Wobble direction thread...

[dwg71]

Lets keep here in on thread...

What is current heading?

my paper on the monitor shows 265 - 270*

[skysummit]

Lets keep here in on thread...

What is current heading?

my paper on the monitor shows 265 - 270*

That's exactly what I see dwg...265-270.

[gatorcane]

could it miss Texas all together and pull a Katrina and move WSW longer than the NHC predicted? This ridge is very strong.

[Rouster]

I agree, I think it's moving ever so slightly S of W, but still due W.
I don't see the hook N happening. That H is firmly in place right now and has been for a few days. I'm thinking extreme S Tx right now.
Keep on trucking W Rita.

[hicksta]

Track the long term movement. Its still W and a little wnw

[BReb]

"still w and a little wnw"

You think so? Looks a little south of west to me:

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

check out where the hurricane is in relation to latitude 25 n at the beginning and end of this loop. And also look at the western edge of the ridge continuing to build in strong in New Mexico. I think the models will be heading more south.

Btw, thanks to whoever posted the wobble thread- some of us love to discuss wobbles.

[Terry]

Chad Myers on CNN said earlier today that he thought Rita would move a little south before taking her northerly turn. And he did state that this could mean a hit near Brownsville.

[BamaMan]

I can see it now, Moves WSW, slows down, Ridge retreats, then she stalls and looks up at the Coast and picks somewhere to go. Damn RITA !!

[LaBreeze]

After leaving Florida Katrina took that southwesterly jog before making her turn to the northwest/north. Could this be the same?

[skysummit]

Wouldn't it be horrific if she continued her western motion, but gradually slowed down while the high retreated....then she would begin to make her turn following the western perimeter of the high as a Cat 4/5. The turn would go NW, then N, then NE following the coastline of Texas, giving the entire coastline a dose of Cat 4/5 winds and surge. Oh My God...I don't even want to think of that.

[Brent]

No... the hurricane will NOT under any circumstances plow into a ridge... it is not going to SE LA or eastward.

[LaBreeze]

What are our chances here in SW LA?

[skysummit]

What are our chances here in SW LA?

So far looking better and better as long as that high persists which it's looking like it's doing this morning.

[Brent]

What are our chances here in SW LA?

I guess there's a chance, but I'm really doubting. There could be some effects but I doubt the eye will landfall there.

[Rouster]

At this point I don't think it gets close to SW LA. I'm really thinking more and more that it will stay on that due W course straight into Mex/S TX.
For Rita to make a N turn, I think she would have to slow down considerably and right now it doesn't appear that is happening.
We still have alot of time to watch, but that H sure looks to be solid as a rock right now.

[BReb]

"The turn would go NW, then N, then NE following the coastline of Texas, giving the entire coastline a dose of Cat 4/5 winds and surge."

That scenario would keep the hurricane moving slowly over cooler waters near the coast, and it would also allow more entrainment of dry air from Texas and interaction with land. I don't think a slow-moving, coast-hugging storm would be anything close to category 4/5.

[skysummit]

"The turn would go NW, then N, then NE following the coastline of Texas, giving the entire coastline a dose of Cat 4/5 winds and surge."

That scenario would keep the hurricane moving slowly over cooler waters near the coast, and it would also allow more entrainment of dry air from Texas and interaction with land. I don't think a slow-moving, coast-hugging storm would be anything close to category 4/5.

I agree, but it's a "what if" scenario.

[dwg71]

Try the paper on the computer screen with this link and tell me where the XTRAP should be based on this 5 hour loop?

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

IMO, its heading 260-265.

My piece of paper shows it heading 150 miles south of TX/MEX border.

[TampaFl]

Rita is moving south of due west of her projected track. Will this continue???. On this track it would hit South Texas/Northern Mexico. Thoughts and comments welcomed. Click on the link then hit "click for loop"

Robert

Click on the link then hit "click for loop"

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/archive/tropical.cgi?&&leads_images/tropical/GMH/VIS/

[dwg71]

Any thoughts, yeah, I think its spectacular. Rita can go drink 'ritas for all I care.