Inland total destruction??

[jes]

As everyone already knows most people die from the storm surge --- not the wind. Storm chasers and weather men go to the coastal areas to find strong buildings the ride the storms out in. They must not think there's a great chance of death due to wind damage alone or they wouldn't do that. I've posted here (mostly during Ivan) that to leave Mobile is very difficult since I have two disabled elderly parents to take with me. I can't even get my dad in my van by myself --- have to call 911 for help. So taking the necessary precautions and staying "put" in some ways is safer for my family. When a storm is threatening I never know whether to leave or not. Can someone tell me the real physical danger of riding through a storm 30 miles inland in a structurely sound house with no chance of flood. We see the devastation on the Mississippi coast ---- not inland. I know trees come down and there's always a danger of a tree hitting the house, but what if you're in a house with no trees around it. There's been devastation all around Mobile in the last 12 months --- our next door neighbors have experienced extreme damage --Ivan to the East and Katrina to the West. It's like we're the new spared area. We really have not had a severe storm siince Fredric. I've heard people here say that they will evacuate even for a Cat 1 storm. It's too soon for another storm --- people aren't rational and will panic. I wonder if there are even motels North available --- many still may be full of Katrina people. I don't think we can evacuate West because of Katrina so our selection is severly limited this year. If I didn't have my parents I could leave easily, but getting them out is a major problem and may be more dangerous than staying. I was here for Frederic and I think only one person died because they left their home during the storm. Frederic was a weak Cat 4. So, those of you who have been through a Cat 4 or stronger would you please let me know what damage your city residents who were 30 to 40 miles inland experienced --- I mean "whole house destruction --- not shingles, fences and trees down.

[gtalum]

It seems to me that you'd probably be okay in just about any storm in those conditions. However, you'd have to consider the possibility of living without electricity for a long time afterward. Would that affect your ailing parents' health? Also, there may be no emergency services for a while afterward.

[Skyline]

Well . . . I don't think you'd see "coastal" type destruction at your local. Sure, stray tornadoes excepting. My concern, if I were you, would be IF my parents needed any type of electricity to maintain life support. I say this since most likely if a big one hits you will lose power for an extended amount of time. That's how I'd make the decision to leave or not: If those I'm caring for need electricity to survive it is best to relocate to a place closer to medical facilities and sure electrical power.

You could buy a generator of course, and water, and food . . .

[inotherwords]

I think you raise some very good questions. I've wondered about this myself.

Personally, I would like to see someone produce maps after hurricanes that show in color coding how far the storm surge went inland and how far inland the various degrees of destruction went. It doesn't have to be a perfect map, but I think it would help understand what's possible. I think it's always possible for destruction to be greater or lesser than what is shown, which is why you could only use this map as a rule of thumb. We all know that people who survived Camille thought there couldnt' be anything worse than that, and they were wrong. So the danger would be in trusting that these maps are "absolutes" in predicting what will happen in future storms. Maybe Skeetobite would be open to producing historical maps like this for the larger storms that have destructive storm surges, such as Ivan and Katrina.

I'm only a mile from the gulf and along an inlet creek, so I know I'm very vulnerable. Our local mets say that storm surge on this area of the coast would be 18 feet at the most due to topography, and I'm 13 feet above sea level. So at one mile from the inlet, inside several barrier islands, what would a 18 foot storm surge look like inside my house? Would it be five feet? Or would it be a little bit less because there are islands and stuff inbetween me and the gulf? I never seem to be able to get clear answers on this kind of thing and I'd like to understand it better.

[skysummit]

This past week, I've been inland 50 miles on the Miss. Gulf Coast and I have seen total roof failures. Most wooden structures we're totally destroyed. There were no gas station canopies left and no fences up any longer. Brick homes looked ok for the most part with some roof damage...most due to trees. A lot of business have lost their entire roof.

[Radar]

jes,

Maybe you would like to consider a "Special needs" shelter for your parents. Chances are they would let you stay there with them since you are the primary caregiver. An ambulance would come to pick up your parents if you needed them too. The special needs shelters are stocked well, have generator power and healthcare professionals. You should call the civil defense office in your area to find out where the special needs shelter will be located in the time of an emergency...


Good Luck

[inotherwords]

My mother is dependent on a nebulizer twice a day, which runs on eletricity. So I've made sure to have an inverter and a device that would let her run it off the car battery.

We have a generator, too.

I don't think you can discount damage 50 miles inland in the biggest of storms. Arcadia Florida was almost leveled by Charley and it is well inland, at least 40-50 miles or more.

[jes]

All shelters in Mobile (including the special needs shelter) will only withstand a Cat 3. That's why, during Dennis, our governor ordered a mandatory evacuation for the entire city of Mobile ---- that was a political liability move because the Red Cross refused to man our shelters for Dennis. Evidently the red cross had given Mobile plently of notice but the city did nothing to upgrade the shelters. I do feel the house may stand up better than any of our shelters in Mobile. My parents don't need life support equipment that requires electricity --- thank goodness!
When a storm is approaching the news talks about the "extreme danger" approaching a specific city --- like Mobile or even Houston. They forget to say "but if you live in West Mobile you're 40 miles inland and probably won't all die" or if you're in downtown Houston you're 60 miles inland and probably won't all die." After the storms they just show the worst areas or the most devastated areas. I wish they would be more realistic. During Frederic I heard the national news was reporting we were all starving --- Actually we were eating very well - Your idea of a damage chart after storms is a wonderful idea ---- it would be so helpful to all of us who are in the path to make good decisions rather than panicy decisions regarding evacuation.

[inotherwords]

Thank you jes. I have PM'ed Skeetobite to see what they say.

[Huckster]

Baton Rouge, LA is between 60 and 90 miles or so inland, depending on what direction a storm moves. Inspite of not being a coastal city, this area has seen significant damage from hurricanes. The core of strongest winds shrinks quickly when a hurricane moves inland, but if you happen to be right near the center/eye, then you can still get serious wind damage, and several hurricanes have still been quite destructive once they got here.

Since 1851, hurricanes in 1860, 1879, 1909, 1915, 1926, 1934, 1947 and 1965 have produced lots of significant damage here, and by that, I mean more than just lots and lots of trees down. I mean structural damage to homes, businesses, and government facilities. I'm working on transcribing articles from the Baton Rouge newspapers that deal with those particular storms. Here's one that I posted a while back from the 1879 hurricane...

A TERRIFIC TEMPEST.

The Angry Winds Sweep Through Baton Rouge and Surrounding Country,

Leveling and Unroofing Residences, Sugar Houses, and Cotton Gins !

The Cotton and Cane fields Laid Waste !

The Steamer Trenton and a Large Number of Coal and Other Barges Sunk.

The Storm King Reigns Supreme During Nine Successive Hours.

Destruction and Desolation !

The first of September 1879, will long be remembered as one of the "Dark Days" in the history of our community. On the night before our population had gone to rest with hearts filled with the hope that
BRIGHT DAYS OF PROSPERITY
were in store for all. The fields were laden with bountiful crops, from whose proceeds a revival of business and industry would again re-establish the broken fortunes of those of our people whom the past years of misrule, failure of crops, and the pestilence of 1878, had well nigh reduced to absolute want. All these blessings were at hand; the husbandmen had begun to gather in this wealth. Our country was about to awaken as though the past had been but
A HIDEOUS NIGHTMARE.
There would be joy and happiness in East Baton Rouge during the fall and winter.
The sky on Sunday night was cloudy, though nothing indicated the aerial disturbance that approaching morn would usher in.
On Monday the day opened with a light rain; by eight o'clock a Northeast wind was blowing, carrying with it volumes of constantly increasing rain, until the hour of meridian when suddenly the wind increased in violence, soon attaining
THE FORCE OF A TORNADO;
at one o'clock the scene had changed and the Demon of destruction was at work. Huge trees were being prostrated to the earth and uprooted, the crash of falling timbers and walls was heard at intervals first in one direction then in another. Scarcely a fence was left standing,
AND TORRENTS OF RAIN
deluged the streets. The sight was an appalling one, and anxious hearts were now expecting naught but the worst tidings. The town was covered with constantly increasing debris of all kinds. At about three o'clock it seemed as though the hurricane had done its work. The wind had slackened in its force, and the rain had nearly ceased. At about four o'clock however the wind shifted around to the Northwest and then it seemed as though nothing would stand before it; the damage being inflicted minute after minute was heart rending. At nightfall all hope of its cessation had ended and everyone was prepared for the worst. To save property was no longer an aim. There was
PRAYING IN MANY A HOUSEHOLD
that the lives of dear ones might be spared and saved from the impending calamity!!
Never before in the recollection of the oldest inhabitants had this city been subjected to such a visitation. Nothing could be done but to await the worst, and that seemed yet to be in reserve. The gale continued on with unabated fury until the hour of eight p. m. when a notable change became plainly discernible. By nine o'clock all danger had passed and it was evident that the storm fiend, had abandoned its prey.
It is only after the battle that the losses are counted; and now comes the painful description of the devastation created during those eight hours of anguish and terror:
The Ferry boat Sophie was dismantled and beached. Five coal Flats belonging the Messrs. Coyle Wilmot & Co., were sunk; loss about $2,500.
Messrs. Wood and Widney save nothing of their coal yard but the Tug Mamie Wood. Loss $20,000.
Mr. F. M. Brook's Drug Store was crushed in by the falling of the gable end of the store occupied by Mr. B. Feibelman. Loss about $2,000. The north end of the brick house lately occupied by Mrs. Lacrampe, was blown down. The roof of Mr. Capdevielle's store was torn off.
The colored Baptist Church near Prof. Magruder was levelled to the earth. The gable end of Mr. Castro's residence was blown down. Connor's Gin was also torn by the wind. The gable end of a brick building on Florida street was blown down. Some of the iron roofing on the Garig warehouse was torn off. The west end gable of Mrs. Kauffman's store was blown down. At the Stephen place a large stable was levelled. Mr. Eli Thomas' warehouse was also levelled. Mrs. Chaney's stable was destroyed. The north end gable of Mrs. Walsh's brick store was demolished. Some 150 feet of the north wall of the Penitentiary was blown down.
Sam Campbell's new house in Spanish town was destroyed. The roof on the west side of the Penitentiary was torn off. Messrs' Kleinert and Michal's cooper-shop was damaged to the amount of $1,000. We might go on ad infinitum to enumerate the damage inflicted upon the property of almost every citizen in this city either in the way of fences, sheds, stables and out buildings torn down, and houses unroofed and otherwise maltreated. Fruit trees, and others of every size and description were uprooted and blown down.
It is impossible to compute the amount of losses in dollars and cents. It is variously estimated in this city alone at from fifty to seventy-five thousand dollards.
IN THE COUNTRY
The following letter, written by Capt. J. C. Charrotte, will give an idea of the nature of the destruction done in the neighboring country to crops and buildings:
“The result of the storm yesterday to me is: my barn and stables were blown flat to the ground. The east end of the sugar house over the engine was blown off and taken about one hundred yards, Several parts of the engine were broken. The top part of both of the large brick chimneys were blown down. The sugar cane, cotton, and corn is flat on the ground.” Mr. Charrotte adds: “I have never experienced such a severe storm. Trees that no doubt have been standing for centuries were uprooted and blown down. Thank God no lives were lost.” Capt. Charrotte also states that the gin house on the Rev. Mr. Patterson’s plantation was blown down.
A large number of gin and sugar houses and cane sheds were destroyed. From every portion of the parish and in West Baton Rouge come these harrowing tails.
On the Henry Von Phul place, the roof of the sugar house fell in killing 29 of his mules. The roads are blocked up by fallen trees, and gigantic oaks through the forests are levelled to the earth.
THE STEAMER TRENTON
Was overtaken by the gale opposite the Conrad place. The officers soon discovered that the boat could not live through it. They landed the passengers who took shelter at the Conrad house, thus saving their lives with the exception of Father Olivier, of Grand Coteau, a Catholic priest, W. B. Faulk, clerk of the steamer Tensas, a man from Muscatine, Iowa, whose name is unknown, and a white deck hand; name unknown. Mr. Wm. Conrad courageously undertook to go to the rescue of father Olivier in a skiff, but the boat was soon swamped by the waves. The boat and cargo were, of course, entirely lost, together with 95 head of cattle penned on the lower deck.
The officers and crew acted with the greatest coolness and gallantry, as did also Mr. Lewis Vinet. The brave Mate, Mr. Wash Harbrough, was the last to leave the steamer.
The passengers, officers, and crew, were received by the Messrs. Conrad and families with that generous hospitality for which they are so justly reputed. Every comfort that could be given the refugees was extended to them. The following letter of acknowledgement speaks volumes in praise of those kind people:
We the undersigned passengers and officers of the ill-fated steamer Trenton desire to testify to the kindness shown us by Messrs. Conrad and family after the loss of the boat. All possible attentions were there bestowed upon us and we cannot find words to express our thanks:
Chas. E. Lehman,
Gus Mayo,
Miss A. Maher,
A.H. Generes & Lady
M. B. Willis,
Thos. Brady,
Lewis Vinett,
Leon Lanet
Thos Knee, Capt.
H. Molaison, Clerk
Charley Florat
O. S. Hinkley,
W. Harbrough, mate
Thos. Lyons,
K. A. Dunbar, pilot
John King,
R. H. McDowell, pilot.
To Mr. Chas. E. Lehman, one of the passengers, we are indebted for the above information.
INCIDENTS.
On the Weick & McMullen plantation a long shed, appertaining to the east side of the residence was lifted bodily and carried over the roof of the building into the yard on the west side, despite the obstruction of the chimneys in its way. On this place we found that the sugar cane, although lying prostrate, is fast straightening; cotton is again opening and shows signs of vitality. These gentlemen suffered the loss of their cane shed and a gin house that were blown down, the latter breaking several wagons that were housed therein.
CONDITION OF THE CROPS.
From our own observation and the opinion of experienced planters, we feel authorized in asserting that should the remainder of the season be dry and favorable, most of the present damage done to the crops will be regained, save in some exceptional cases. The loss of buildings destroyed will of course bear heavily on the individual sufferers, but we are happy in saying “that all is not lost.”
SAVED
Since writing the above we learn that Father Olivier and others reported lost on the Trenton, saved themselves by clinging to the keel of the boat until they succeeded in reaching the West Baton Rouge side.

I'd estimate the wind gusts here had to be 100 mph during that storm, possibly 110 or 120. Just recently, Katrina produced such winds as far north as the Hattiesburg, MS area.

The worst storm here struck in 1909. I've not yet finished getting the reports from that storm transcribed, but here are a few facts on this storm's effects in Baton Rouge (this storm killed 350 people in LA)...

Every building in the city damaged to some degree
All barns flattened
Spots with 50% of the trees down
Every electrical line and pole down
Hundreds of ships sunk in the Mississippi River
Almost all black churches in the city destroyed
Governor's mansion uninhabitable (no windows, severely damaged roof)
Capitol building lost roof, all windows, many records destroyed
Significant structural damage to many homes and businesses, including some two story buildings even being leveled

In the days before Hilda hit in 1964, the newspapers proclaimed that no bad storms had ever struck Baton Rouge. That storm and then Betsy in 1965 would show otherwise

It is rare to see this kind of damage 60 miles or more inland, but if a storm is very strong and is moving quickly, it is possible. Even with wind gusts to 100 mph or so, most houses will probably not lose roofs, but you should prepare to be without power for weeks. I don't think the winds from Katrina exceeded 60 mph in gusts in Baton Rouge, but I didn't have power for 4 days. If you have special needs or are disabled, even an extended power loss could be life-threatening, and at the very least, miserable.

[Persepone]

The Hurricane of 1938 did significant damage (roofs removed, walls down, etc. in Peterborough, New Hampshire! It is very far from the coast!!!

All things are possible.

However, I do believe that flooding is the big danger and tornadoes spawned by the hurricane are the next big danger if you are that far from the coastline. The wind damage is, as you say, more likely to be from trees down, airborne missiles, etc. and hurricane shutters, etc. can help with a bunch of that type of damage. If you are on high ground and would not flood, you might find yourself on a little island...

Yes, the problem is more likely to be the lack of electricity, of emergency medical care, etc.

I do like the idea of going to "respite care" center or some local "nursing home" type facility that is relatively local several days in advance--when you can call the ambulance or other "patient transport" and get your parents to a safe place (or relatively safe place) in the city. There they are less likely to be out of reach of generators, emergency medical care, etc. And getting there and back is not as much wear and tear on your parents. And again, choose one that looks as if it is sturdily built, is on high ground, etc. I suspect that the success of such a plan is to have the plan in the first place--and then to have plans A, B and C using 3 separate respite care centers or nursing homes so that you can try plan A first, Plan B second and Plan C third--but very quickly--and in advance of a storm.

The earlier you make any move that you make, the more orderly and the less stressful it will be for your parents. It is a lot easier moving elderly patients when speed is not a factor. The attendants are more relaxed, etc. and the trip is faster because the roads aren't clogged with traffic, etc. and you aren't all stressed out, etc. Of course if you evacuate to some place nearby, you can go home daily (before the storm) and feed your pets, etc. and still get back to the refuge safely--and afterward you can probably go home and see what the situation is before having your parents moved back in.

The issue then becomes one of cost. However, you might well be entitled to some funds for this type of transfer and I'd inquire from your local elder care coordinators &/or senior citizen center, etc. Some of this might, in fact, be covered by some type of insurance. But you won't kinow if you don't ask.

I do not think the generator (or even inverter) approaches would work well in this situation. A "genny" does require some mechanical ability, some knowledge, some skill--and a strong arm to start it! An inverter is somewhat easier to use--but still has issues (including extension cord to the medical equipment, etc.) and of course it assumes you can run your car in an area where it is safe to do so and not get carbon monoxide in your house, yada, yada, yada.... In the best of times, two invalids are a lot for one person to cope with. And I believe you said that one of them has Alzheimers (?) if I remember correctly, in addition to the physical problems, old age, etc.

I'd go and have a bunch of conversations with local disaster officials, with senior center, eldercare representatives, even your local church, etc. now and get plans A, B and C in place so that they can be implemented quickly. And I'd be careful to actually "walk them through"--but I think I would have more than one plan! And I'd made phone calls regularly to make sure that the plans were still valid (perhaps at 3 month intervals) and adjust them accordingly. You don't want to write the plan, put it in a drawer and find out when you need it that the transport provider you were counting on has gone out of business or that something else has happened to negate the plan.

By the way, when my parents were still alive I know there was a bunch of "paperwork" in the house for emergency--we had ours in plastic sleeves by each phone and by the front door for "grab and go" trips to the hospital, etc. Additionally, each family member had a set. I'd make sure I had these packets--current up to date medical information, copies of "living will" stuff, as appropriate (e.g., do not resussitate orders if appropriate), legal copies of all current prescriptions, copies of medical records, etc. In short, whatever a totally strange doctor would need to do an "on the fly" assessment of the situation, treatment, etc. in emergency. And make sure there is an up-to-date phone list in there as well--patient's doctor(s), dentist, family members, any religious contact information (priest, minister, etc.) if appropriate, etc. This just saves a bunch of time in emergency. They sell the little plastic "sheet protector" sleeves in office supply stores. Make sure you have one for EACH parent and that you clearly indicate who is who. I also think I would invest in "ID bracelets" for each parent with name, address, phone, medical contact information (medic alert necklaces?) so that if for some reason you were separated from them or not available to answer questions, medical personnel could match up each of your parents with the appropriate set of medical paperwork. If their names are John and Mary perhaps you don't need to do that, but if they have ambiguous first names (Leslie, Chris, etc.) and might get their paperwork mixed up, make sure they are labeled as well! One other not so obvious item: if they speak some language other than English (even if they also speak English), note this somewhere because if they aren't very alert, they may not speak English in emergency.... it can save time if someone knows what they probably are speaking....

[thunderchief]

Wind damage alone isnt likely to kill occupants of a well built wood frame house.

[m_ru]

The main problems inland are due to falling trees or poor construction. Trees inland aren't used to constant stress from tropical storms, hurricanes, summer squalls and such. 100 mph wind on a weathered coastline may cause old "experienced" trees to lose limbs and some younger trees may come down, but the chances of older trees and younger trees inland being able to take 100 mph winds are far less because they aren't used to that kind of root and trunk stress. Also, inland trees have a tendency to grow taller and fan outward because every 5 or 10 years they don't have major limbs snapped off. Another thing, alot of people inland don't build with hurricanes on their minds.

If you live in a well built home and don't have any trees in your yard that would go thru your house like a razor if they fell, and you don't have to have electricity for any dire reasons like life support and so on, then save yourself the trouble and don't evacuate.

[vbhoutex]

I think you raise some very good questions. I've wondered about this myself.

Personally, I would like to see someone produce maps after hurricanes that show in color coding how far the storm surge went inland and how far inland the various degrees of destruction went. It doesn't have to be a perfect map, but I think it would help understand what's possible. I think it's always possible for destruction to be greater or lesser than what is shown, which is why you could only use this map as a rule of thumb. We all know that people who survived Camille thought there couldnt' be anything worse than that, and they were wrong. So the danger would be in trusting that these maps are "absolutes" in predicting what will happen in future storms. Maybe Skeetobite would be open to producing historical maps like this for the larger storms that have destructive storm surges, such as Ivan and Katrina.

I'm only a mile from the gulf and along an inlet creek, so I know I'm very vulnerable. Our local mets say that storm surge on this area of the coast would be 18 feet at the most due to topography, and I'm 13 feet above sea level. So at one mile from the inlet, inside several barrier islands, what would a 18 foot storm surge look like inside my house? Would it be five feet? Or would it be a little bit less because there are islands and stuff inbetween me and the gulf? I never seem to be able to get clear answers on this kind of thing and I'd like to understand it better.

I do not have access to the information your local mets do, but one thing to remember is that if you have a slow moving storm your surge, even inland can be higher due to runoff piliing up in waterways because it can not get out due to the surge coming in. There is no way to know for sure how much you might get in your home, but it sounds to me like you need to be ready to leave for anything that could produce a 13 foot or higher surge, especially if your Mom needs those treatments. A car even partially submerged will do you no good if the battery is under water or it is too difficult to get to. I would highly recommend finding out about special needs shelters in your area.

[digitaldahling]

live in W. Mobile, close to University and Airport. All I could think about after reading your post was what Ivan did to Atmore, Camden, Brewton and other towns well north of here. Homes were destroyed there and trees were flattened for many miles north along I-65. We didn't have significant damage where I live (lost all the shingles which was significant enough considering our "wind deductible") but some people did. I've seen different kinds of damage in this area due to Katrina.

It all depends on where the next one makes landfall and what category you're dealing with.

[Ivanhater]

live in W. Mobile, close to University and Airport. All I could think about after reading your post was what Ivan did to Atmore, Camden, Brewton and other towns well north of here. Homes were destroyed there and trees were flattened for many miles north along I-65. We didn't have significant damage where I live (lost all the shingles which was significant enough considering our "wind deductible") but some people did. I've seen different kinds of damage in this area due to Katrina.

It all depends on where the next one makes landfall and what category you're dealing with.

you live right by my campus

[Ziplock]

Your question is an important one. Being a native of south Florida, I was brought up to have great respect for hurricanes, and to know that one MUST get away from the coast because the risk of drowning due to storm surge is so very high.

I also grew up believing that the winds weakened considerably with each five miles inland from the coast. the understanding was that friction fromland reduced the winds, and that the strength of the winds was a direct result of the hurricane's transformation of heat energy in the ocean to kinetic, or wind energy.

Well, every storm teaches us something...and though they share some salient characteristics (heat engine, decrease in central pressure equates to storm strength, unpredictability in general...), each one is also different from the last and from the next storm(s).

What we earned from Andrew in South Dade County in 1992, is that being 20 miles inland was pretty insignificant as far as reduction of wind damage from the coast was concerned. Some even postulated that due to friction effects, some of the winds were WORSE well inland...there was evidence of extreme vorticity, small scale mesocyclones embedded within the eyewall, in some of the most heavily damaged areas such as Naranja Lakes, Florida City, Homestead, and Country Walk.

Extensive analysis of wind damage patterns was conducted...the questions rtaised were whether this extreme damage was caused by eyewall winds alone, or by eyewall winds spawning tornados...

To answer your question...I thought that 20-30 miles inland was plenty safe. I was wrong. Andrew was strengthening at landfall, and the reanalysis indicates that surprisingly, he cntinued to strengthen for some time after the eye had begin to come ashore. He maintained his eyewall structure and intensity as he began to cross the penninsula, though he was a rather smallish storm. Just consider eye(wall) diameter...if the eye was medium sized (15-20 miles wide, as opposed to a small tight hurricane like Charley 2004, which was only about 6-7 miles wide at landfall) and held together at landfall, then you have a minimum inland distance of 15-20 miles that received extreme eyewall winds.

I saw many structures 20 miles inland which were CBS block construction which were completely destroyed. There were poured concrete tiebeams that were ripped off of CBS constructed homes and tossed into neighboring homes. There was some evidence that some of these beams were not properly attached to the walls, however. Damage from wind was estimated to have been produced by gusts over 200mph.

Roof failures were near 100% in some areas, and were 100% of gable end roofs, hip roofs, flat roofs, in other areas.

Can the winds "get" you if you are 20 miles inland? Yes. You ask about 30 miles...most development in Dade County is within 20 miles of the coast...go 30 miles west, and you are in the Everglades, so very little sturdy construction to be tested there. Damage to native trees was extensive, though.

So, does ten miles make a difference? Yes. Ten miles North of the northern eyewall made all the difference to residents of Miami who were spared the extreme winds. One could drive south from downtown miami, and observe moderate damage (N od eyewall), but the "line" that demarcated the extent of the N eyewall winds was plain as day...right at SW 88th street, Kendall drive, you began too see roof failure, trees totally stripped of ALL leaves and ALL small branches, nothing but a trunk and a primary branch remaining (and of these branches still attached, many showed that they had been violently twisted by the winds, and would soon succumb to the stress). There was a difference in damage from one side of the road to the other!!

Just a few blocks south of SW 88th Street, one began to see cars and trucks tossed like toys, roof and wall failure of homes, townhomes, small businesses; failure of roofs and exterior walls of large buildings like the Holiday Inn at Cuter Ridge. Total collapse of churches, car dealerships, shopping malls, and other large structures.

The intensity (especially whether the strongest winds are making it to the surface, as in a strengthening hurricane) and forward speed of the storm at landfall, coupled with the structure and size of the eyewall along with local topography, will determine the strength of surface winds inland.

Other factors to be considered in the amount of potential damage are the direction from which the area under consideration receives eyewall winds; and whether these winds are coming in off the ocean, or are off the land. This has to do with the path of the storm, the orientation of the coastline, and the location in question.

Getting winds from one direction for a long time may or may not be more damaging than getting the center of the eye and a short calm before the direction changes to the opposite side.

I know many people who took Andrew's N eyewall and had the East side of their homes utterly destroyed, but sustained no damage on the west side. Many folks feared that the eye was passing over them (listening to Brian Norcross explain that the extreme winds were from the eyewall) and that eventually the winds would come out of the other direction, and knowing that their precarious shelter would collapse if that happened.

Well, if you lived btw 88th Street and 160th street, that did not happen...the winds did not blow hard from the west, b/c those areas were in the N eyewall.

As for the "dirty" vs. "weak" side of the storm...one would think that those folks that got the Southern eyewall would have experienced less severe conditions...if that was the case, you couldn't prove it by the destruction in Florida City and Homestead, where the winds were more out of the West, since destruction was catastrophic here as well. The Homestead Airforce base was utterly destroyed. So, in a compact, strengthening Cat 5 (Andrew was upgraded to a 5 almost a decade later), inland friction over flat terrain near sea level didn't do much to weaken the eyewall wind effects.

I sympathize very much with you dilemna about whether to evac or not. Our local plans now call for "shelter in place" as long as one is not in a surge risk area. Officials know that evacuation a long penninsula like Florida is a huge problem...one cannot be certain of track, and it is entirely possible to evac right into the path of the storm. In Florida, it isn't as if you ony need to go 50 to 100 miles inland...you pretty much need to get out of the state...there is no way we could all evacuate. Think of the panic of a Cat 4 or 5 storm forcast to hit Miami, but begins to track a bit more north, a bit more north...millions more people would be joining an evac, with limited fuel and shelter...

There were deaths in Andrew due to wind. In fact, my neighbor was killed by a 2 x 4 that went through the window opening and through the mattress he was trying to hold up to the window... Thankfully, most people survived the destuction of their homes. It seems to me a miracle that more people did not die, given the extraordinary violence of the storm, they incredible flying debris...

Sorry this is so long. Good luck with your decision making process. It is not easy when you have to be responsible for other lives than your own. I tend to think that being 30 miles inland, you may be safer sheltering at home than trying to move your folks. It takes an extreme storm to do what Andrew did that far inland. IT CAN, and DID happen. And will happen again...somewhere. Even though there werefailures of VERY strong structures, the damage was more consistant with quality of construction and hurricane preparation. Homes with adequate shutters were much less likely to sustain major damage than unprotected homes.

Have you been looking at the Hurricane Prep foum? Do you have shutters for all openings in the home? Any reinforcement for the roof? Hurricane straps for attaching the roof to the walls? Extra bracing for the roof trusses? (If you have trusses). Is there an interior "safe" room?

Well, now I've gotten myself all worked up...gotta start prepping for possible Rita...and I just yesterday got the rest of my stuff out of the Ziplock bags from Katrina.

Zip (lock)

[beachbum_al]

Jes,
I live on the other side of Mobile across the Bay. We lived in Fairhope when Hurricane Frederic came through. The main thing I remember was trees that had fallen on houses. And these were not small trees either. Those big oak trees that you see in Fairhope down near the Bay. I remember the power being out for a long time but maybe that was because it was the 70s and times have changed now. Maybe Not! But I think of areas like Auburn, Montgomery, Atmore, etc that have gotten hit by storms like Opal, Frederic, Ivan, etc. One of my friends at college had a tree go through her apartment at Auburn during Opal. I heard stories from neighbors who left Fairhope to get away from Frederic and the storm follow them up toward Montgomery. And the destruction that Ivan did to towns like Atmore. And Dennis did a lot of damage in Pace/Milton. All of these areas inland.