Hurricane Watch FL Keys

[chris_fit]

Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 3

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 18, 2005


...Depression organizing as it nears the Bahamas...
...Hurricane Watch issued for the Florida Keys...

At 11 am EDT...1500z...a Hurricane Watch is issued for all of the
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef southward and westward to Dry
Tortugas...including Florida Bay.


A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the northwest Bahamas.


A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.


A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos
Islands...and for the southeast and central Bahamas. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.


Interests elsewhere in South Florida...as well as central and
western Cuba...should closely monitor the progress of this
system.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen
was located near latitude 22.0 north... longitude 72.2 west or
about 390 miles... 625 km... east-southeast of Nassau.


The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph... 19 km/hr. A
general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during
the next 24 hours. On this track...this system will be moving over
the eastern and central Bahamas later today and tonight.


Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast... and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.


Repeating the 11 am EDT position...22.0 N... 72.2 W. Movement
toward...west near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
EDT.


Forecaster Knabb

[skysummit]

I wonder if WDSU, Channel 6, even knows yet since they were still calling it an area of T-Storms late last night.

[x-y-no]

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen
was located near latitude 22.0 north... longitude 72.2 west or
about 390 miles... 625 km... east-southeast of Nassau.

It sure looks to me like the center is north of that, maybe more like 22.3N

Guess it doesn't make a huge difference, though.

[wzrgirl1]

My guess is that hurricane watches may be extended north to miami-dade

[tracyswfla]

My guess is that hurricane watches may be extended north to miami-dade

IMO, more than likely!

[Scorpion]

Miami and points south seem to be getting all the action this year in FL.

[wzrgirl1]

Miami and points south seem to be getting all the action this year in FL.

I would trade with you anyday

[Scorpion]

Lol no its ok after Frances and Jeanne last year heck no.

[chris_fit]

now on cnn.com as breaking news as well.

[Scorpion]

Lol its breaking news on CNN. This is going to be so hyped up.

[LAwxrgal]

When are the Keys going to start evacs? Should be soon I would imagine.

[JPmia]

I would think those watches would have been given to us by now considering they were for the keys. Otherwise, they could be issuing the watches now for preps to evacuate the keys. If I remember right it takes about 48-72 hours to evacuate the entire island chain.

[Recurve]

I just talked to Monroe County EOC.

They are setting up the EO center now. Billy Wagner and them are starting a conference call with the state managers.

A staffer told me there could be tourist evactuations "as early as today" but nothing has been ordered yet. I don't have the plan in front of me so I can't say whether hurricane watch triggers that automatically. Any warning will I'm sure.

I'll add updates to this or the main thread as I get them.

[Scorpion]

Imagine if there was a voluntary evac and the TD dissipated.

[Canelaw99]

My guess is that hurricane watches may be extended north to miami-dade

I was kind of surprised to see that the watches were issued only for Monroe County. The Bahamas have watches throughout the northern islands, well north of us. *shrugs* Guess they know what they're doing

[jlauderdal]

I just talked to Monroe County EOC.

They are setting up the EO center now. Billy Wagner and them are starting a conference call with the state managers.

A staffer told me there could be tourist evactuations "as early as today" but nothing has been ordered yet. I don't have the plan in front of me so I can't say whether hurricane watch triggers that automatically. Any warning will I'm sure.

I'll add updates to this or the main thread as I get them.

I will be shocked if more than a few residents split.

[wxmann_91]

My guess is that hurricane watches may be extended north to miami-dade

I was kind of surprised to see that the watches were issued only for Monroe County. The Bahamas have watches throughout the northern islands, well north of us. *shrugs* Guess they know what they're doing

This is what the NHC usually does, in Katrina they issued hurricane watches for the greater New Orleans area and one advisory later, the rest of the Gulf coast from Intracoastal City to the FL/AL border. They issue hurricane watches for vulnerable areas such as the FL Keys first to make sure these areas get a head start on evacuations and preparations, and then other areas. I have no idea why they do that though.

[Canelaw99]

Makes sense wx....although, I tend to pay attention to Monroe County because I'm only about 19 miles from Ocean Reef - closer than I am to downtown Miami LOL Will definitely be filling up the car and picking up some ice today though

[KatDaddy]

You guys in S FLA better starting preparing in case soon to be Rita is relocated further N as the TPC 11AM Disc indicates

......HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR COULD BE FORCING SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER FARTHER NORTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND IN FACT IT COULD ALREADY BE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE ADVISORY
POSITION......

Also it looks like its on its way to rapidy intensification. Light shear, warm waters, banding increasing, and perfect outflow in all quads beginning. Just check out the latest time lapse to see the outflow beginning.

[Recurve]

The predicted track is far south of Dade County.

Keys residents won't evacuate yet -- but people in trailers might have to get out.

The lower Keys have good memories of bad Georges. Lots of diehards learned the lesson.

Might seem overly cautious now, but if this thing intensifies a little too much and goes a little too far north, people will be asking why we didn't leave now.