The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
All comments, suggestions, possible forecast improvements, and questions are welcome! This is my first forecast on any tropical system on Storm2K.
MY CURRENT FORECASTED INVEST.93L TRACK...
---Overview---
The active 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season continues. Tropical Storm Tammy has weakened to a depression as it has moved inland over the southeastern and east-central U.S., producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Currently, there are several areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic Basin, including the Caribbean region and the Bahamas, spread out from the west-central to central Atlantic to the northwest Caribbean, with showers and storms resulting from moisture flow (such as from the remnants from Tammy and a wave just east of the Lesser Antilles) across Florida and the southeastern and east-central U.S. One of the areas of concern is the system I am forecasting and analyzing, INVEST.93L.
---Synoptics and Environment of INVEST.93L---
INVEST.93L is originally an area of moisture and disturbed weather from Stan, whose remnants are now dissipating and have interacted with a developing system from a wave in the eastern Pacific. The area of disturbed weather organized and started to develop convection and, eventually, separated itself from Stan's main circulation. The now seperate area moved across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the northwestern Caribbean in the western extent of the Caribbean Sea. The system was concluded to have developed sufficient convection to be classified as an INVEST, and INVEST.93L was born.
Currently, the main connective coverage of INVEST.93L is located a few hundred miles to the south of Cuba. INVEST.93L has been flaring up continuously for the past few days. INVEST.93L is currently interacting with a weak to moderate trough trailing down along the ouflow of Tammy (which is helping to producing showers and storms over the western North Atlantic, the Bahamas, and coastal areas of the southeastern U.S.), an ULL in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, and outflow along winds along the southern extent of the high-pressure ridge over the central area of the north-central to central North Atlantic. Interaction with the ULL in the northeastern part of the Gulf of Mexico, along with the trough and outflow from Tammy, is currently shearing INVEST.93L and carrying moisture northward from it into the Bahamas, Cuba, the Florida Keys and over the Florida Peninsula.
---Analysis of INVEST.93L---
INVEST.93L has been wobbling somewhat throughout the day. Originally, the movement was north-northeast; however, the main area of convection has now contracted (as shear has streamed some of the originally larger area of convection away from the system) and appears to have stalled somewhat or move slightly east-southeast in the process. This may indicate a relocation of the possible center. A northward or north-northeast motion expected to resume or begin over the next 24 to 36 hours as the system begins to advance toward a slight weakness in the North Atlantic high-pressure ridge's western end that extends from South Carolina down into Florida, the Bahamas, and northern to northeastern Caribbean, further nudged by - albeit weak - steering currents. This motion is expected to continue as the system approaches the coast of western Cuba; the motion is also expected to continue as the system approaches the southwestern coast of Florida after crossing Cuba. The overall motion is expected to be slow at first, with a gradual increase in speed possible as the system gets very near or at the Cuban coastline and crosses over the Cuban landmass. After that, a possible reduction in forward speed may occur as INVEST.93L begins to approach Florida or just before Florida landfall occurs. The movement forecast is somewhat difficult and problematic, given the factors of the approaching front in the east-central U.S., the movement of the edges of the North Atlantic high-pressure ridge, the weak to moderate trough trailing Tammy, and the ULL in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The weak steering currents also complicate things.
The intensity forecast is also somewhat tricky. I expect some slight strengthening as INVEST.93L approaches Cuba, followed by weakening as the system moves over land. Gradual strengthening as the system approaches the southwestern Florida coast is possible as well; however, shear will (such as from the ULL) will likely limit fast intensification. The ULL is expected by some models to weaken, gradually starting in around 36 hours, potentially allowing for a period of slightly quicker intensification, possibly to tropical storm strength, which is still possible. Some slight strengthening just several hours before Florida landfall is also possible.
Here is my intensity forecast...
12 HOURS... 20KT
24 HOURS... 25KT
36 HOURS... 30KT
48 HOURS... 30KT (INLAND)
60 HOURS... 25KT (INLAND; APPROACHING WATER [STRAITS OF FLORIDA])
72 HOURS... 30KT
84 HOURS... 35KT
96 HOURS... 40KT
108 HOURS... 45KT (APPROACHING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST)
NOTE - My intensity forecasts are for 108 hours.
I am currently forecasting a 45KT to 50KT tropical storm at Florida landfall in southwest Florida between Fort Myers and Naples.
That's my first forecast... any thoughts or opinions?
