Now, I don't wanna be rude or anything, but I have to bring up a post I made while TS Irene was in progress, just so that people may learn a lesson in the future:
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To those who think this season could be 9/3/2 or similar....
I also wonder if Cindy will posthumously be upgraded to a hurricane. However, just because so far a vast majority of the TS's this year have failed to become hurricanes but have come close, don't assume that every one will fail. I think with all of these storms reaching 65-70 mph, if anything I only stand and wonder how many may form once we hit the peak and reach the (almost) completely favorable MJO.
The fact that we got 2 major hurricanes in July during a brief favorable MJO, and that during the at least mostly unfavorable MJO we still have had 3 storms almost become hurricanes (and there's still a chance Irene could become a hurricane), I think it's only a matter of time before we start seeing a parade of hurricanes.
Maybe Irene will fail to become a hurricane and, if TD #10 becomes a storm, Jose might fail too if he's sheared badly, making the numbers 10/2/2. But if Katrina forms during more favorable conditions in the same area a little later, I would expect her to intensify, and several others to follow suit.
I'll say it, I think we may have potentially four to five hurricanes in a row soon. Kinda reminds of 2001 in that essence. Barry, Chantal, and Dean all got that close as well in August, yet failed to become hurricanes. All of a sudden, Erin, Felix, Gabrielle, Humberto, and Iris were all hurricanes, three of them major.
But back to Irene. I still think she might become a hurricane tomorrow, but if she doesn't look any better, she won't have a chance.
-Andrew92
In another post, I said (and little did I know that I would nail this too):
I wonder if our numbers in a few weeks might be:
15/7/4
At that time, Irene was still not quite a hurricane, so our numbers were still 9/2/2. Here is the full post.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 001#999983
Again, I don't want to be rude at all to anybody. However, whenever we see several systems somewhat early come very close to being a hurricane but not quite, I will always look back to 2001 and now 2005 and see if we may have several hurricanes in a row.
I just hope this is a future lesson for people who downplay a season in early August just because the numbers are 8/2/2 or "seem" low when in fact they are not, or the ones that don't become hurricanes come darn close to hurricane intensity.
-Andrew92
