The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
**The below is posted on my site as well, but as yet I don't have permission to post it**
Tropical Storm Gamma
Amateur Hurricane Center
Advisory 5 - 5:00 PM EST November 17, 2005
The recon flight this afternoon found a closed circulation and flight-level winds of 49kt. Hence, the National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories, and since they have named it Gamma I will start referring to it as such. The initial intensity is set at 40kt(45mph), since the aircraft was flying low at 900mb (1500 feet).
The track forecast has been revised somewhat, due to a more westerly componant to the motion, and a strong trough to the system's northeast. The new track calls for a continued northwestern motion for the next 24 hours, followed by a slow turn to the northeast. The system will probably stay offshore during that time, but a brush with the Yucatan coast is possible. Florida is much more "in the cone" now, and landfall is expected very near Wilma's landfall point in about 100 hours.
The intensity forecast has been revised a bit also, due to the better organization and slightly lower pressure (1003 mb), and now calls for a 70kt(80mph) Category 1 Hurricane at landfall in Florida. However...given the warm waters of the Caribbean, and the high shears ahead of the system...this is a very uncertain intensity forecast. Interests from Tampa, FL, the Yucatan, and Cuba should monitor the system closely.
Initial: 16.5N 86.5W 40kt(45mph)
12 Hour: 17.0N 87.0W 40kt(45mph)
24 Hour: 17.5N 87.0W 45kt(50mph)
48 Hour: 19.0N 86.5W 55kt(65mph)
72 Hour: 21.5N 86.0W 65kt(75mph)
96 Hour: 25.0N 84.0W 70kt(80mph)
120 Hour: 27.5N 81.0W 55kt(65mph)...inland over Florida
The note in the first part is because I have been issuing advisories on this system for 36 hours. If I upgrade a wave to a depression and the NHC doesn't, I refer to it as '1a' or '10j' (my #, then the letter corresponding to the NHC's if they upg it), and if I upgrade to a storm and the NHC doesn't, I use the depression name for simplicity. Hence, it was 'Tropical Storm 28ab' last advisory, I didn't consider this a true regeneration.[/quote]