0Z GFS...No Big Changes

[MWatkins]

The synoptic mission flew tonight...and the GFS has stood by it's solution. The big change...if there is one...is a track a bit further west toward the Yucatan early on in the forecast...but once Wilma gets handed to the westerlies...it's the same song at the same dance...jsut 18 hours later than was indicated from the 18Z GFS...and in fact the track from the model is close to the model consensus from 18Z and 00Z interpolated...and right on the NHC track.

Of course this is still happening in the day 4 period...but it's basically the same track we have seen for the past 7 runs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_102m.gif

MW

[DESTRUCTION5]

The synoptic mission flew tonight...and the GFS has stood by it's solution. The big change...if there is one...is a track a bit further west toward the Yucatan early on in the forecast...but once Wilma gets handed to the westerlies...it's the same song at the same dance...jsut 18 hours later than was indicated from the 18Z GFS...and in fact the track from the model is close to the model consensus from 18Z and 00Z interpolated...and right on the NHC track.

Of course this is still happening in the day 4 period...but it's basically the same track we have seen for the past 7 runs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_102m.gif

MW

Much further north with the WPB area exit, no MW?

[Bgator]

The synoptic mission flew tonight...and the GFS has stood by it's solution. The big change...if there is one...is a track a bit further west toward the Yucatan early on in the forecast...but once Wilma gets handed to the westerlies...it's the same song at the same dance...jsut 18 hours later than was indicated from the 18Z GFS...and in fact the track from the model is close to the model consensus from 18Z and 00Z interpolated...and right on the NHC track.

Of course this is still happening in the day 4 period...but it's basically the same track we have seen for the past 7 runs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_102m.gif

MW

In the one i saw it took it thru Marathon(keyes) up to near WPB, weird!

[MWatkins]

The synoptic mission flew tonight...and the GFS has stood by it's solution. The big change...if there is one...is a track a bit further west toward the Yucatan early on in the forecast...but once Wilma gets handed to the westerlies...it's the same song at the same dance...jsut 18 hours later than was indicated from the 18Z GFS...and in fact the track from the model is close to the model consensus from 18Z and 00Z interpolated...and right on the NHC track.

Of course this is still happening in the day 4 period...but it's basically the same track we have seen for the past 7 runs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_102m.gif

MW

Much further north with the WPB area exit, no MW?

Well...while I agree that is somewhat significant for people who live in that area...and further north than the GFS was suggesting at 18Z...but in the grand scheme of things if it comes out in northern Broward or Palm Beach county is at such a relatively small scale...at least at this point...it's too hard to call it a significant shift 4 days out.

The general synoptic idea has held from the GFS...waiting to see how NOGAPS holds up then I am off to sleep...

MW

[DESTRUCTION5]

The synoptic mission flew tonight...and the GFS has stood by it's solution. The big change...if there is one...is a track a bit further west toward the Yucatan early on in the forecast...but once Wilma gets handed to the westerlies...it's the same song at the same dance...jsut 18 hours later than was indicated from the 18Z GFS...and in fact the track from the model is close to the model consensus from 18Z and 00Z interpolated...and right on the NHC track.

Of course this is still happening in the day 4 period...but it's basically the same track we have seen for the past 7 runs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_102m.gif

MW

Much further north with the WPB area exit, no MW?

Well...while I agree that is somewhat significant for people who live in that area...and further north than the GFS was suggesting at 18Z...but in the grand scheme of things if it comes out in northern Broward or Palm Beach county is at such a relatively small scale...at least at this point...it's too hard to call it a significant shift 4 days out.

The general synoptic idea has held from the GFS...waiting to see how NOGAPS holds up then I am off to sleep...

MW

K Let us know..Thanks!

[melhow]

Which name would be better for a band:

"Synoptic Mission "

OR

"Strong Proton Event"

???

[MWatkins]

NOGAPS looks to be on track...although a tad north of the GFS at 108 hours. Still...once again...the synoptic reasoning holds up with a closer pass to the Yucatan then a track towards Naples FL...or perhaps just north...I cant see the 84 or 96 hour points in the model...just the 72 and 108...but again it's not going to make much difference.

Did somebody say 901 MB?

MW

[DESTRUCTION5]

NOGAPS looks to be on track...although a tad north of the GFS at 108 hours. Still...once again...the synoptic reasoning holds up with a closer pass to the Yucatan then a track towards Naples FL...or perhaps just north...I cant see the 84 or 96 hour points in the model...just the 72 and 108...but again it's not going to make much difference.

Did somebody say 901 MB?

MW

Yes MW were all Cleaning our dinner out of our pants....