Where 95L/TD-17 may go...

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 6:56 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

First of all, I say...throw out all the models, they are on some serious drugs. Secondly, DO NOT automatically assume a systems a fishs until all the facts are straight. I remember how angry I was when automatically everyone said TD-10 was "FISHY" "FISH" FISHY FISHY"! Well...as I had always assumed...it was not a "fish" and helped give the spark to create a Category 5 Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

With 95L/TD-17...it's future is still uncertain. I believe it will become a hurricane, and even a major hurricane over the next 120 hours...however...most are wondering about the track.

I believe the track of the system will be west-northwest to northwest, then a turn back west-northwest in 120-144 hours...due to the increasing ridge of high pressure. This scenario would likely put the USA under the threat of a major hurricane, but...what else is new?

Thats my two cents...time will tell.

#2 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:27 am

Good call Mike....I'm with you.

KatDaddy · #3 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:31 am

Mike I must admit I see the scenario. This powerful ridge is forecasted to push 96L into the BOC by weeks end. As the ridge moves E it will push 95L more W than N.

chrisnnavarre · #4 Postby **chrisnnavarre** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:33 am

Gulf Storm, Ivan II...especially since I believe Texas will be protected due to climatology....

Guess the big guy up stairs is going to take out the remainder of the Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle before the season is finished.

I may have to brush up my resume and think about moving north maybe to Tennessee.

and I might add, I was just starting to look forward to fall youth soccer and the late September inshore fishing season.

Website · #5 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:35 am

I don't think the NHC is buying the northward motion either... 13.5 N/60.5 W tonight and

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES ON THE
SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN.

Obviously if they thought it would miss the Caribbean they wouldn't say "In the Caribbean".

vaffie · #6 Postby **vaffie** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:42 am

Now that we have a clean center with convection right over it and little chance of continued northerly reformations, this morning's satellite loop looks like it's moving due west. I still think it could enter the Caribbean. But if as Floydbuster says, it does go northwest to north of Puerto Rico, I agree that it will probably turn back to the west. On the other hand, if it goes into the Caribbean. It will probably move westnorthwest due to its further distance south and head towards the southern coast of Cuba. Anyway, those are my thoughts. -vaffie

apocalypt-flyer · #7 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:48 am

Well, quite, I think a US coast hit is definately very possible, because if it curves to the northwestward motion, which all models indicate, I don't believe in, it will somewhat recurve to the west again due to the High Pressure area between Bermuda and the Azores. Very similar to Frances ..
The other possibility, that it goes into the Carribean sea, seems more likely at least to me and that it does an Ivan/Emily like track ..

f5 · #8 Postby f5 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:04 pm

chrisnnavarre wrote:Gulf Storm, Ivan II...especially since I believe Texas will be protected due to climatology....

Guess the big guy up stairs is going to take out the remainder of the Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle before the season is finished.

I may have to brush up my resume and think about moving north maybe to Tennessee.

and I might add, I was just starting to look forward to fall youth soccer and the late September inshore fishing season.

that summertime High is still parked over my house with temps ranging from 95-100.A little rain is nice but not from a hurricane

#9 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:23 pm

is there a chance of this thing getting into the gulf and then us having to worry about a front sweeping it inot west coast florida???

perk · #10 Postby **perk** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:34 pm

What did that forecaster at the NHC say about (CLIMATOLOGY). IMO there is too much emphasis sometimes put on this word.

beachbum_al · #11 Postby **beachbum_al** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:42 pm

chrisnnavarre wrote:Gulf Storm, Ivan II...especially since I believe Texas will be protected due to climatology....

Guess the big guy up stairs is going to take out the remainder of the Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle before the season is finished.

I may have to brush up my resume and think about moving north maybe to Tennessee.

and I might add, I was just starting to look forward to fall youth soccer and the late September inshore fishing season.

I hope not! But I have a bad feeling about this storm. Laugh at me okay but before Katrina came this way I kept having nightmares about a major hurricane wiping out most of the Gulf Coast. I started having more dreams this week about another hurricane that hits near this area and finishes up what Katrina didn't get. I hope I am wrong and I hope what I am having storm phobia.

truballer#1 · #12 Postby **truballer#1** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:51 pm

[/quote]I hope not! But I have a bad feeling about this storm. Laugh at me okay but before Katrina came this way I kept having nightmares about a major hurricane wiping out most of the Gulf Coast. I started having more dreams this week about another hurricane that hits near this area and finishes up what Katrina didn't get. I hope I am wrong and I hope what I am having storm phobia.[/quote]

all the talk of katrina and maybe another major could give dreams like dat.

PerfectStorm · #13 Postby **PerfectStorm** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:55 pm

looks like some people I disagree with in this post :roll:

(amazing even after Katrina) this is looking like a major threat and would be a tremendous disaster if it gets into the GOM east of TX. the ridging although predicted to be strong is gonna be more tricky because we should start to see some climatological fronting that will weaken it and cause some type of northward component. TX least likely worry at this point, waaaay to early. folks in Central GOM/SE/SW FL coast need to watch closely.

#14 Postby **fci** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:59 pm

PerfectStorm wrote:looks like some people I disagree with in this post (amazing even after Katrina) this is looking like a major threat and would be a tremendous disaster if it gets into the GOM east of TX. the ridging although predicted to be strong is gonna be more tricky because we should start to see some climatological fronting that will weaken it and cause some type of northward component. TX least likely worry at this point, waaaay to early. folks in Central GOM/SE/SW FL coast need to watch closely.

With the 5 PM discussion, how do people see this as "Central GOM/SE/SW FL coast need to watch closely ?

I must be missing something because the models and discussion now read to me like this is a potential fish. Maybe I'm just missing something here... :fishing:

jkt21787 · #15 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:02 pm

fci wrote:I must be missing something because the models and discussion now read to me like this is a potential fish. Maybe I'm just missing something here...

You are...

You are lacking the skill to w.ishcast! :lol:

Come on, its fun, just say it will hit the US, preferably Lake Worth, FL

Just kidding BTW, before everyone lashes out at me..

PerfectStorm · #16 Postby **PerfectStorm** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:07 pm

FCI point I was trying to make was that there is definitely going to be a more northerly component to the eventual track of this system, if the ridging should strengthen significantly then we would see the possibility of an East Coast or Central to E GOM system. I was trying to intimate that TX or a western push to the left is the least likely scenario based on both models and climatology. 8-)

perk · #17 Postby **perk** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:10 pm

Perfectstorm i've yet to see any model take TD17 into the GOM.

f5 · #18 Postby f5 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:11 pm

this time the eye may go over NO i hope i'm wrong

#19 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:12 pm

f5 wrote:this time the eye may go over NO i hope i'm wrong

Where do you see this??? I see nothing to support your comment.

#20 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:15 pm

It appears that there will be a big gap in the ridge to the north in 4-5 days as a front moves off the east U.S. Coast. Seventeen / Philippe definitely looks like a fish to me. Could possibly brush the NE Caribbean, but it is already on a NW course. The center isn't under the convection, it's a little north of the convection. Chances of any impact on the east U.S. coast look extremely slim, and it doesn't look like it'll be tracking west thru the Caribbean.

So if you are looking for a U.S. threat, look to 96L not this one. If you live in the NE Caribbean, keep your eyes on TD 17.

Where 95L/TD-17 may go...

Where 95L/TD-17 may go...

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