Tropical weather outlook 5:30 PM TPC is more prodevelopment

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... lantic.htm

It has to stay put in the BOC to have a chance but if it moves NW or north it is toast.

[Rainband]

I thought it already became part of the SW???

[OtherHD]

I posted this on TWC but my posts are being moderated...I got this message:

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Anyway, I'm still skeptical about development...I still remember that huge let-down on Saturday.

[chadtm80]

hehe... Big brother is always watching... Must of know you were a storm2k member.. hehe

[Steve H.]

Disturbance may surprise us/may not. But it is firing strong convection to its SE, and if this can wrap, it may be something to deal with in the NE GOM. One thing to consider. If it develops and "goes with the flow" it can still maintain its identity. That is, it won't be fighting the SW flow, but move swiftly with it. That would bring heavy rains and gusty winds to the NE GOM. Let's also watch how quickly the SW moves to the NE. Something to watch anyhow. Cheers!!

[Anonymous]

Since conditions have not yet become completely hostile, I'm not all that surprised we're seeing some organization. However, I still don't expect any tropical development. Convection remains scattered and limited, plus satellite imagery shows it's already being affected by the shortwave. It will probably be absorbed sometime within the next 48 hours.

[JetMaxx]

Gimme a break....TWC has become nothing but a bunch of friggin COMMUNISTS!!

I'm totally ashamed they are located in my wonderful home state of
Georgia

[OtherHD]

lol don't mind the TWC thing. It's not a big deal.

I think most of the convection is occurring through diurnal activity. Don't be shocked to find ourselves back to Square One by morning.

[Aquawind]

It's like that mouse you mentioned earlier cycloneye. The mouse is in the trap and it's barely breathing. However it's still eating the cheese hoping to get strong enough to lift the metal spring bar and run off to the NE with it's tail between it's legs. :38:

[GulfBreezer]

Disturbance may surprise us/may not. But it is firing strong convection to its SE, and if this can wrap, it may be something to deal with in the NE GOM. One thing to consider. If it develops and "goes with the flow" it can still maintain its identity. That is, it won't be fighting the SW flow, but move swiftly with it. That would bring heavy rains and gusty winds to the NE GOM. Let's also watch how quickly the SW moves to the NE. Something to watch anyhow. Cheers!!

That is exactly what I am seeing to the SE coming off the tip......convection is firing like a madman and our persistent little swirl in the BOC sure wants to do something. Watching it reminds me of watching a toddler learning to walk, struggle, struggle, STEP.........

[rainstorm]

i dont think this will do much

[Stormsfury]

The area is a broad area of low pressure - around 1009 mb and oriented in a north-south fashion ... SW shear is occurring on the northern side of the system ATT and the GOM is covered in a diffleunt upper flow (induced by the upper low/trough in Arkansas) ... which, in fact, may be part of the reason of the intense flare-up in the SE BOC ... Water vapor imagery is showing SSW winds aloft over the system (though fairly light), but the further north you go, the stronger the upper-winds become ...

Bottom line is the more organized the system tries to become in the short-term, the more likely it'll be pulled northward and not influenced by the lower-level wind-field (and into an less favorable environment)... so the chances are still fairly slim but there, nonetheless ...

[southerngale]

Maybe if that northward motion that's expected doesn't occur...

They don't always go where they think they will when they think they will.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2003

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING...BUT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
TO OCCUR. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW
NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN LATER TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART