Good Discussion from Tallahassee NWS Re: 93L

[N2FSU]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
305 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2005


.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAN THEY WERE
AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES
WHICH MUST BE SORTED OUT. SO I DID NOT GO WITH EITHER A STRAIGHT NAM
OR GFS SOLUTION. IN FACT...I ADOPTED THE GFS FOR THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS WAS DONE BECAUSE MANUAL ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT
THE GFS HAD NEARLY NAILED THE INITIAL CONDITIONS AT 00Z.
HOWEVER...AS THE MODEL EVOLVED IN TIME...CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS
FORECAST DIMINISHED DUE TO A SUPPOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GOMEX. THE GFS LATER TODAY INDICATES THAT AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ABOUT 80 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST AND THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN TURN DUE NORTH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN MOVE INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA. THIS IS A
LITTLE PUZZLING AS JUST AT THE TIME THIS LOW IS MOVING NORTH...A
COLD FRONT IS INDICATED TO BE MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THIS WOULD INDICATE THIS LOW SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST THAN
JUST NORTH. BASED ON THIS...I KEPT THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...BUT WENT WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACK
FURTHER TO THE RIGHT OVER THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA. EITHER WAY...WE
WILL HAVE A WET COUPLE OF DAYS IN THIS UNIQUE AND COMPLICATED
WEATHER PATTERN.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ONLY CONCERNS WILL BE A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT THE GFS TRIES TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST LOOKS TO CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WERE TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z MEX GUIDANCE. THE MEX
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO WARMED MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS. SO PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY OF 58 DEGREES
AT TLH IS NOW 61 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY. NEVERTHELESS...WILL FEEL LIKE A
NICE FLORIDA FALL DAY IN TALLAHASSEE.

[cinlfla]

Thanks for highlighting the points, it makes it a lot easier for thoughs of us that don't have the time to sit and read the whole discussion.

[N2FSU]

You're welcome!

[boca]

I see this area moving NE not N. Maybe the ULL in the NE Gulf will pull it more north,I don't see that hapeening though.