SW Carribean development

[Derecho]

Sort of surprised not to see a thread on this since the UKMET, ECMWF, and NOGAPS have shown this more and more distinctly every run for several runs now and the GFS is finally beginning to show it (as does the ETA.)

Doesn't seem to go anywhere fast on any of the models. Looks like a low should begin forming in about 48 hours if they're correct.

[cycloneye]

GFS.



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 11.8N 76.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 26.10.2005 11.8N 76.9W WEAK

12UTC 26.10.2005 11.0N 79.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.10.2005 12.1N 80.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.10.2005 12.0N 80.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 28.10.2005 12.9N 80.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.10.2005 13.6N 80.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 29.10.2005 14.7N 79.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.10.2005 14.8N 80.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.10.2005 15.0N 79.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.10.2005 15.7N 79.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 31.10.2005 16.4N 80.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY




UKMET.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... hour=144hr

NOGAPS.

Here comes Beta?

[superfly]

Wave looks very weak and shear is strong in the area so I doubt it.

[Anonymous]

shear is strong in the area so I doubt it.

I dont understand why people misunderstand this. If shear is high in the Gulf of Mexico on September 20th...that does not mean that on September 22nd, conditions wont be ideal. SHEAR CHANGES

[cinlfla]

But wouldn't the water temps be much colder since we just have this major cold front come through. I would think that would inhibit any kind of development in the sw carribean unless that water temps down three are still plenty warm.

[Anonymous]

[gerrit]

[caneman]

Arghhh,

Geez people. Some where saying season was over before Wilma and alpha. If Wilma is still 100kts. and zippin along at 51 mph. and in much cooler waters than the GOM, isn't it possible that the GOM is still warm enough to support a 100kt. storm? And as another poster mentioned shear is not necessarily going to remain strong. Some forget the Tampa Bay was hit by the latest Hurricane ever which I believe was towards the end of November. In a season of firsts, records, etc... One would think people would err on the side of anything is possible. Especially this season.

[caneman]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[alicia-w]

shear is strong in the area so I doubt it.

I dont understand why people misunderstand this. If shear is high in the Gulf of Mexico on September 20th...that does not mean that on September 22nd, conditions wont be ideal. SHEAR CHANGES

September?

[jenshops]

Where can you find info on how many, if any, hurricanes have hit the US in Nov?
Right now, all the tv news people have said that this is it and the season is over but I remember someone saying, before Rita, that Texas season was over. I also remember people thinking that having had such an early start to the season, it might end early. With the way things have gone, I don't think its wise to say that there will be no more storms.

[100feettstormsurge]

Weather underground has the tracks of all past tropical systems including those forming in November. I know hurricane Kate made U.S. landfall in November of '85.

[curtadams]

There was no thread because we are all so burned out. Wilma's been flying off as a major even during transition and after landfall, with a snowicane threat, and nobody cares. I've seen more Cat 5s in the past three years than I can remember for the 35 years before. I've spent over a month in intense stormwatch mode and 2 weeks in "oh ^&^%& is the condo going to get it" mode. uhgh

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 251526
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
WILMA... LOCATED ABOUT 570 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA AND 440 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA
SCOTIA.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN


Here we go again!!!

[angelwing]

Gee, no rest for the weary

[cjrciadt]

NOGAPS in 12days

[cycloneye]

Gee, no rest for the weary

I wanted to get a little rest from the forum for a few days but it looks like some more activity soon to cause me to stay moderating the forum.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This year is simply outrageously active--- more development
would not surprise me given that NHC now says it's possible.
Looking at past years= it seems that some final development is possible
through November. This year a December storm would not surprise
me given how crazy it's been.

[cinlfla]

I am sure you do need rest, you do a lot for this board I know we all appreciate you very much. Thank You

[cycloneye]

12z GFS starting to roll in the above at 48 hours.