Lets not forget..........

chadtm80 · #1 Postby **chadtm80** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 12:59 pm

I know 94L is MUCH closer to home, but lets not forget 93L out in atl... Realy seems to be holding its own out there... So while staring at 94L, dont forget to glance East every now and again over the next couple of days

JetMaxx · #2 Postby **JetMaxx** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 1:04 pm

That's a mistake I've made a time or two over the years Chad. In 1988 I was so interested in watching weak Florence approaching SE Louisiana that I almost missed big, bad Gilbert

Toni - 574 · #3 Postby **Toni - 574** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 1:04 pm

It looks good on the IR, could be a factor down the road! :roll:

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 1:08 pm

93L is my most interest system for me as I live in Puerto Rico not meaning at all that I am not watching 94L because I am doing forecasts here and i have to watch the entire atlantic.

Toni - 574 · #5 Postby **Toni - 574** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 1:20 pm

That is perfectly understandable Cyc. The system has more of a chance affecting PR. Then who knows if it is really hardy it might get closer to the lower 48.

To Bottom line it the tropics are starting to get active, after all this is what we have been waiting on! If the tropics are going to be as busy as predicted we will most likely have more than one system at a time to monitor. Keep up the good work Cyc! :wink:

chadtm80 · #6 Postby **chadtm80** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 1:24 pm

93L info

000
WHXX01 KWBC 261236
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932003) ON 20030626 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
030626 1200 030627 0000 030627 1200 030628 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.5N 36.4W 9.0N 38.3W 9.4N 40.2W 9.6N 42.4W
BAMM 8.5N 36.4W 8.8N 38.2W 9.0N 40.2W 8.9N 42.4W
A98E 8.5N 36.4W 8.7N 38.4W 9.1N 40.6W 9.9N 43.0W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
030628 1200 030629 1200 030630 1200 030701 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.8N 44.8W 9.9N 49.9W 9.9N 54.3W 10.5N 56.9W
BAMM 8.8N 45.0W 8.5N 50.8W 8.6N 56.2W 9.5N 60.2W
A98E 10.7N 45.5W 12.2N 51.1W 13.2N 56.2W 13.7N 59.6W
SHIP 42KTS 45KTS 40KTS 37KTS
DSHP 42KTS 45KTS 40KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.5N LONCUR = 36.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 8.4N LONM12 = 35.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 32.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

#7 Postby **wx247** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 2:01 pm

It will be interesting to see if the NHC mentions this in their outlook this afternoon. So far they have been mum about this area.

chadtm80 · #8 Postby **chadtm80** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 2:03 pm

I believe they will drop a line about it tonight

#9 Postby **wx247** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 2:07 pm

Are there any inhibiting factors in its continued development in the next 36 hours or so? It looks well organized to me despite its lack of deep persistent convection.

chadtm80 · #10 Postby **chadtm80** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 2:22 pm

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=white

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 2:28 pm

Garrett an inhibitor factor is that it is in a very low latidud at 7n the low so it has to get up to at least 9-10n to develop because of the equator coriolis effect.

#12 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 2:28 pm

The biggest inhibiting factor I see right now is how low it is in the ITCZ. It actually could hit SA before it has a chance. Past that, shear is not terrible and is expected to lessen some to it's west. Lots of dry air out there, but it doesn't seem to be inhibiting it ATT. In fact there are indications that outfolow is trying to set up in all quadrants. Not the time of year for a CV for sure, but this one bears watching.

From the latest TWD-TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 35W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ALONG WAVE NEAR 7N. THE LOW IS IMPROVING IN
ORGANIZATION WITH THE BEGINNING OF CURVED BAND FEATURES ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER IT IS RATHER FAR TO THE S
AND TROPICAL CYCLONES S OF 8N IN THE ATLC BASIN ARE EXTREMELY
RARE. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 34W-38W.

#13 Postby **wx247** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 2:37 pm

Thanks for the info. everyone. Looks like it needs to be watched.

weatherlover427 · #14 Postby **weatherlover427** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 2:45 pm

I see some possible outflow trying to develop on the IR imagery (sp?). Am I right?

chadtm80 · #15 Postby **chadtm80** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 6:30 pm

Yup, take a look at the Water vapor
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Toni - 574 · #16 Postby **Toni - 574** » Sat Jun 28, 2003 7:15 pm

looks good,but what do you think about it's future?

Lets not forget..........

Lets not forget..........

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