Huge North Shift in models!

[caneman]

First GFS has been most consistant and now takes Wilma into Sarasota. The GFDL has now shifted close between Port Charlotte and Ft. MYERS. And I throw out the UKMET because it has been far from accurate. I've consistantly stated I believe it will be between Sarsota and Ft. MYers.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Ivanhater]

might want to change the title up a bit, there is not a HUGE shift north

[jkt21787]

The model shifts have been far from huge....

Still your landfall call is reasonable, probably will be the southern portion of your area defined.

[caneman]

might want to change the title up a bit, there is not a HUGE shift north

Huge enough for people who live in Ft. MYers, POrt Charlotte or Sarasota. I've stated repeatedly I don't think it will be Naples.

[Brent]

Not exactly... they were always in the cone.

"Huge" shift would be several models showing a hit OUTSIDE of the cone... like the Panhandle or something.

[caneman]

And one further point. I don't like the fact that it seems NHC has relied way to much on GFDL and UKMET when GFS has been preforming well too. In my opinion the line all along should have been on Ft. Meyers or POrt Charlotte.

[cjrciadt]

The angle of approach is getting closer to NE than ENE, anything still could happen.

[jkt21787]

might want to change the title up a bit, there is not a HUGE shift north

Huge enough for people who live in Ft. MYers, POrt Charlotte or Sarasota. I've stated repeatedly I don't think it will be Naples.

Not everybody lives there though. We don't want people thinking in the Big Bend area that they suddenly shifted there. Thats a huge shift. This is not, taking the storm as a whole.

[Bgator]

The only model that shifted is the GFS and it shifted like 30 miles, not HUGE at all! And models will coninue to change, if u look, models go south at night, and north during day!

[Ivanhater]

might want to change the title up a bit, there is not a HUGE shift north

Huge enough for people who live in Ft. MYers, POrt Charlotte or Sarasota. I've stated repeatedly I don't think it will be Naples.

Not everybody lives there though. We don't want people thinking in the Big Bend area that they suddenly shifted there. Thats a huge shift. This is not, taking the storm as a whole.

exactly

[gatorcane]

they should still shift more north. I still say within 50 miles of Tampa Bay although now I'm leaning to the south some. But still too close for comfort for them.

[caneman]

might want to change the title up a bit, there is not a HUGE shift north

Huge enough for people who live in Ft. MYers, POrt Charlotte or Sarasota. I've stated repeatedly I don't think it will be Naples.

Not everybody lives there though. We don't want people thinking in the Big Bend area that they suddenly shifted there. Thats a huge shift. This is not, taking the storm as a whole.

Huge enough for a big metro area like Tampa which includes Sarasota.
Big, small or huge whichever word you want to use the point is, other cities other than Naples may now be more affected.

[SouthFloridawx]

Hey those models are from 8 am this morning EDT old. Please wait for the new models

[caneman]

The only model that shifted is the GFS and it shifted like 30 miles, not HUGE at all! And models will coninue to change, if u look, models go south at night, and north during day!

Considering they've been very accurate I'll take it. Did you not look at the new GFDL?

[jkt21787]

might want to change the title up a bit, there is not a HUGE shift north

Huge enough for people who live in Ft. MYers, POrt Charlotte or Sarasota. I've stated repeatedly I don't think it will be Naples.

Not everybody lives there though. We don't want people thinking in the Big Bend area that they suddenly shifted there. Thats a huge shift. This is not, taking the storm as a whole.

Huge enough for a big metro area like Tampa which includes Sarasota.
Big, small or huge whichever word you want to use the point is, other cities other than Naples may now be more affected.

Again, not everyone lives in Tampa. You must take this as a whole, not for one specific city. That misleads everyone else. AS A WHOLE, this shift is hardly huge, just very slight.

[Bgator]

The only model that shifted is the GFS and it shifted like 30 miles, not HUGE at all! And models will coninue to change, if u look, models go south at night, and north during day!

Considering they've been very accurate I'll take it. Did you not look at the new GFDL?

And the trof will be near tampa tonight which means it cant go there! Just wait till the turn starts then if the model change u can scream!

[WxGuy1]

Again, not everyone lives in Tampa. You must take this as a whole, not for one specific city. That misleads everyone else. AS A WHOLE, this shift is hardly huge, just very slight.

Not to mention, it's highly unadviseable to read into a 20-40 mile shift in a 36 hour forecast from a numerical model! I'll agree that the RAMIFICATIONS of a 40 mile track shift north is huge, but the shift itself is almost trivial given that we are looking ~36 hours out.

[bucman1]

I think enough people have made their point, give the guy a break-

Thanks!!

[iceangel]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[gatorcane]

And the trof will be near tampa tonight which means it cant go there! Just wait till the turn starts then if the model change u can scream

!

It won't be through Tampa tonight. That is too fast an estimate.