ukmet joins gfs in northern shift

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Ivanhater
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ukmet joins gfs in northern shift

#1 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 20, 2005 11:49 am

gfs earlier was south of gfdl now it has it north of gfdl around galveston


ukmet has moved to mid texas , was in south texas before
Last edited by Ivanhater on Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 11:52 am

good "eyes" ivanhater...lol...here is the 12z run...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_114m.gif
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Re: Gfs shiftes north of gfdl

#3 Postby dwg71 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 11:52 am

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Re: Gfs shiftes north of gfdl

#4 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 20, 2005 11:54 am

dwg71 wrote:deleted post


wrong, earlier gfs was mid texas coast
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#5 Postby jes » Tue Sep 20, 2005 11:54 am

Ivanhater,
Is there anyway at all this storm could shift further East than La? Are we pretty much in the clear now? I know anything can happen --- but I mean are we like 99% in the clear.
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#6 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 20, 2005 11:55 am

GFS has been atrocious this year and last with the strength of the ridge. I'd give it the weight it deserves, ZERO
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#7 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 20, 2005 11:57 am

jes wrote:Ivanhater,
Is there anyway at all this storm could shift further East than La? Are we pretty much in the clear now? I know anything can happen --- but I mean are we like 99% in the clear.


well you never know, crazy things happen like with katrina but chances are it wont hit us directly
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#8 Postby jax » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:02 pm

ivanhater wrote:
jes wrote:Ivanhater,
Is there anyway at all this storm could shift further East than La? Are we pretty much in the clear now? I know anything can happen --- but I mean are we like 99% in the clear.


well you never know, crazy things happen like with katrina but chances are it wont hit us directly


it's about the forward speed... if she slows down (not likely) to under
8mph... then all bets are off...
the faster her forward progress is the more west she will go.
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#9 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:05 pm

jax wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
jes wrote:Ivanhater,
Is there anyway at all this storm could shift further East than La? Are we pretty much in the clear now? I know anything can happen --- but I mean are we like 99% in the clear.


well you never know, crazy things happen like with katrina but chances are it wont hit us directly


it's about the forward speed... if she slows down (not likely) to under
8mph... then all bets are off...
the faster her forward progress is the more west she will go.
About to make a close post like that. Katrina moved very slowly until a trough picked her up. Now with Rita moving very fast the ridge forces her farther west until the ridge breaks down then moving W.
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#10 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:08 pm

She is halling butt rate now! Reminds me of Andrew (not intensity) but how fast he accelerated under the ridge!
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#11 Postby raynpa » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:17 pm

Yes and Andrew made a north turn before it was suppose to, no hurricane in history that has passed through the keys this late in the season and hit Texas.
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#12 Postby skysummit » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:22 pm

raynpa wrote:Yes and Andrew made a north turn before it was suppose to, no hurricane in history that has passed through the keys this late in the season and hit Texas.


Didn't Andrew have a little help pulling him up north? I don't see that help with Rita. Anyone have links to old models for Andrew?
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#13 Postby Angferba » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:25 pm

raynpa wrote:Yes and Andrew made a north turn before it was suppose to, no hurricane in history that has passed through the keys this late in the season and hit Texas.


True, but, this season has so far ignored the historical data.
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