All the eggs in one basket?

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DESTRUCTION5
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All the eggs in one basket?

#1 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:57 pm

Is it me or is the NHC taking a huge gamble with the GFDL...? Seems like thier entire forcast is hinged on the GFDL ...
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Re: All the eggs in one basket?

#2 Postby Jevo » Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:05 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Is it me or is the NHC taking a huge gamble with the GFDL...? Seems like thier entire forcast is hinged on the GFDL ...


All those crazy people with Phd's and years of expirence what are they thinking

:hehe:
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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#3 Postby Hurricanehink » Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:07 pm

The GFDL has done really well on certain storms this year; Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. It has shown some skill in the intensification world, but this time is iffy. We'll see.
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#4 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:09 pm

Yea, it shows a Cat 2 into florida, and a Cat 3 in the Atlantic...
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#5 Postby Damar91 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:11 pm

obviously that model does not take into consideration wind sheer. Unless it knows something we don't.
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#6 Postby mike815 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:22 pm

Yes the GFDL does not do as good with the wind shear. Though it has been a very good model this yr. its become one of my fav. to look at.
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#7 Postby Dr. Jonah Rainwater » Sat Nov 19, 2005 2:31 pm

Wilma and Charley didn't have problems with wind shear, but Gamma is too little to survive that front very well. The GFDL is better at forecasting larger hurricanes...
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#8 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 19, 2005 2:33 pm

I programmed the GFDL model..... :D :wink:
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