Looks like EPAC portion of wave may develop instead of BOC

[Derecho]

Which is pretty interesting because development THAT far east in the EPAC (south of Guatemala and El Salvador) is pretty rare.

It's mentioned in the latest NHC Eastpac TWO.

It's a bit of a satellite no-mans land but the huge amounts of convection (and possibly incipient spin) can be seen at a zoom loop at

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

Unfortunately that field is about an hour delayed.

Some Easterly Shear, however, being on the S side of the anticylcone.

It's possible, and has happened, for Africa Waves to split and BOTH ends develop, one in the EPAC and one in the Atlantic, but this EPAC business is so close to the BOC that I think it's got to be one or the other.

I haven't had time to look at the 12Z models but previously some models have shown a little development for this.

These sorts of EPAC developments are interesting because they're the only ones with the microscopic chance of crossing the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and becoming an EPAC-ATL crosser. Requires a trough at precisely the right time which is why it almost never happens.

[Aquawind]

The floater 2 at TPC is covering Blanca as well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I agree BOC unlikely at this point.

[Anonymous]

If one of the two parts of the wave develops, it will almost surely be the EPAC. The EPAC system does not have to deal with a shortwave or westerly shear like the BOC system does. Plus it's already got the leading start with its mammoth size.

[Colin]

Hmmm... this is quite interesting and will be fun to keep up with the updates here! Sure does look like the EPAC portion of the wave has a way better chance of developing than the BOC wave... but it is definitley something to keep an eye on!

[ColdFront77]

Better than nothing to watch at all. EPAC to Gulf of Mexico crossovers are possible and we still have a reason to mention the Bay of Campeche/Gulf of Mexico activity as it is there. If only for the high upper level wind shear in the western Atlantic Basin.

[Derecho]

Based on the large convective fart at the center of the BOC low in the last 1/2 hour (which seems a bit more defined in the low cloud fields) it may still "win."

Actually, the two, RIGHT NOW, are somewhat distant enough that both may develop some initially...depends on whether the EPAC thing goes W or NW.

It's remarkably difficult IDing which one will win when you have two development areas near each other....it often seems to fllp-flop.

[Rainband]

Based on the large convective fart at the center of the BOC low in the last 1/2 hour (which seems a bit more defined in the low cloud fields) it may still "win."

Actually, the two, RIGHT NOW, are somewhat distant enough that both may develop some initially...depends on whether the EPAC thing goes W or NW.

It's remarkably difficult IDing which one will win when you have two development areas near each other....it often seems to fllp-flop.

So it hasn't been absorbed by the SW????

[vbhoutex]

No not yet. The latest sat images do show it coming under increasing influence from the SW and trough. It has begun to move to the N or NNW and will probably be absorbed by the SW within 36 hrs IMO and dump way too much water on the already sodden SE. Keep those oars handy folks!!

[Colin]

Yeah... make sure to have your swimming supplies ready, sure looks like this one will cause massive rainfall on the soaked Southeast! :o Stay safe guys down there, and DO NOT float away!