Could Rita reach 175 mph

[f5]

she has plenty of warm water ahead of her also plenty of time for a couple of eyewall replacement cycles?

[mtm4319]

Less than 1% chance.

(500th post! )

[jkt21787]

No.

[skysummit]

Nope...I say she tops out at 145mph and makes landfall at 135mph.

[Scorpion]

Certainly. I remember people saying Emily would be nothing just because Dennis was in similar waters a week before.

[canegrl04]

Probably no stronger than 150mph .But thats strong enough. A Houston hit would be awful even for folks living as far north as Dallas

[ConvergenceZone]

she has plenty of warm water ahead of her also plenty of time for a couple of eyewall replacement cycles?

Not even REMOTELY close. More dry air in the gulf than there was for Katrina...

[Scorpion]

she has plenty of warm water ahead of her also plenty of time for a couple of eyewall replacement cycles?

Not even REMOTELY close. More dry air in the gulf than their was for Katrina...

I think you need the . The NHC already thinks this has a very good possibility of reaching Cat 4. They said the same with Katrina after it emerged from Florida.

[deltadog03]

im gonna go on a limb and say VERY possible

[Scorpion]

Best waters in the GOM.

[cjrciadt]

The GOM can support it? Yes
Will it happen? Guessing NO
Will it reach Cat4 strength? Without a doubt.

[Lowpressure]

I would suggest being careful when limiting the strength of Rita. She will have just about everything in her favor, again. I hope the no's don't eat crow next week for those whom are in the landfall zones' sake.

I agree with the 145-150 with 135 at landfall.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm not too sure why people think that just because Katrina got incredibly strong, it means that this cane will as well...The NHC as well as the Tropical update earlier both mentioned the dry air in the gulf being the only thing from allowing it to get too strong.... I'm not too sure why people are discounting this. Yes, it will get strong, and probably stronger than currently forecasted, but Katrina is a rarity getting as strong as she did and as the NHC said several times, conditions had to be absolutely PERFECT, which they were for that to happen...

[ConvergenceZone]

she has plenty of warm water ahead of her also plenty of time for a couple of eyewall replacement cycles?

Not even REMOTELY close. More dry air in the gulf than their was for Katrina...

I think you need the . The NHC already thinks this has a very good possibility of reaching Cat 4. They said the same with Katrina after it emerged from Florida.

Oh so, a cat 4 is 175 mph huh? hmmm, guess I need to go learn the chart again. Might as well make it 200 mph while we are at it.

[mtm4319]

I'm not too sure why people think that just because Katrina got incredibly strong, it means that this cane will as well...The NHC as well as the Tropical update earlier both mentioned the dry air in the gulf being the only thing from allowing it to get too strong.... I'm not too sure why people are discounting this. Yes, it will get strong, and probably stronger than currently forecasted, but Katrina is a rarity getting as strong as she did and as the NHC said several times, conditions had to be absolutely PERFECT, which they were for that to happen...

Yeah, I'm seeing this in the "lowest pressure" poll. Some people might have Katrina in mind and are trying to compare Rita to it, not knowing/remembering that Katrina was a once-in-a-generation hurricane. I'm not saying it can't happen again, but it's really, really unlikely.

[Lowpressure]

I think any reasonable estimate is maxed out at 145-150. With 925-930 mb. Of course it can be worse, but I think Katrina was a rarity. Let us keep this in perspective, 145 coming in anywhere is catastrophic, recall Katrinas landfall intensity.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm not too sure why people think that just because Katrina got incredibly strong, it means that this cane will as well...The NHC as well as the Tropical update earlier both mentioned the dry air in the gulf being the only thing from allowing it to get too strong.... I'm not too sure why people are discounting this. Yes, it will get strong, and probably stronger than currently forecasted, but Katrina is a rarity getting as strong as she did and as the NHC said several times, conditions had to be absolutely PERFECT, which they were for that to happen...

Yeah, I'm seeing this in the "lowest pressure" poll. Some people might have Katrina in mind and are trying to compare Rita to it, not knowing/remembering that Katrina was a once-in-a-generation hurricane. I'm not saying it can't happen again, but it's really, really unlikely.

EXACTLY. and perhaps people could be right about the Cat 4, but there is quite a bit of difference between that and 175 mph. Remember, just because Katrina didn't, doesn't mean Rita will.

[Scorpion]

Look, we are in a very active cycle. NOBODY thought Emily would hit 135 kts in the same stretch of water as Dennis just a week earlier. Rita will be hitting a stretch of untouched GOM water. An anticyclone is forecast to develop over it. NOBODY thought Katrina would hit Cat 5 strength after emerging from FL.

[smashmode]

she has plenty of warm water ahead of her also plenty of time for a couple of eyewall replacement cycles?

she does have some warm water ahead..but 175?

[ConvergenceZone]

Look, we are in a very active cycle. NOBODY thought Emily would hit 135 kts in the same stretch of water as Dennis just a week earlier. Rita will be hitting a stretch of untouched GOM water. An anticyclone is forecast to develop over it. NOBODY thought Katrina would hit Cat 5 strength after emerging from FL.

Scorpion,
Tou are right that it's an active time and what not, but don't ya think 175 is a bit of a stretch?? I know you aren't one of them, but sometimes -removed- gets the better of people's predictions.