New GFDL will blow your mind

[DESTRUCTION5]

With a hit in LA as a Cat 4

[Ivanhater]

central lousiana at that, big jump north

[HollynLA]

This literally makes me sick to my stomach.

Why such the big jump north? They said on our news this am that the broad high pressure system will protect us. What is this model picking up on the make LA a landfall prediction (at this time).

[canegrl04]

Well I hope to heaven its dead wrong

[Ivanhater]

This literally makes me sick to my stomach.

Why such the big jump north? They said on our news this am that the broad high pressure system will protect us. What is this model picking up on the make LA a landfall prediction (at this time).

holly, right now this can go anywhere, the models are seeing a weakness in the ridge at sometime, nhc talks about recurvature in the disco, question , as always, is when and where

[drezee]

link to graphics please!!!!!

[cycloneye]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM RITA 18L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 22.5 74.0 280./ 8.0
6 22.8 74.6 292./ 5.8
12 23.2 75.3 301./ 8.5
18 23.6 76.3 292./ 9.3
24 23.9 77.4 287./10.8
30 24.2 78.7 282./12.6
36 24.4 79.9 281./10.5
42 24.5 80.9 272./ 9.6
48 24.6 82.0 277./ 9.7
54 24.9 83.0 287./ 9.9
60 25.2 84.0 284./ 9.3
66 25.3 85.0 279./ 9.0
72 25.4 85.9 277./ 8.0
78 25.7 86.8 286./ 9.0
84 26.0 87.7 288./ 8.9
90 26.4 88.6 297./ 8.8
96 27.0 89.5 300./10.0
102 27.8 90.5 313./11.8
108 28.8 91.3 319./11.8
114 29.7 91.9 327./10.9
120 30.7 92.6 325./10.9
126 31.8 93.0 339./11.6

[SkeetoBite]

link to graphics please!!!!!

Rita

[zoeyann]

Holly that is making me ill too, but nothing is set in stone so lets just prepare and pray. Certainly think about where you could evacuate to just in case because options will be limited to say the least.

[skysummit]

What are these models seeing that will cause a weakness? I still do not see a trough digging down looking at WV. That high looks really strong still this morning.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This GFDL would put NO back under water and if it comes in at a 4 like i think its going to....Good night irene...All this being with NO in the East side of the storm...

[HollynLA]

Zoey
You're right, and I usually don't even like to pay much attention to the models and tracks until 72 hours out but I guess after Katrina, I can't help it. I've said now for over a week, what would we do if a storm headed for the Baton Rouge area where so many evacuees already are? This would also put NOLA on the eastern side and we all know what that could mean.

I guess we're all just jumpy now thinking about the possibilities.

[skysummit]

Zoey
You're right, and I usually don't even like to pay much attention to the models and tracks until 72 hours out but I guess after Katrina, I can't help it. I've said now for over a week, what would we do if a storm headed for the Baton Rouge area where so many evacuees already are? This would also put NOLA on the eastern side and we all know what that could mean.

I guess we're all just jumpy now thinking about the possibilities.

We would have to evacuate to Green Bay.

[canegrl04]

Thetre won't be any NO for the 180,000 proposed to go back to if Rita copies Katrina.They patched the levees but they say the levees are still weak.

[weatherwoman]

look how far away it is it will change a million times, dont get worried yet just get ready, look how the O storm was going into florida and then ga then sc then nc it stayed on us along time but never did what was predicted

[Lori]

Zoey
You're right, and I usually don't even like to pay much attention to the models and tracks until 72 hours out but I guess after Katrina, I can't help it. I've said now for over a week, what would we do if a storm headed for the Baton Rouge area where so many evacuees already are? This would also put NOLA on the eastern side and we all know what that could mean.

I guess we're all just jumpy now thinking about the possibilities.

We would have to evacuate to Green Bay.

Remember mvtrucking suggested yesterday to make reservations in Monroe? Like he said you can always cancel if things change.

[jes]

So when will the NHC move East? With Katrina did the GFDL do better than the NHC. I know they will move East, but maybe not quite so far ---l just can't see them moving all the way from TX/MX border to NO.

[Wpwxguy]

I just went 17 days without power, I think if that were to happen I would be gone on a permanent vacation. Don't think I'll be back... There's still time, but I am really nervous about the possibility that we could be hit again here in SE LA. It would be terrible.

[HollynLA]

You're right, the NHC will not make huge jumps in the forecast track. Notice how they slowly nudged it towards NOLA for Katrina when it was originally east of Panama City,FL.

Bottom line is, I don't feel they have a good hold on this storm, mainly because it's still 5+ days out, so we all need to watch and prepare. Unfortunately for LA, it's hard to prepare when the stores are already bare. I will not stay for another one.

[dwg71]

So when will the NHC move East? With Katrina did the GFDL do better than the NHC. I know they will move East, but maybe not quite so far ---l just can't see them moving all the way from TX/MX border to NO.

I'm going to sit back and watch the NHC, they do a pretty good job of this. I dont see them switching North. If anything, I think they will move it south, at least in the short term. It appears to be heading due West or slightly south of that.