AFD Tallahassee......W. Gulf Problem with 99L

[Dean4Storms]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
233 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TX AND RIDGES
EWD ACROSS DIXIE. A TUTT LOW IS SPINNING OVER SW FL. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT VERY DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAS PUSHED
INTO N FL ON THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAS ALREADY EVIDENT IN
THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING. AREA RADARS SHOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS. LIKE YESTERDAY, INDIVIDUAL ECHO MOVEMENT ON RADAR
IS DEPENDENT ON THE ALTITUDE OF THE PRECIPITATING CLOUD DECK. THE
LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK WHERE STEERING WINDS ARE
NLY. THE SHOWERS ARE LOW TOPPED WITH LOW CLOUD BASES AS WELL, AND
ARE BEING STEERED IN NEARLY THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER S OF THE FL PANHANDLE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NRN PLAINS. IN THE TROPICS,
A WAVE IS GETTING ITSELF ORGANIZED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MON NIGHT. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT SWEEPS EWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES. THIS WILL HELP THE NRN U.S. FRONT
TO SWEEP SEWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IN
THE GULF WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WWD OVER THE NEXT FEW PERIODS, AND THIS
WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA, NOT ALLOWING
LOWER LEVELS TO DRY OUT. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, PRIMARILY FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER, WE MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR TOMORROW, IF THE
CLOUDS REMAIN AS THICK AS THEY WERE TODAY IN SOME AREAS. THE MID
SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE THIS.

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH TUE.
THE 00/06Z GFS WAS USED FOR MOST FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH THESE
PERIODS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THAT THE 06Z DGEX WAS USED FOR WINDS
FOR DAYS 7-8, MON-TUE. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BEYOND DAY 4 (SAT) IN THE NRN STREAM, BUT THESE HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
ON THE FORECAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A
STALLED FRONT OVER OR JUST S OF OUR OFFSHORE MARINE LEGS, AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE BY SAT MORNING AS THE HIGH MOVES E INTO THE ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER, RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE ERN U.S. THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DEEP ELY FLOW,
WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE IN OFF THE ATLANTIC. POPS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. PRECIP TYPE WILL PRIMARILY BE SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
SYSTEM IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED, THE TPC OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
THE WAVE REACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY CLIMATOLOGY,
AND RECENT GFS MODEL RUNS. THE 00Z GFS BRINGS A WEAK SYSTEM ACROSS
THE YUCATAN OVER THE WEEKEND, AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN NIGHT
AND MON. THE 06Z GFS ALSO SHOWS A TROPICAL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN AT ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME, BUT THE LOW EMERGES INTO THE WRN
GULF AT A MORE NLY LATITUDE. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH ,THE NAM IS STRONGER
THAN THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL TO OUR S, BUT FOLKS IN THE WRN GULF
AREA WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS ONE. THE NEXT NAME ON THE LIST IS
STAN.

&&

.MARINE...WITH THE MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GULF LOW,
THERE IS LESS DISPARITY IN THE WIND FORECASTS. WE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
THE RUC AND GFS/MAV. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELY FLOW WILL SET UP
BEGINNING LATE FRI AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUN. FOR NOW, WE HAVE
SPEEDS BELOW CAUTION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. HOWEVER, THIS COULD CHANGE
DEPENDING ON THE LATITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL FEATURE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA.

&&

[PTrackerLA]

You've got to be kidding me. ENOUGH ALREADY!

[Dean4Storms]

And the name Stan, haven't we had enough trouble with names of Stan.... AfghaniSTAN, PakiSTAN and in my backyard PoopaStan (Dog Doo)?

Is there a country called KatrinaritaSTAN?

[Terrell]

And the name Stan, haven't we had enough trouble with names of Stan.... AfghaniSTAN, PakiSTAN and in my backyard PoopaStan (Dog Doo)?

Is there a country called KatrinaritaSTAN?

Not to mention that we're getting our forces kicked out of a base we were using in UzbekiSTAN, that northern Iraq is often referred to as Iraqi KurdiSTAN.