Attention, please

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Okay I know this season has been active and has kept everyone busy, but, just because we have had 25 named storms this season, it does NOT mean that next season we will see 300 named storms.

I bring this up because people tend to get 'excited' and out of perspective after season like this in what they expect. Remember, the long term average is ~10 Named Storms, and even the past 10 years it has been ~14 Named Storms. Note that '14' is not equal to '300.'

Keep in mind that this season had RECORD Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies, as well as pretty much perfect conditions for an active year. It is highly highly unlikely that it will not be this way next year, although it will most definitely happen in the next 30-60 years.

Please, all I ask you is to KEEP THINGS IN PERSPECTIVE, and not go whacky. If things happen, let them happen as they happen...don't rush things.

If you have *clear* evidence right now that next season will have 19-30 named storms, by all means let's hear it...but from what I see, it will be back down to more normal levels for the past decade....~13-16 named storms from the way SSTAs are decreasing.

[CajunMama]

Party pooper! Some people have fun trying to predict the next season...don't rain on their parade!

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Better bummed out now that hearing "THIS SEASON IS A DUD" every 5 posts and people getting bummed out because they will probably be wrong next year

[yoda]

We will see how next season progresses. Mother Nature likes to throw different kinds of things at us, so we won't know till next year. BTW, I predict 2 gazillion hurricanes next year...

[mike815]

VERY GOOD POINT! next year could be real bad but not necissarily like this yr.

[mike815]

I do dissagree with u though abot the sst going down so i dont think next yr will be normal at all.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Good points...

Yup I am one of those predicting a doom and gloom future year...

I guess I'll learn my lesson when we get out of the active cycle and
it'll prove me wrong---but predicting stuff makes me a faster typer...
So if I'm wrong...I'm still a faster typer...

Jokes aside...I try to keep my stuff within reason...whenever I make
a prediction I put thorough analysis behind it in my prediction thread
so that it is credible...

[A1A]

So far, my novice forecast is that some of that warm water is still going to be around for next year - it's a mild winter so far.

So I'll go for making it to the T's next year - major hits Texas and Atlantic points north of Florida.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

mike:

You may disagree with me about the ssta's going down, but here are the numbers, which don't lie. The number you are to look at is the last column.

Code: Select all

YEAR  MON  NATLC    ANOM
2004  11   28.25    0.84
2004  12   27.56    0.95
2005   1   26.84    0.99
2005   2   26.52    1.06
2005   3   26.63    1.18
2005   4   26.75    0.96
2005   5   27.41    1.18
2005   6   27.82    1.19
2005   7   28.06    1.03
2005   8   28.46    0.92
2005   9   28.75    0.86
2005  10   28.62    0.76

From:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indic ... tl.indices

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

mike:

You may disagree with me about the ssta's going down, but here are the numbers, which don't lie. The number you are to look at is the last column.

Code: Select all

YEAR  MON  NATLC    ANOM
2004  11   28.25    0.84
2004  12   27.56    0.95
2005   1   26.84    0.99
2005   2   26.52    1.06
2005   3   26.63    1.18
2005   4   26.75    0.96
2005   5   27.41    1.18
2005   6   27.82    1.19
2005   7   28.06    1.03
2005   8   28.46    0.92
2005   9   28.75    0.86
2005  10   28.62    0.76

From:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indic ... tl.indices

Agreed. They are decreasing. But if some atmospheric mechanism
prompts their rise next summer then we can worry. But right now
that isn't happening fortunately. The only reason I bring this up is
for me to have a better appreciation of the possibility of some forces
at work on SSTAs...

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Right Tampa. But since they are trending downwards, it's better to err on the side of caution. You will never know, really, until July of a year if that year will be hyperactive like this one. You can say it will probably be "active" but you wouldn't be able to really put a number on it prior to that

[caribepr]

It doesn't seem to me to be a big deal if people over or under predict for next season, at this time. There will always be the *season is a dud* types along with the *we're all going to die* types on either end of the majority who watch and wait and take the affective factors into consideration.
It still, as we know from this year, often ends up being a quite sophisticated and scientifically based guessing game, in many ways. Humans are only human

[Windtalker1]

Right Tampa. But since they are trending downwards, it's better to err on the side of caution. You will never know, really, until July of a year if that year will be hyperactive like this one. You can say it will probably be "active" but you wouldn't be able to really put a number on it prior to that

Don't they usually go down this time of year anyhow

[cycloneye]

Latest graphic of anomalys in the Atlantic.

We have to watch this graphic that updates every week to see how the anomalys are in terms of the temperatures.If you watch the graphic above there has been a slight cooldown in the MDR area from West Africa to the Lesser Antilles with small pockets of 0c which those haved not been there in the past 8 months.Let's wait and see how the SSTA'S do in the next 6 months and this combined with how will ENSO will turn out in terms of el nino,neutral,la nina will tell more about how active the 2006 season will be but it is still very early in the ballgame to say with certain how the season will pan out.It is safe to say that the active cycle of seasons will continue but the hard part to look for is how active it will be.

[x-y-no]

mike:

You may disagree with me about the ssta's going down, but here are the numbers, which don't lie. The number you are to look at is the last column.

Code: Select all

YEAR  MON  NATLC    ANOM
2004  11   28.25    0.84
2004  12   27.56    0.95
2005   1   26.84    0.99
2005   2   26.52    1.06
2005   3   26.63    1.18
2005   4   26.75    0.96
2005   5   27.41    1.18
2005   6   27.82    1.19
2005   7   28.06    1.03
2005   8   28.46    0.92
2005   9   28.75    0.86
2005  10   28.62    0.76

From:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indic ... tl.indices

Agreed. They are decreasing. But if some atmospheric mechanism
prompts their rise next summer then we can worry. But right now
that isn't happening fortunately. The only reason I bring this up is
for me to have a better appreciation of the possibility of some forces
at work on SSTAs...

One might note, however, that 0.76 degree anomaly in October is higher than the 0.69 degree anomaly in October 2004. And our hyperactive 2004 season took place with average anomalies much lower than that. So I wouldn't get too excited about a downward trend yet either.

[Derek Ortt]

SST does not cause a system to form. It is a necessary condition, but not a sufficient one.

Where the heat content plays a role is increasing the MPI of already formed storms

[Scorpion]

The SSTA's were not above normal last year at this time. Noone was screaming for an active season this time last year. In fact, everyone was saying it would be more subdued than 2004. You cannot say next season will only have 15 or storms when we have no idea what the conditions will be like.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

SST does not cause a system to form. It is a necessary condition, but not a sufficient one.

Where the heat content plays a role is increasing the MPI of already formed storms

So that would mean not necessarily a greater frequency, but a greater intensity of the systems that would form if SSTAs were to rise to high numbers?

[Anonymous]

I expect an above average season...meaning that I expect to see to Hurricane Nadine or Hurricane Sandy, which is about 15-18 named storms. That seems to be the normal average in this active period. However...getting to the GREEK ALPHABET would have probably only happened twice since records were kept. 1933 (OFFICIALLY 21, but we probably had at least one more)...and 2005. That is a period of 72 years between greek names. In Hurricane Season 2077, we may see Alpha again...or before then. There is no being OVERDUE or way to mark history. Just because a 140 mph hurricane slammed into Buras, LA in 2005...does not mean that a 150 mph can't slam into Buras, LA in 2006. It's all a game of chance.

Let's say this June/July had been normal...with one named storm each month. That would mean that we have 20 named storms.

Hurricane FRANKLIN...is an August hurricane that was Katrina. Normally, the August storm is the F name...IE Frances, Fabian, ect.

Hurricane LEE...the September hurricane that was Rita. Normally, the September storm is the G-L name...IE Luis, Gilbert, Ivan, Georges.

Hurricane PHILIPPE...the October hurricane that was Wilma. Normally, October hurricanes do not get past M, N or O...however, exceptions such as Roxanne have been seen in extreme seasons like 2005, 1995, ect.

NOV 2005...we are tracking TROPICAL STORM VINCE...which is actually Delta.

The JULY is what made this season hit Greek...and that is very rare.

[Derek Ortt]

yep,

higher SST would likely mean more intense hurricanes due to a higher MPI, if all other conditions are favorable, but not increased frequency