My take on rita..

[hicksta]

Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



The models have been flip flopping back and forth today. Althought i want to see these new GFDL and GFS before i post this i need to study. But this is my take on the storm. Cat 4/3 sun morn near this location

[jasons2k]

That's the closest map I've seen to my own thinking.

[canegrl04]

WOW. Another NO hit

[gatorcane]

it appears the center is trying to relocate even farther north under the deep convection about 75 mph north of the 5pm NHC guidance. If this holds then the track will be shifted more right for the next 24-36 hours which will take it right into the upper FL Keys or extreme S. Florida

[SamSagnella]

I think his forecast is actually the little push-pin icons, not any of the colored lines (model scenarios).

[wxwonder12]

What are the yellow and blue line models, they seem way far north then I have seen yet for this system??

[gatorcane]

one of them is the LBAR...it's on crack.

[canegrl04]

I think the blue and the yellow are smoking the same chemical agent

[ROCK]

it appears the center is trying to relocate even farther north under the deep convection about 75 mph north of the 5pm NHC guidance. If this holds then the track will be shifted more right for the next 24-36 hours which will take it right into the upper FL Keys or extreme S. Florida

I agree BC.... I'm thinking possibly extreme SFL as well from the west....

[ROCK]

it appears the center is trying to relocate even farther north under the deep convection about 75 mph north of the 5pm NHC guidance. If this holds then the track will be shifted more right for the next 24-36 hours which will take it right into the upper FL Keys or extreme S. Florida

I agree BC.... I'm thinking possibly extreme SFL as well from the west....

[Myersgirl]

There seems to be some confusion with your graphics, please specify your forecast and explain other lines on the graphic

[hicksta]

Pin points is the center. Black lines are the Outliners. and the other colors are the current models. BAMM LBAR and the other useless ones =/

[Stratosphere747]

The other lines are the latest models..

The thumb-tacks are his...

[hicksta]

First time using this program.. Cant find any better one for less

[Myersgirl]

no problem, just needed to knoww how to read it

[hurricanefloyd5]

one of them is the LBAR...it's on crack.

well it's on something!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[skysummit]

Looking at WV, I believe there may be a chance for it to ride the east coast. The high is dominating the gulf right now. Could it find a weakness on eastern extent of the gulf high and head north? Any word on what this gulf high is forecaseted to do?

[gatorcane]

Looking at WV, I believe there may be a chance for it to ride the east coast. The high is dominating the gulf right now. Could it find a weakness on eastern extent of the gulf high and head north? Any word on what this gulf high is forecaseted to do?

Bingo. The NW movement over the last couple of hours is due to this "weakness" and relocation of the center. The ridge is a little farther west of it (as evident of the dry flow over FL in the WV loop). So it may just be able to move NW similar to Katrina until it gets far enough west to feel the effects of the ridge...then a bend to the W and even WSW...it looks like all of this will be about 50-75 miles south of the Katrina path though.

[hicksta]

I doubt it bro.

[skysummit]

I doubt it bro.

....and why? Please explain your thoughts.