AFD NWS Brownsville 9/18/05 3:30PM

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
330 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2005

.DISCUSSION...500MB RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COASTLINE WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS PRODUCING DRY
AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY FOR
MOISTURE INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MAV
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS SLIGHTLY TOO WARM FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND
SLIGHTLY TOO COOL FOR HIGHS TUESDAY SO WILL ADJUST MOS MAX TEMP
NUMBERS SLIGHTLY.

ALL EYES TURN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL STORM
RITA ENTERS THE SOUTHEAST GULF TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HURRICANE AS
FORECASTED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE TRACK BRINGS RITA
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WITH THAT MOISTURE SHOULD BE
LIMITED ACROSS SOUTH TX ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. PER
COORDINATION CALL WITH WFO KCRP...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS
AND WINDS BASED ON A POSSIBLE LANDFALL ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST
SATURDAY MORNING.