It's another test

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cycloneye
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It's another test

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:22 am

WHXX01 KWBC 111352
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME (AL812005) ON 20051111 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051111 1200 051112 0000 051112 1200 051113 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.5N 81.0W 9.1N 81.9W 9.8N 82.8W 10.6N 83.9W
BAMM 8.5N 81.0W 8.8N 81.9W 9.2N 82.9W 9.6N 83.8W
A98E 8.5N 81.0W 8.7N 81.4W 8.9N 82.2W 9.1N 82.8W
LBAR 8.5N 81.0W 8.9N 81.3W 10.2N 81.6W 11.8N 81.9W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 26KTS 29KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 25KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051113 1200 051114 1200 051115 1200 051116 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.2N 85.2W 12.4N 88.6W 14.0N 91.9W 16.1N 94.9W
BAMM 10.0N 85.1W 10.7N 87.9W 10.9N 90.1W 11.2N 92.6W
A98E 9.6N 82.9W 11.0N 82.8W 12.6N 83.2W 13.8N 83.4W
LBAR 13.6N 82.1W 16.5N 81.7W 17.0N 80.3W 17.5N 79.1W
SHIP 32KTS 34KTS 26KTS 16KTS
DSHP 27KTS 31KTS 23KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.5N LONCUR = 81.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 8.2N LONM12 = 81.1W DIRM12 = 71DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 8.4N LONM24 = 81.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

It's a casual thing that the location is near the area that NHC is watching and the models are jumping about but this is only a test from the tropical models.The catch to know it's a test is the numbers at the top (AL81) instead of AL90. :)
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#2 Postby artist » Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:31 am

aren't those test runs to see if the models pick up on anything though?
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:32 am


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS (AL892005) ON 20051109 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051109 1800 051110 0600 051110 1800 051111 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.0N 90.0W 23.7N 89.8W 22.9N 89.6W 21.8N 89.7W
BAMM 24.0N 90.0W 24.2N 90.8W 24.1N 91.6W 23.8N 92.4W
A98E 24.0N 90.0W 24.3N 88.6W 24.0N 87.9W 22.8N 87.2W
LBAR 24.0N 90.0W 23.5N 89.2W 22.9N 88.9W 22.1N 89.0W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 30KTS 29KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 30KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051111 1800 051112 1800 051113 1800 051114 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.1N 90.1W 21.5N 91.0W 24.3N 90.7W 27.8N 86.0W
BAMM 23.8N 93.2W 25.8N 94.2W 29.7N 92.7W 33.6N 86.9W
A98E 22.2N 86.6W 21.2N 87.4W 21.4N 87.5W 21.6N 87.3W
LBAR 21.4N 89.1W 21.5N 88.8W 25.1N 88.2W 30.0N 86.2W
SHIP 28KTS 23KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 28KTS 23KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.0N LONCUR = 90.0W DIRCUR = 70DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 23.4N LONM12 = 91.8W DIRM12 = 67DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 22.8N LONM24 = 93.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 95NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

This was the test for chris which it says AL89 which is not for real. :)
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#4 Postby skysummit » Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:33 am

Yea....since it has Chris in the middle of the Gulf! :D That one caught me off guard too. :roll:
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:34 am

artist wrote:aren't those test runs to see if the models pick up on anything though?


When they do these tests on consecutive days I go Hmmmm as maybe the real deal may not be far in days.
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 11, 2005 2:44 pm

Bumping for those who think that something is brewing right now. :)
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#7 Postby caribepr » Fri Nov 11, 2005 7:10 pm

cycloneye wrote:Bumping for those who think that something is brewing right now. :)


Something is brewing, but it is just coffee at the cafe. That's my story and I'm sticking to it!!! Right now, here, the weather is beautiful, the cart is open and busy, and winter people are arriving. THERE IS NOTHING BREWING BUT THE COFFEE!!! 8-)
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#8 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Nov 11, 2005 7:25 pm

caribepr wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Bumping for those who think that something is brewing right now. :)


Something is brewing, but it is just coffee at the cafe. That's my story and I'm sticking to it!!! Right now, here, the weather is beautiful, the cart is open and busy, and winter people are arriving. THERE IS NOTHING BREWING BUT THE COFFEE!!! 8-)


LOL, but seriously, be careful of a disturbance in the southwest Caribbean that has the potential to become a TC as it is forecasted to move toward your area.
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#9 Postby WindRunner » Fri Nov 11, 2005 7:45 pm

And the test continued this afternoon as this "fake" invest got another run, and DSHIPS actually intensifies this more than SHIPS does. Anyone care to explain?

674
WHXX01 KWBC 111930
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME (AL812005) ON 20051111 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051111 1800 051112 0600 051112 1800 051113 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.7N 80.6W 9.2N 81.4W 9.9N 82.3W 10.7N 83.4W
BAMM 8.7N 80.6W 9.0N 81.4W 9.5N 82.4W 9.8N 83.5W
A98E 8.7N 80.6W 8.9N 80.6W 9.1N 81.2W 8.9N 81.8W
LBAR 8.7N 80.6W 9.2N 80.6W 10.3N 80.8W 11.9N 81.0W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 30KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051113 1800 051114 1800 051115 1800 051116 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.2N 84.9W 12.4N 88.6W 13.8N 92.5W 15.8N 95.9W
BAMM 10.1N 84.9W 10.4N 87.7W 10.3N 90.0W 10.1N 92.8W
A98E 8.6N 82.0W 8.4N 81.9W 8.8N 82.6W 8.7N 84.4W
LBAR 13.6N 81.2W 16.2N 81.1W 17.0N 80.3W 17.3N 79.6W
SHIP 39KTS 50KTS 55KTS 55KTS
DSHP 42KTS 53KTS 58KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.7N LONCUR = 80.6W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 8.3N LONM12 = 81.0W DIRM12 = 45DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 8.2N LONM24 = 81.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....



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#10 Postby P.K. » Fri Nov 11, 2005 8:08 pm

WindRunner wrote:And the test continued this afternoon as this "fake" invest got another run, and DSHIPS actually intensifies this more than SHIPS does. Anyone care to explain?


That happened the other day as well for one of the forecast points which I thought was odd.
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#11 Postby caribepr » Sat Nov 12, 2005 12:52 am

wxmann_91 wrote:
caribepr wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Bumping for those who think that something is brewing right now. :)


Something is brewing, but it is just coffee at the cafe. That's my story and I'm sticking to it!!! Right now, here, the weather is beautiful, the cart is open and busy, and winter people are arriving. THERE IS NOTHING BREWING BUT THE COFFEE!!! 8-)


LOL, but seriously, be careful of a disturbance in the southwest Caribbean that has the potential to become a TC as it is forecasted to move toward your area.


Sigh, no worries, we're watching. Thanks.
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#12 Postby arlwx » Sat Nov 12, 2005 7:22 am

The Navy mets used to run exercises (HURREXs) all the time in April and May each year (but with the fake messages only occuring M-F). Looks like NHC is doing the same thing...
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#13 Postby WindRunner » Sat Nov 12, 2005 8:35 am

And our fake storm is up to 25kts now! Models show minimum TS before starting to weaken.

481
WHXX01 KWBC 121301
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME (AL812005) ON 20051112 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051112 1200 051113 0000 051113 1200 051114 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.2N 80.9W 10.2N 81.7W 11.1N 82.8W 11.7N 84.2W
BAMM 9.2N 80.9W 10.0N 81.9W 10.6N 83.1W 11.0N 84.4W
A98E 9.2N 80.9W 9.6N 81.2W 10.0N 82.0W 10.3N 82.8W
LBAR 9.2N 80.9W 10.1N 81.4W 11.6N 81.9W 13.3N 82.3W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051114 1200 051115 1200 051116 1200 051117 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 85.8W 13.6N 89.4W 15.3N 92.7W 17.0N 95.3W
BAMM 11.4N 85.8W 11.7N 88.4W 11.4N 91.2W 11.2N 94.6W
A98E 11.0N 83.5W 12.8N 84.3W 14.3N 86.4W 15.2N 89.2W
LBAR 14.5N 82.5W 16.8N 82.2W 17.8N 81.9W 18.5N 81.4W
SHIP 41KTS 41KTS 29KTS 0KTS
DSHP 28KTS 29KTS 18KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.2N LONCUR = 80.9W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 8.8N LONM12 = 80.9W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 8.4N LONM24 = 80.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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