Question about the Ridge - heeeeeeelp

southerngale · #1 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:21 am

My understanding is the ridge is currently where it was forecast to be from a few days ago. So I'm not sure why the models have trended a little south, unless they have now decided that the ridge is not going to move out at all, or no time soon anyway. Is this the case? This is a monster storm, in size and intensity. If it hits just southwest of Galveston as a cat. 4 (or even cat. 5), I've got to decide whether I want to stay or not. Looking at the models, I'm a little more confident that I can stay, but I don't want to find myself stuck in traffic on the highway at the last minute, wishing I had gotten out of harm's way sooner. But obviously, I really don't want to leave unnecessarily! I'm not an idiot..I do know that I'm in the cone and I'm not expecting a pinpoint, but I'm not in the safest area, I'm surrounded by trees and if the ridge is going to stay strong for the next few days, I may cancel the valuable hotel room I've got reserved a little further north.

If I could analyze this ridge myself, I would. But I'd really like some help here. Please mets or experienced amateurs, any opinions on what you think the ridge is supposed to do in the near future. Again, I thought it was forecast to be strong at this time and then retreat east in a few days, causing a more northern turn. But since the models have changed, maybe the opinions on the ridge have changed too. Insight please.

#2 Postby **Roxy** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:23 am

good question southerngale, I desperately need some insight into this as well.

#3 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:26 am

The NHC track has changed little over the past couple of days.
If you are in the cone then think about getting out. Period.

Galvestongirl · #4 Postby **Galvestongirl** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:26 am

I need that info also, If I go to San Antonio, I just may be running again...dont wanna do that.

SunnyThoughts · #5 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:27 am

Southerngale... I think the timing of when this storm turns towards the northwest is the key, and Im not sure anyone can predict that right now...as it is now, the track looks to be right in the center of coastal texas...if I lived anywhere on the coast..I mean the entire coast...I would move farther inland. If you find it was un-necessary after the fact...thats great...but if you stay until the last minute..and wish you had left, well..you get the picture.

djtil · #6 Postby **djtil** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:27 am

in reality the models have changed very very little from a large scale perspective...i realize that small timing changes mean big things to specific locations along the texas coast.

but....the main thinking concerning the ridge and eventual weakness has been consistent.....the models are just tweaking in the timing of the weakness.

just an amateurs opinion, observation

#7 Postby **seaswing** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:29 am

southerngale..... get out. Don't wait anymore, just pack some things: children, husband, pets and leave.....

#8 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:29 am

Southerngale, at this point every "tick" (i.e. movement) south of west has dramatic implications for us in Texas. I suspect the model shift slightly to the west has to do with the ridge still holding strong and Rita move a little south of due west. But whose to say the turn to the northwest and north won't be dramatic?

You need to be safe rather than sorry.

scostorms · #9 Postby **scostorms** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:31 am

Have an unplanned weekend get away. Book a hotel somewhere, take the family and spend the weekend. If it hits, woohoo you're not there. If it doesn't, well, sure was fun with the family!

#10 Postby **melhow** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:32 am

I think that graphics would be very helpful here. Floydbuster or Kevin Cho usually have the ones that I can understand the best -aren't you both in highschool? Maybe that says something about my cognitive abilities...anyhow, your graphics are great... For me, at least, pictures with arrows showing directions and the what-if scenerios work best...

Rouster · #11 Postby **Rouster** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:33 am

Also bear this in mind. Not that Rita is Katrina, but when Katrina started going NW, she then went N in a pretty good hurry. Now every storm and situation is different, but it could happen.
If I lived in Galvaston I would leave, but that's me.

djtil · #12 Postby **djtil** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:33 am

southerngale..... get out. Don't wait anymore, just pack some things: children, husband, pets and leave.....

for beaumont? id probably stay put......and keep an eye on things for a dramatic change in track thinking.

If I lived in Galvaston I would leave, but that's me

im pretty conservative in my evac thinking....but would agree with this...even based on the track of it missing....Galveston is just too susceptible.

unless the track shifted another 50-100 miles south id be heading out tomorrow evening if I lived in Galveston.

KLP124 · #13 Postby **KLP124** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:37 am

Jefferson County officials are meeting at 10:30 and I would expect we would get more information after that. Right now, we're all wanting to get home and get outside items secured, etc. so that we don't have to worry about them later (if we have to leave in a hurry). The thing is since there have been no evacuation orders issued, they're keeping us at work.

Website · #14 Postby **Brent** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:46 am

Are you in a flood prone area???

southerngale · #15 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:53 am

Brent wrote:Are you in a flood prone area???

Yes, highly flood prone area (where you have to get out by boat), but my specific house has never had water in it in the 5 years I've been here.

But you bring up a good point...how much rain are we expecting with Rita anyway? I've been more concerned with winds.

#16 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:55 am

southerngale wrote:
Brent wrote:Are you in a flood prone area???

Yes, highly flood prone area (where you have to get out by boat), but my specific house has never had water in it in the 5 years I've been here.

But you bring up a good point...how much rain are we expecting with Rita anyway? I've been more concerned with winds.

You're gonna get 5-10 inches of rain and tornadoes. Get out now!

djtil · #17 Postby **djtil** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:58 am

You're gonna get 5-10 inches of rain and tornadoes. Get out now!

again, beaumont?

unless a fairly major track change occurs beaumont will not get 5-10 inches of rain.

inotherwords · #18 Postby **inotherwords** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:59 am

Yeah, I concur. Take a long weekend and hope for the best. In the best case scenario you've had a nice weekend away. Worst case you saved yourself a lot of headaches. I don't see a downside other than being out a bit of money.

Typhoon_Willie · #19 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 11:04 am

You might as well go ahead and go while the highway is still clear SouthernGale. A clear highway is clear sailing. You have any doubt about your safety where you are at then that is enough reason to start going. Be a leader in the mass exodus and not a person in the middle of the pack trying to get out with a possible cat 4/5 trying to catch up with you! What I am trying to say is Rita is not dealing with a traffic jam in its movement, but you may well be dealing with one hindering your movement if you wait too late!!

#20 Postby **Canelaw99** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 11:11 am

You're the only one who can make the decision for yourself

I tend to err on the "better to be safe than sorry" side though. I agree with the above poster - make a long weekend out of it if you can. I'd rather be out of there, just in case... :wink:

Whatever you end up doing, though, you better let us know

Question about the Ridge - heeeeeeelp

Question about the Ridge - heeeeeeelp

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