WTPN21 PGTW 061400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 061351Z OCT 05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.2N 110.9E TO 16.7N 107.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
061130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N
110.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 17.1N 110.6E HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE AREA
AS WELL AS A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST THAT COULD AID IN OUTFLOW.
THE AREA IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. DUE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASED
CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
071400Z.//