Bam joins Ukmet and gfs in northern shift

[Ivanhater]

ukmet now near nhc track, before it was well south near south texas

[deltadog03]

yes, the ukmet has shifted north...its near the NHC track...

[skysummit]

Well at least they seem to be coming to a consensus.

[dwg71]

ukmet now near nhc track, before it was well south near south texas

You forgot to mention the GFDL's southern shift. Also, forgot to mention that latest recon fix is 23.77N but NHC has it at 23.9N. So the ridge is not allowing Rita to gain any lattitude. Combine that with her forward speed and you get a track further south.

You have to look at the full picture.

[raynpa]

dwg where do you live?

[Brent]

I think they are going to come back south... she is moving quickly and STRAIGHT west right now.

[jkt21787]

dwg where do you live?

He's not doing what you may think he's doing. He is being realistic.

And I agree, a track further south is quite possible. The model consensus will very possibly come a bit south, at the least, in the next day or two. This will still be a TX storm, but not an Upper Texas storm.

And you can't accuse me of anything!

[southerngale]

ukmet now near nhc track, before it was well south near south texas

You forgot to mention the GFDL's southern shift. Also, forgot to mention that latest recon fix is 23.77N but NHC has it at 23.9N. So the ridge is not allowing Rita to gain any lattitude. Combine that with her forward speed and you get a track further south.

You have to look at the full picture.

Perhaps because this thread was about the northern shift in the UKMET, closer to NHC track? Just a hunch....

[raynpa]

I was just wondering since he is being so aggressive about the west movement.

[dwg71]

dwg where do you live?

He's not doing what you may think he's doing. He is being realistic.

And I agree, a track further south is quite possible. The model consensus will very possibly come a bit south, at the least, in the next day or two. This will still be a TX storm, but not an Upper Texas storm.

And you can't accuse me of anything!

thanks JKT, I'm just looking at facts and trying, like everyone else, to get a read on what's going to happen. A fast moving storm with slow moving HP ridge = South Texas. Right now that's what I see. Each of the last three recon fixes have been slightly more south each time. That can change.

[dwg71]

The EURO joins the GFDL southern shift....

[skysummit]

and you can see the radar imagery is actually south of the forecast points too.

[tw861]

I was just wondering since he is being so aggressive about the west movement.

I think he lives in the Houston area, but not sure. What he's doing is reverse -removed-. Looking at the latest visible loop, with the track forecast postions overlayed. It looks like that "eye feature" is moving right on track or just a little north and appears to be moving a little north of due west.

I think when it's all said and done here, you have to admit that the NHC has done a pretty good job this year and when they begin to pinpoint an area they are usually darn close in the end. And no matter what I or dwg or any other of the amatuers around here think, in the end I'm going to stick with what the pros say.

The bottom line is it's way to early in the game for anyone whether you live in Houston or Memphis or wherever to be calling the all clear especially when you are dealing with such a large metro area such has Houston.

Now flame away

[deltadog03]

Ok, 12Z EURO has shifted slightly north as well!!!!! NORTH..its now right around galveston.....

[jkt21787]

Ok, 12Z EURO has shifted slightly north as well!!!!! NORTH..its now right around galveston.....

There's another thread on this, and actually this is a SOUTH shift.

Yes, Perry confirms this is 75 miles SW or so of previous position.

[jkt21787]

It looks like that "eye feature" is moving right on track or just a little north and appears to be moving a little north of due west.

No flaming here, but look at skysummit's radar image right above your post. Its south of NHC's points and still moving nearly due west with some fluctuation on either side.

[dwg71]

I was just wondering since he is being so aggressive about the west movement.

I think he lives in the Houston area, but not sure. What he's doing is reverse -removed-. Looking at the latest visible loop, with the track forecast postions overlayed. It looks like that "eye feature" is moving right on track or just a little north and appears to be moving a little north of due west.

I think when it's all said and done here, you have to admit that the NHC has done a pretty good job this year and when they begin to pinpoint an area they are usually darn close in the end. And no matter what I or dwg or any other of the amatuers around here think, in the end I'm going to stick with what the pros say.

The bottom line is it's way to early in the game for anyone whether you live in Houston or Memphis or wherever to be calling the all clear especially when you are dealing with such a large metro area such has Houston.

Now flame away

"reverse -removed-" - I've never heard of that. LOL. What am I saying that doesnt sound right, or would lead you to believe that it's not based on facts.

[tw861]

It looks like that "eye feature" is moving right on track or just a little north and appears to be moving a little north of due west.

No flaming here, but look at skysummit's radar image right above your post. Its south of NHC's points and still moving nearly due west with some fluctuation on either side.

I'm not gonna sit here and debate every point. As far as the radar goes I suppose the argument could be made about where the wind and pressure center is located within the larger rain free circle. I'm assuming you think its directly in the middle, maybe it is, maybe not. The recon postion marked is within the larger circle on the northern edge. The difference from the recon position and your center is probably no more than 10 miles.

So no, I'm not ready to pronouce this a Mexico landfall, although it would be ok with me since my family and I are booked on a flight out of Houston Saturday morning which now may not go and my trip will be ruined.

You need to quit watching every little wobble and look at the big picture as dwg says he's doing. I'm just gonna stick with the pro's on this one, you think they don't see what he claims to be seeing. Their landfall point has been between Galveston and Matagorda for practically the whole time they have had it crossing the Texas coast.

And oooo, the Euro has shifted south to where ? Matagorda moving north , that really takes southeast Texas off the hook huh. The GFS shifted north and you know what they will shift again but when you average them all out for the last few days where is the middle point ? Between Galveston and Matagorda.

[jkt21787]

It looks like that "eye feature" is moving right on track or just a little north and appears to be moving a little north of due west.

No flaming here, but look at skysummit's radar image right above your post. Its south of NHC's points and still moving nearly due west with some fluctuation on either side.

I'm not gonna sit here and debate every point. As far as the radar goes I suppose the argument could be made about where the wind and pressure center is located within the larger rain free circle. I'm assuming you think its directly in the middle, maybe it is, maybe not. The recon postion marked is within the larger circle on the northern edge. The difference from the recon position and your center is probably no more than 10 miles.

So no, I'm not ready to pronouce this a Mexico landfall, although it would be ok with me since my family and I are booked on a flight out of Houston Saturday morning which now may not go and my trip will be ruined.

You need to quit watching every little wobble and look at the big picture as dwg says he's doing. I'm just gonna stick with the pro's on this one, you think they don't see what he claims to be seeing. Their landfall point has been between Galveston and Matagorda for practically the whole time they have had it crossing the Texas coast.

And oooo, the Euro has shifted south to where ? Matagorda moving north , that really takes southeast Texas off the hook huh. The GFS shifted north and you know what they will shift again but when you average them all out for the last few days where is the middle point ? Between Galveston and Matagorda.

This is a very funny post. You made so many assumptions that are 100% lies about me and my thoughts on this storm, its not even worth addressing.

[tw861]

I was just wondering since he is being so aggressive about the west movement.

I think he lives in the Houston area, but not sure. What he's doing is reverse -removed-. Looking at the latest visible loop, with the track forecast postions overlayed. It looks like that "eye feature" is moving right on track or just a little north and appears to be moving a little north of due west.

I think when it's all said and done here, you have to admit that the NHC has done a pretty good job this year and when they begin to pinpoint an area they are usually darn close in the end. And no matter what I or dwg or any other of the amatuers around here think, in the end I'm going to stick with what the pros say.

The bottom line is it's way to early in the game for anyone whether you live in Houston or Memphis or wherever to be calling the all clear especially when you are dealing with such a large metro area such has Houston.

Now flame away

"reverse -removed-" - I've never heard of that. LOL. What am I saying that doesnt sound right, or would lead you to believe that it's not based on facts.

Ok, whatever. I really don't have time for this anyway. It's not like this is a contest where we will have a winner. I have more to lose than someone in Memphis, so yeah I want it to come this way. Does that sound better to you.