Will Wilma Beat The Shear? An Interesting Theory...

[MiamiensisWx]

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I am noticing that Wilma appears to be getting ready to soon move off the northern/northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula soon. As it does this, it may likely start to pick up speed in a very quick manner. This makes me think that it may be possible for Wilma to beat the increasing shear enough to strengthen before landfall. Also, Wilma's fast speed then may help her strengthen/maintain her intensity until landfall by being just ahead of the front/incoming shear. Here is the latest shear tendency trend chart...


Notice how Wilma is situated on the northern/northeastern tip of the Yuctan Peninsula. This is close to where Wilma is soon expected to start to pick up speed. Currently, shear is decreasing over Florida and the Bahamas, with the increasing shear still to the north and west and still in the process of pushing southward. This leads me to believe that Wilma may strengthen and/or maintain her intensity by moving faster ahead of the front, resulting in a stronger system for Florida.

All in all, this means that you should not underestimate the strength of Wilma at Florida landfall because there is still a huge uncertainty in the track and equally in the intensity.

Any thoughts?

[Aslkahuna]

If Wilma does accelerate to a forward speed that's a significant percentage of the shear then the storm could maintain itself at a higher level of intensity than otherwise.

Steve

[WxGuy1]

All in all, this means that you should not underestimate the strength of Wilma at Florida landfall because there is still a huge uncertainty in the track and equally in the intensity.

Any thoughts?

I agree, but the same goes the other way -- there seem to be some folks that are 100% sure that she'll be Cat 4. It goes to discredit some folks who are leaning towards the stronger intensite side, since anyone who's been following tropical systems for any length of time knows that things are NEVER certain, and you can really never be entirely sure about the intensity of a storm >24 hours out.

The NAM and GFS show >50kt 250mb flow into the central and northern Gulf in 42 hours. Shear may be decreasing in the short-term, but it will increase tomorrow and through tomorrow night.