAST. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THAT KENNETH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
WESTWARD...POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AS THE DISTURBANCE TO
THE EAST DEVELOPS AND GETS CLOSER. THE GFDL AND GFS CALL FOR A
LOOP AS KENNETH INTERACTS WITH THE DISTURBANCE. SINCE OTHER MODELS
DO NOT AGREE WITH THIS...THE TRACK FORECAST WILL NOT FORECAST ANY
INTERACTION AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A SLOW GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNS... GUNA...AND CONU FOR THE
FIRST 72 HR...THEN A BIT FASTER AFTER THAT TIME.

KENNETH IS OVER 28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM INTO
COOLER WATERS IN 48-72 HR...AND KENNETH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN UNTIL THEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 70 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL 80 KT FORECAST
AND THE SHIPS 65 KT FORECAST. AFTER 72 HR...KENNETH SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER.

SHOULD KENNETH AND THE DISTURBANCE INTERACT...BOTH THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS WILL LIKELY NEED CONSIDERABLE REVISION.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 13.0N 120.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 13.1N 121.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 13.3N 122.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 13.6N 123.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 13.9N 125.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 14.5N 127.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 15.5N 131.0W 55 KT

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE KENNETH (EP112005) ON 20050916 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050916 0000 050916 1200 050917 0000 050917 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 121.3W 13.1N 122.4W 13.3N 123.5W 13.6N 124.6W
BAMM 13.0N 121.3W 13.1N 122.4W 13.2N 123.5W 13.5N 124.8W
LBAR 13.0N 121.3W 13.2N 122.9W 13.9N 124.8W 14.8N 126.8W
SHIP 65KTS 76KTS 80KTS 79KTS
DSHP 65KTS 76KTS 80KTS 79KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050918 0000 050919 0000 050920 0000 050921 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.9N 125.7W 14.1N 127.9W 14.1N 130.1W 14.6N 131.0W
BAMM 13.8N 125.9W 13.9N 127.5W 14.1N 128.6W 15.0N 128.0W
LBAR 15.7N 128.9W 17.1N 133.1W 18.5N 137.3W 20.6N 141.3W
SHIP 76KTS 64KTS 52KTS 42KTS
DSHP 76KTS 64KTS 52KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 121.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 119.8W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 118.7W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM



Kenneth is now a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

188
WTPZ21 KNHC 160234
TCMEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
0300Z FRI SEP 16 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 121.6W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 121.6W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 121.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.2N 122.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.5N 123.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.9N 124.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.2N 125.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.7N 127.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 95NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 15.0N 129.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 15.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 121.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[Brent]

Depression to a hurricane in 24 hours.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGEST
THAT KENNETH HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE. IMAGERY DEPICTS A
WELL DEVELOPED SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE BAND NOW EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST
SEMI-CIRCLES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
65 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT INCREASES THE WINDS TO 80 KT IN 24 HOURS...
WHICH AGREES WITH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. BEYOND DAY
3...KENNETH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8. KENNETH IS SOUTH OF A MID- LEVEL
RIDGE...AND IS SITUATED BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM JOVA TO THE WEST AND
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THE GFDL/GFDN/UKMET/
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE AN ABRUPT REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH KENNETH AND A
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST SIMULTANEOUSLY
TURNING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A BREAK IN THE MID- LAYER RIDGE.
THE NOGAPS DEPICTS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS DEVELOPMENT OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST...HENCE...MAINTAINING KENNETH ON A
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MIRRORS
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS SLOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINING PERIOD CONFORMING TO THE GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 13.1N 121.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 13.2N 122.3W 75 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 13.5N 123.3W 80 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 13.9N 124.4W 80 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 14.2N 125.3W 75 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 14.7N 127.3W 65 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 15.0N 129.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 15.5N 130.5W 50 KT

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this keeps up the Eastern Pacific should pull ahead. Wahooo GO Eastern Pacific go...The Atlantic is dead in the water!!!!!