UNOFFICIAL..Wilma #13; stall Yucatan/SW FL Monday PM-CAT 1/2

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quote Nencweather.com:
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable (see below link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com.

Verifications may be found here:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... index.html

Forecast 13:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... wilma.html

Track is more uncertain, because the trough boundary and axis has to be redefined for these forecasts. 4 of 5 GUNA ensemble models as of 06Z cut the storm eastward--presumably with southward penetration of stiff zonal flow. For now, however, models have been everything but consistent, and the forecast is along the same track and close to the GFS solution. Intensity is knocked down considerably as well for Florida, allowing for a Category 2, or maybe even a Category One storm--but don't get overly relaxed if you're in the path. The new uncertainty forces anyone from central to southern Florida and even Cuba to monitor this storm closely.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Extra little note: I won't be available for comments until about lunchtime, but leave any questions/comments and I'll get back to them later.

sp

[hicksta]

Good forcast scott.