Area NE of PR....Area to Watch!

[Vortex]

The area of disturbed weather associated with an old frontal boundary NE of PR will need to be monitored very closely. At this time a trough to the west is inhibiting development. However, as Odelphia begins to increase in forward speed and head NE this trough will lift out and be replaced by ridging. Looking at all the global models they have continued to insist in bringing this system west once the trough lifts. All indications are that this entity will be in the bahamas around Sunday. Many of the models head this system west through S.Florida(UKMET) or the Florida straits(GFS) some as a closed low and others an open wave. Needless to say being mid-september with a system to head west with 4 days of warm water a relatively favorable upper-air environment this system must be watched closely.

IMO: TS with 60mph in central bahamas Sunday.

[Vortex]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[jlauderdal]

The area of disturbed weather associated with an old frontal boundary NE of PR will need to be monitored very closely. At this time a trough to the west is inhibiting development. However, as Odelphia begins to increase in forward speed and head NE this trough will lift out and be replaced by ridging. Looking at all the global models they have continued to insist in bringing this system west once the trough lifts. All indications are that this entity will be in the bahamas around Sunday. Many of the models head this system west through S.Florida(UKMET) or the Florida straits(GFS) some as a closed low and others an open wave. Needless to say being mid-september with a system to head west with 4 days of warm water a relatively favorable upper-air environment this system must be watched closely.

IMO: TS with 60mph in central bahamas Sunday.

not sure what develops out of this but it sure seems on track to head through florida into the gulf per model guidance and NWS offices forecasts in FL.

[jlauderdal]

The area of disturbed weather associated with an old frontal boundary NE of PR will need to be monitored very closely. At this time a trough to the west is inhibiting development. However, as Odelphia begins to increase in forward speed and head NE this trough will lift out and be replaced by ridging. Looking at all the global models they have continued to insist in bringing this system west once the trough lifts. All indications are that this entity will be in the bahamas around Sunday. Many of the models head this system west through S.Florida(UKMET) or the Florida straits(GFS) some as a closed low and others an open wave. Needless to say being mid-september with a system to head west with 4 days of warm water a relatively favorable upper-air environment this system must be watched closely.

IMO: TS with 60mph in central bahamas Sunday.

not sure what develops out of this but it sure seems on track to head through florida into the gulf per model guidance and NWS offices forecasts in FL.

[canegrl04]

We definitely don't want to see another Gulf cane

[KatDaddy]

Spooky tropical update from private ImpactWeather Tropical Update video for this morning.

Spooky for TX that is. The system near the Bahamas may approach S FLA as a TD and be in the Central GOM as a TS or even Hurricane and conditions will be favorable for development. This is 6 days out. First preliminary thoughts for the coastline effected are.....

N Mexico to the Central LA Coast.

Its been 22 years since Alicia along the Upper TX Coast and we have been very very lucky. We have never gone more than 22 years between major hurricane landfalls.

No to scare anyone but it just goes to show TX can still be threaten durng the last part of Sept and early Oct. We should not let our guard down.

[cajungal]

Just hope it does not come near Louisiana. We do need the rain, but not from a tropical system. I can't believe we have not had any rain since Katrina hit over 2 weeks ago. We used to have a thunderstorm every single day during the summer. It has been so hot and humid here. Even when Katrina hit, it was mostly just a wind event. We did not get much rain. Because we were on the western edge of her.

[deltadog03]

your right, that goes to show us that it dosn't matter what time in the season we can get hit just like everyone else...I said about a month ago that I think our summer is going to go out with a bang...I mainly ment by the heat that we are stuck in...imo the ridge placement for at least the next couple of weeks will be such like july...

[CHRISTY]

i think this area should be watched more the 95L because its close to florida and because of its future track!if things become favorable who says this cant become a hurricane or tropical storm with time has to be watched! if anybody has model links or information on this please send it to me thanks.

[cjrciadt]

i think this area should be watched more the 95L because its close to florida and because of its future track!if things become favorable who says this cant become a hurricane or tropical storm with time has to be watched! if anybody has model links or information on this please send it to me thanks.

It is pretty easy to spend too much focus on one area. Just look at 92L I watched that and ignored to blob of the coast that became Ophelia, and 92L did not develop. It will be here by Mon. we will have a better idea of development then.

[Mattie]

With all the hype and the close eyes on 95L, and with this one - will these be close enough to affect each other in some way between now and 6 days out? Six days out being next Wednesday seems a long time for this to travel to the coast to me, but I haven't a clue as you can probably tell from this question.

Thanks.

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

The shear is droppping

[CHRISTY]

i think its going to develope and head towards florida!

[CHRISTY]

can this soon become an invest?

[cjrciadt]

The locals mets here in Central FL, still expect only a tropical wave by Mon. in S FL no development. For Now.

[CHRISTY]

isnt highpressure suppose to build over it in a day or to? is there any model as of right now that developes this into a storm??

[Swimdude]

The locals mets here in Central FL, still expect only a tropical wave by Mon. in S FL no development. For Now.

If that's the case, then indeed, this is the storm that the models were predicting to head towards Texas. Or in the words of the Houston-Galveston update yesterday... "A little something-something from the Gulf."

[sfwx]

AFDMLB 9-15-05


SAT-SUN...PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL CHANGE MUCH SAT WITH
AREA IN WEAK COL REGION THEN BY SUNDAY THE EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WILL START AN ONSHORE GRADIENT FLOW.
RAIN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK VERY HIGH AS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON POPS IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA WHERE LATE SEA BREEZE MERGER OCCURS. GFS SHOWS SOME SLIGHT
DRYING SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. INSTABILITY LOOKS
MARGINAL ONCE AGAIN AND HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON POPS
ACROSS ALL ZONES...THOUGH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
OVER THE INTERIOR.

DAYS 4-7 (MON-THU)...ONSHORE GRADIENT FLOW WILL TIGHTEN MON AS
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
HIGHEST MOISTURE STAYING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
PENINSULA. HAVE LEFT 30 POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND 20 ELSEWHERE...
BUT MAY HAVE TO SHOW MORE OF RANGE IN LATER FORECASTS. DRYING
EXPECTED BEHIND THE WAVE FOR TUE AND WED WITH SAME BASIC FORECAST OF
20 POPS EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL
BE A LITTLE GREATER. GFS SHOWS ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHING ON
THU BUT WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS I AM NOT SURE ABOUT THE
SOURCE OF THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE.

[CHRISTY]

flareing up this afternoon!! will it persist? its flareing up more then 95L?