I think 93 was jumpted on to quick

hurricanedude · #1 Postby **hurricanedude** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:45 pm

just looking at the overall structure, compared to just a few hours ago...and it appears the NHC isnt that worried about it, I think even a TD is doubtful at this time...I even fell for it sayinf a cane was forming....but I have revised my opinion to a strong Wave /weak TD at best.

chadtm80 · #2 Postby **chadtm80** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:48 pm

I disagree.. Things change hour by hour with these things.. In hindsight maybe you are jumping "off" the system to quick? lol.. I did notice the NHC dosent look as concerned as they did earlier.. But that happens in there discussions

hurricanedude · #3 Postby **hurricanedude** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:50 pm

first TWO said conditions could become favorable, now there unfavorable...total opopsite! so yeah, I jumpted off the development wagon based on this :wink:

artist · #4 Postby **artist** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:50 pm

from what I got is that it just has not gotten any better organized - but seems to me the structure is still there looking at it on satellite loop as well as the low pressures. Just give it time.

hurricanedude · #5 Postby **hurricanedude** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:52 pm

BTW where is the possible center at, I cant even pinpoint a possible center yet

caneman · #6 Postby **caneman** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:52 pm

artist wrote:from what I got is that it just has not gotten any better organized - but seems to me the structure is still there looking at it on satellite loop as well as the low pressures. Just give it time.

sure looks to be building on the North side. Give it til tomorrow.

artist · #7 Postby **artist** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:53 pm

caneman - that was my impression too! glad it's not just me. Also remember hurricanedude that it has just gotten back over water a little while ago.

DoctorHurricane2003 · #8 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:55 pm

I think someone is misinterpreting the TWO....let's reread it...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTOUGH SURFACES PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE
AREA...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR A RAPID DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
SPREADING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER WESTERN CUBA.

Not conducive for rapid development is not the same as no development expected.

#9 Postby **Downdraft** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:55 pm

I think what was jumped on more than evolving structure was the energy present. A lot of Stan's former energy is present. If that energy is picked up and moved across the Gulf in the coming days to the northeast it has plenty of time to get its act together doesn't it?

floridahurricaneguy · #10 Postby **floridahurricaneguy** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:55 pm

In my opinion, I would be suprised if it didnt develop into something. Give it time. With the ways things are going this season, its the little weak, barely organized ones that cause terror! ( i am not thinking any thing major but makign a point)

Matt

AZS · #11 Postby **AZS** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:56 pm

It is always the same thing :roll:

If it looks less impressive, it means that it will not developed.

The same thing happened with Katrina, Ophelia, Rita and Stan.

I remember that someone said that STAN was dead, and look what happened later: +100 dead

artist · #12 Postby **artist** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:56 pm

21.9n 86.56w

#13 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 5:07 pm

If the NHC were not concerned with the possible development of this system, then they won't have issued this...

chadtm80 · #14 Postby **chadtm80** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 5:28 pm

hurricanedude wrote:first TWO said conditions could become favorable, now there unfavorable...total opopsite! so yeah, I jumpted off the development wagon based on this

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR A RAPID DEVELOPMENT.

Rainband · #15 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 5:29 pm

chadtm80 wrote:
hurricanedude wrote:first TWO said conditions could become favorable, now there unfavorable...total opopsite! so yeah, I jumpted off the development wagon based on this

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR A RAPID DEVELOPMENT.

Thunder44 · #16 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 5:33 pm

Rainband wrote:
chadtm80 wrote:
hurricanedude wrote:first TWO said conditions could become favorable, now there unfavorable...total opopsite! so yeah, I jumpted off the development wagon based on this

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR A RAPID DEVELOPMENT.

That's same they said about TS Tammy last night. And a couple days ago they didn't seem so concerned with it when it just east of the Bahamas.

vacanechaser · #17 Postby **vacanechaser** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 5:49 pm

chadtm80 wrote:
hurricanedude wrote:first TWO said conditions could become favorable, now there unfavorable...total opopsite! so yeah, I jumpted off the development wagon based on this

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR A RAPID DEVELOPMENT.

correct... thats what the two said.. give it time.. these things take time.. with the possible low now over the water and tammy moving away, we should see things start to improve.. the upper low in the northern gulf should move westward and turn the upper level out flow pattern a little more favorable as this thing moves toi the east of it... Water is plenty warm and the pattern is complex.. Lets see what is left, or how well it looks tomorrow before you think no development

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

#18 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 5:51 pm

Conditions might become for favorable. Nhc's TWO said conditions are not favorable for RAPID DEVELOPMENT. It did not say it wasn't favorable for slow development.

hurricanedude · #19 Postby **hurricanedude** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:24 pm

thats a good point, they didnt mention slow development....rapid development...so my take is no development

I think 93 was jumpted on to quick

I think 93 was jumpted on to quick

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