UNOFFICIAL..Rita #8; 130KT peak; CAT 3/4 land/BIG shift left

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quote Nencweather.com:
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable (see below link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com.

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Forecast 8:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /rita.html

Forecast track is pushed much farther south, primarily based on the short-term motion. Forward speed has been forecasted correctly, but Rita certainly has no northerly component to its motion at the time. Thus, the forecast is on the left side of the guidance envelope. Intensity starts at 115kts, but I make room for the storm to be stronger. Weakening still forecasted prior to landfall.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Track graphic now available.

I'll also add that the peak intensity is really a function of how strong this is right now, which we will know for sure later today.

[jasons2k]

I wouldn't jump the gun by shifting left yet. It was not forecasted to turn yet, and it hasn't, as forecasted, so why change now?

[dwg71]

I wouldn't jump the gun by shifting left yet. It was not forecasted to turn yet, and it hasn't, as forecasted, so why change now?

I think he is basing it on the heading for the past 5 hours or so, that is south of due west. Not WSW, but somewhere in between. 260 or so.

[jasons2k]

I wouldn't jump the gun by shifting left yet. It was not forecasted to turn yet, and it hasn't, as forecasted, so why change now?

I think he is basing it on the heading for the past 5 hours or so, that is south of due west. Not WSW, but somewhere in between. 260 or so.

I see that and think it's temporary. I think it may go west of the forecast intially, but then turn sharper than forecasted, end result still the same - Matagorda IMO.